Rest In Piss Mobile XI

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2010-06-21
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Rest in Piss Mobile XI
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 Fenrir.Niflheim
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By Fenrir.Niflheim 2021-03-24 09:02:32  
endxen said: »
Issue with FFXI is they didn't optimize the code when they ended console support. So now you have a coding mess that is probably an nightmare and expensive to figure out how to make work. Also ffxi has a very small player base compared to those other games so there isn't a potential profit return vs. expense. WoW still has a player base over 5.1M, FFXI probably has less than 20k.

20k seems pretty pulled out of a hat. there are a total of 108,235 active characters using the AH on ffxi. obviously we will never have an accurate number of the current subs for ffxi because it is not something SE shares, but I would venture a guess that 108,235 boils down to more than 20k


heres the data minimum income calculation that is in the database tab of this site:
Quote:
Minimum FFXI income: $182,316.75/month ($2,187,801.00/year) from 6765 accounts
The minimum income value is determined by assuming the bare minimum amount of income Square-Enix would have to receive to obtain these active character numbers. The following assumptions are made:

  • No one has the extra Mog Wardrobes

  • Active characters are grouped into batches of 16, as secondary character slots/mules are cheaper than new accounts


Obviously neither of those is true, but the purpose of this exercise is to show the absolute minimum amount of money the game is bringing in, to remind people that FFXI is still quite profitable.
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By Mattelot 2021-03-24 09:29:12  
It is pulled out of a hat. I posted a site that shows significantly more than that.
 
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 Fenrir.Niflheim
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By Fenrir.Niflheim 2021-03-24 09:38:28  
olah said: »
my guesstimate is 10k tops active.
10k x 15$ = 150k per month
no reason to make a bad guess when that ffxiah.com has the data to support a high number ffxiah database.
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By Mattelot 2021-03-24 09:50:42  
This site only accounts for 10% of total characters and relies on AH use. MMO Pop shows over 1M "characters" and and 78k active characters.

Some characters are mules, some do not use the AH, some only use the AH.
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By Asura.Eiryl 2021-03-24 09:52:27  
While neither is super correct, that other site is grossly inaccurate. It even disagrees with itself on it's own pages.
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By Mattelot 2021-03-24 09:54:01  
Different stats.

Either way, unless we ask SE, we won't have 100% accurate data. But you cannot go by stats that only account for a small % sample size and certain circumstances to even account for that.
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By Fenrir.Niflheim 2021-03-24 10:48:32  
Mattelot said: »
Different stats.

Either way, unless we ask SE, we won't have 100% accurate data. But you cannot go by stats that only account for a small % sample size and certain circumstances to even account for that.

but you can use it to determine the minimum which is in this case is solid enough for an argument. with the we have ffxiah.com clear traceability of how the data is collected and it's short comings.

I can't find the info on the traceability for the site you linked, but I also cant seem to click a link without being redirected to another site so having a hard time navigating the page.
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By RadialArcana 2021-03-24 10:56:48  
MMO-population is a complete nonsense website, they just pull numbers from wherever.

Anyone can make a website and put numbers on it, doesn't have to be accurate. It just needs to make ad-revenue.
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By Chaplin 2021-03-24 11:00:42  
While this place is cool and has good uses, it’s population data is probably the least reliable of any site.
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By Mattelot 2021-03-24 11:01:14  
RadialArcana said: »
MMO-population is a complete nonsense website, they just pull numbers from wherever.

Anyone can make a website and put numbers on it, doesn't have to be accurate. It just needs to make ad-revenue.

Do you have evidence of this?
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By Asura.Eiryl 2021-03-24 11:03:28  
Chaplin said: »
While this place is cool and has good uses, it’s population data is probably the least reliable of any site.

Yes and no. It's parameters are just too large.

Tracks auction house activity, this is something everyone does. It just cant tell a salesmule from a main. easy fixes really if it were just changing some variables in the tracker.

Mattelot said: »
RadialArcana said: »
MMO-population is a complete nonsense website, they just pull numbers from wherever.

Anyone can make a website and put numbers on it, doesn't have to be accurate. It just needs to make ad-revenue.

Do you have evidence of this?

being that their own numbers conflict with... their own numbers, that's pretty good proof.
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By Rooks 2021-03-24 11:07:00  
Chaplin said: »
While this place is cool and has good uses, it’s population data is probably the least reliable of any site.
If you're going to sockpuppet, don't do it for something that'll make me notice, Mattelot.

Our data is pulled directly from auction house transactions - the actual game. The math blurb on the database page is there to paint a picture of the absolute minimum population, to convey the fact that the game is still financially viable. I've never claimed it to be representative of overall population. That said, it's at least an objective measure, so until I see some methodology for anyone else's methods, suggesting it's not the best we have is just flat out stupid.
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By Mattelot 2021-03-24 11:09:02  
Asura.Eiryl said: »
being that they're own numbers conflict with... their own numbers, that's pretty good proof.

Can you show what numbers you believe conflict?
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By Asura.Eiryl 2021-03-24 11:09:56  


The "rank" is even different. it's 25 on the main page and 37 on the XI page.
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By Mattelot 2021-03-24 11:11:22  
78k active players. That many log in per day. Those are not the same thing. Some have mules that they do not log into every day.

I have 3 storage mules. I may log 1 in every other day to transfer stuff. So that would be 1 active player and sometimes 2-3 daily players. I know others who have a dozen mules.
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By Bahamut.Wizardstick 2021-03-24 11:13:05  
Mattelot said: »
RadialArcana said: »
MMO-population is a complete nonsense website, they just pull numbers from wherever.

Anyone can make a website and put numbers on it, doesn't have to be accurate. It just needs to make ad-revenue.

Do you have evidence of this?

Actually, I think it's up to mmo-population (and those sourcing it) to provide evidence that it's numbers are valid, not those questioning the validity.
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By Mattelot 2021-03-24 11:16:59  
Bahamut.Wizardstick said: »
Mattelot said: »
RadialArcana said: »
MMO-population is a complete nonsense website, they just pull numbers from wherever.

Anyone can make a website and put numbers on it, doesn't have to be accurate. It just needs to make ad-revenue.

Do you have evidence of this?

Actually, I think it's up to mmo-population (and those sourcing it) to provide evidence that it's numbers are valid, not those questioning the validity.

They're simply providing data. They're not making any claims. They're not trying to invalidate someone's data. If someone is saying they're pulling random numbers, that person is responsible for proving they are.
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By RadialArcana 2021-03-24 11:17:02  
I played Conan Exiles for years, it peaked at 50k daily users on steam and averages around 12k a day now. Not 500k, that's ridiculous.

FF14 has never ever been above 1 million active players, it's not hard to figure this out. Not far after launch they stated all their games combined had around 1million active players. Since then, they have added no new servers so unless they invented special mega servers (they didn't) the game has not gone above that peak and certainly not to the 2.4m it says.

Also there are scrape sites that do what the database here does here and they show it averages around 400-700k depending on expansions, updates etc Numbers might be off a bit but they fluctuate around those numbers.

There is no way Star Trek Online has 200k daily players either, not even close.

FFXI is probably around 40-50k, based on the database here.

Ultimately, you can tell it's nonsense because how did they get these numbers? They don't say and the companies don't give this out so there is no way they can have it for all those games. I saw one website that did something similar to this and they calculated player numbers by checking how many people were joined to each reddit sub for the games.

All they do is take numbers from any source they can online, accurate or not.
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By Mattelot 2021-03-24 11:19:07  
RadialArcana said: »
I played Conan Exiles for years, it peaked at 50k daily users on steam and averages around 12k a day now. Not 500k, that's ridiculous.

FF14 has never ever been above 1 million active players, it's not hard to figure this out. Not far after launch they stated all their games combined had around 1million active players. Since then, they have added no new servers so unless they invented special mega servers (they didn't) the game has not gone above that peak and certainly not to the 2.4m it says.

Also there are scrape sites that do what the database here does here and they show it averages around 400-600k depending on expansions, updates etc

There is no way Star Trek Online has 200k daily players either, not even close.

FFXI is probably around 40-50k, based on the database here.

Ultimately, you can tell it's nonsense because how did they get these numbers? They don't say and the companies don't give this out so there is no way they can have it. I saw one website that did something similar to this and they calculated player numbers by checking how many people were joined to each reddit sub for the games.

All they do is take numbers from any source they can online, accurate or not.

If Joe Blow comes in here and copies and pastes your comment and inserts completely different numbers, does that make him right?

Your numbers are anecdotal at best. Not saying you may or may not be right.
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By RadialArcana 2021-03-24 11:21:31  
Steamcharts give numbers of players including peaks, which are taken directly from steam.

The other ones I stated the reasoning.
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By Mattelot 2021-03-24 11:22:24  
Steamcharts only tracks steam. Not all games are played on Steam.
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By RadialArcana 2021-03-24 11:24:14  
I played Conan Exiles for a long time, it's not that popular on consoles at all because it's near broken.

Ultimately though, if a website wants have any kind of credibility they have to tell you how they got those numbers. They don't, they just say "estimates"
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By Mattelot 2021-03-24 11:26:44  
And many of us have played FFXI for a long time yet we can't seem to agree on how many people play. Being popular is subjective.

They don't always have to tell you up front how they acquired their data. That doesn't always validate it either just because not every person will accept or feel the method of acquisition is good or bad.

Point being that they're not making claims. Someone saying that they're just making up numbers is a claim that needs backed up. Otherwise, it just sounds salty.
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By Asura.Aeonova 2021-03-24 11:26:47  
Always good when I can sneak this meme in due to its relevance and not trigger the Politics and Religion deletion.

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By RadialArcana 2021-03-24 11:32:09  
Quote:
It's difficult to track hidden MMO subscriber numbers, but we do our best!

By combining online social activity (muh reddit activity), sentiment tracking(social media statistics), public statistics(PR), rankings (wat) and more (dat more)

MMO Populations estimates the total subscribers, players and active daily players for the top MMOs. Above is the total number of tracked players by the site.

https://mmo-population.com/charts/players
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By Mattelot 2021-03-24 11:33:39  
Your parenthesis comments are assumptions.

Why not email them and ask some specifics if it bothers you so much to discredit them.
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By Fenrir.Niflheim 2021-03-24 11:40:05  
Mattelot said: »
Bahamut.Wizardstick said: »
Mattelot said: »
RadialArcana said: »
MMO-population is a complete nonsense website, they just pull numbers from wherever.

Anyone can make a website and put numbers on it, doesn't have to be accurate. It just needs to make ad-revenue.

Do you have evidence of this?

Actually, I think it's up to mmo-population (and those sourcing it) to provide evidence that it's numbers are valid, not those questioning the validity.

They're simply providing data. They're not making any claims. They're not trying to invalidate someone's data. If someone is saying they're pulling random numbers, that person is responsible for proving they are.

Interesting take, so if I say you kick 12 puppies every day, I am not making any claims? feels like I claimed you kick 12 puppies a day with no evidence other than say...
mmo-population said:
The Player and Daily login numbers are estimations based on subscriber numbers and online sentiment
I leaned heavily in the "online sentiment" from my data pool to reach 12 puppies.
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By Mattelot 2021-03-24 11:41:36  
Fenrir.Niflheim said: »
Interesting take, so if I say you kick 12 puppies every day, I am not making any claims? feels like I claimed you kick 12 puppies a day with no evidence other than say...

There is a difference between claims and statistics. Surely you know that...
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By Asura.Sirris 2021-03-24 11:49:15  
RadialArcana said: »
The thing with me I think is that when I quit FFXI (before going back to it a few years later), I literally went and played a mass of MMORPG titles one after the other and I kept seeing the same basic formula in a different skin every single time. I got really sick and tired of it in a way people that maybe didn't play a lot of other titles would notice. To them it was all new and cool, and to ex wow players it was just comfortable.

Blade and Soul, Gw2, Star trek, Tera, Eso, ff14..same stuff over and over.

When you say something is a wow clone it's that it -feels- like the same game you played last time and that many foundational systems are there and very similar, and that is kind of what you get from 14 in the first few months at least. When you get right into it you'll get more depth and difference as is the case with every mmorpg based on wow but you have to like the game enough to get to that point.

Yeah this just isn't true. Guild Wars 2 and Elder Scrolls Online are very different games from World of Warcraft. BnS and Tera have much different combat even though they have some similarities.

RadialArcana said: »
I know people like to put Yoshida on a golden pedestal like he is some visionary game development genius but he really isn't, he isn't a game developer as much as he is a very smart businessman. He heavily pandered to the WoW audience with ARR in many ways because he saw that appealing to ffxi players was a bust. I still remember him going to Blizzcon to get a signed copy of WoW, getting a selfie with the lead game dev of wow and posting it on twitter. Then saying how he thought it was the way forward and all 14 devs needed to study it because he was a life long fan of wow etc. He didn't do this because he loved wow, he did it to try attract wow players.

Ff14 ARR and Yoshi were successful due to misleading marketing (muh 14 million), OTT monetization that I have not seen in any other mmo on the market at this level, appealing to a large popular audiences players in the most cynical way possible to try syphon some of them away and turning a large number of the playerbase into a near cult that are afraid to criticize anything the developers do. FF14 is more a success due to these things rather than being an amazing innovative MMORPG.

I mean, the dude took an absolutely failed main-entry Final Fantasy game and turned it into Square-Enix's second-most profitable game ever. And he has been smart at looking at the ways Blizzard has failed with World of Warcraft and not doing those same things, while appealing to jaded or burnt-out WoW players. And for what it's worth something like 100m people have played WoW... why wouldn't another MMO dev target those people, versus FFXI which probably has at-most 5-10% of that number of players all-time?

I don't fall into the "FFXIV is the end-all" MMO crowd but you are greatly diminishing what Yoshi-P did with FFXIV. Did you play 1.0? It *** sucked. And XIV now at 5.45 is widely considered the best game in the genre.
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