Election 2020 The Horse Race (Not Misspelled)

this is assuming that people are telling the truth 100% of the time.

Trump didn't have a vast majority of major media outlets working in his favor, unlike Clinton. The coronation was well-coordinated. it was her election to lose.

But as for polls, if you want frank talk where I occasionally go against my "side", I'm going to expect some in return. I know you love defending your team without giving an inch on anything, but you gotta work with me here.

With that said, we'll start with the data. It's pretty similar to where it was four years ago. Biden is better off than Clinton was in terms of the popular vote, but the top battleground average is practically the same. Trump's favorability rating is up nearly four points from then. There is also a huge enthusiasm gap between Trump's and Biden's supporters in Trump's favor. How that will play out is anyone's guess.

Now here's where I interject my opinion. No, I don't think most scientific polls from legitimate pollsters are fake (though I often question their methodology on a professional level), nor do I think they're especially useful at this point. I don't even start my prediction models until a month out, especially when the race is still competitive. Do I think people are afraid of losing their jobs for responding to polls in favor of Trump? Probably a statistically insignificant amount. Do I think everyone is honest when answering phone polling questions? No, I do not. Voting is private and secret, so nobody is going to get in your face for exhibiting wrongthink. It's not uncommon for people to say what they want others to hear, especially in an interview with a stranger. That being said, the aforementioned enthusiasm gap derived from the same polls suggests that this is not the case with Trump's base. If there is an effect, it's likely to exhibit more strongly with the centrists, independents, and/or other fence-sitters. But since I don't have a proven model to account for that unknown quantity, I don't factor it in to my calculations. I keep my opinions and my math separate.

I'm pretty sure he was thinking that he was picking this Kamala Harris:



Unfortunately he died a couple days ago, so they used the other Kamala Harris since the logos were already printed.

Anywho, back to being serious. I think if people ever get back to being self-aware in a decade or two, there is a real potential for sociological studies on how the Left and their associated media managed to galvanize Trump's supporters so heavily. Even at their craziest, the poll numbers are just insanely stable in comparison to those of past presidents. Even in the middle of the Year of the Trainwreck, his aggregate approval numbers are closer to his highest point than they are to his lowest.

I honestly believe that Trump's approval could be several points lower if he had received fair treatment by the media throughout his Presidency. Instead, he gets the benefit of being the underdog fighting against "the system" because they overplayed their hands so friggin' hard at every turn. They cried Wolf every time they heard a twig snap, so now the real problems take a back seat to the praise he gets from his own people for telling the alarmists to just shut up already.

An incredibly narrow margin in 3 states she never campaigned in.

The GOP spent over 20 years and and several hundred millions of the taxpayer's dollars demonizing her*. Best investment they ever made.

And that announcement broke department rules, custom and protocol.

But yes, with a better campaign she would have won.

*I often pointed this out to dem friends.

Don't worry. The Dems made sure that that was repaid in kind many times over, although it was kind of a fiasco for them in the end.

Washington’s top elections official warns of ‘very concerning’ changes at Postal Service that could impact voting
The Spokesman-Review (Spokane WA)


Trump admits he's refusing to fund the US Postal Service to sabotage mail-in voting
Business Insider

Same ***: New Day; Part 1301

kind of a disingenuous opinion based on trumps action to not bail out the USPS. He's been against providing funds since at least may 2020.

https://www.ffxiah.com/forum/topic/54807/save-the-post-office/

Not disingenuous at all. He wanted the USPS to be "out of business" for the exact same reason then as now.

Nothing has changed in regard to the why.

is that so? I didn't see you bring up that trump wanted to sabotage the election by not funding the USPS back in may.

Hell, I say let's keep the post office as it is.

It's a living example as to why socialism will never work!

"I" didn't say it, because it was common knowledge.
May 8, 2020 / 7:11 AM

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/26/politics/mail-in-ballot-vote-by-mail-trump/index.html

it was so common knowledge that no one mentioned anything about mail in ballots in the discussion about saving the USPS.

lets keep that narrative train going ~ choo choo

I'll play a dumb game out of the sake of boredom.

Come up with one reason other than mail in ballots that the USPS should not exist that trump would give a ***about.

Spoiler; he wouldn't and won't give two *** about the USPS after the election.

It's unsustainable.

Ever since it became a "private" entity, it has lost more money than it was under government control. Mainly due to the fact that it is the only "private" company in the US that is federal government funded and controlled.

If it fails it fails, he doesn't give a ***. Never has. Never will.

to quote the legend himself.

If he wasn't president, sure.

Problem is, he is.

While I would like to see the continued existence of the USPS, having it wholly dictated by Congress is not the way to do it.

But, tbh, it's better to keep USPS under the control of Congress as an example of why government-run business practices will always fail, instead of letting USPS go full private and some idiot socialists decide that socialism works.

Edit: After reading my post, I removed the unnecessary parts.

There is no different versions of Donnie. Donnie is Donnie regardless of title.

It doesn't directly affect him at all, under any circumstance.

And if you keep that ***up I'm reporting personal attacks again ***. We've been over this.

It was unnecessary, but not a personal attack. I'm sorry you feel that way.

I removed it though, so don't get twisted up in knots over it.

But keep dreaming that it doesn't affect him. He is the President, like it or not.

Trump stokes 'birther' theory about Kamala Harris
BBC

Kamala Harris faces the 'black enough' question she helped Barack Obama grapple with 12 years ago
Washington Examiner

Wait... We can edit again????

You can delete, repost and call it an edit, which is what he did

To be fair, she kind of created this herself when she swore into the Senate as the first, "Indian-American."

https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/article124327739.html

I wonder if her DNA test shows she is 1/1024th Indian.

I'm calling it now!

The usual suspects here will accuse Barr of attempting to rig the election in Trump's favor. Either that or accusing Trump of attempting to rig the election in his favor.

Stay tuned for more details later today!