New HTBF Shinryu 2.0

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New HTBF Shinryu 2.0
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By SimonSes 2021-12-30 18:32:08  
Felgarr said: »
Players can only perceive that additional TH forces the appearance of an additional drop slot. No player can conclude or dismiss that TH does not also increase the occurrence of an item in that slot. (SE has given us this table to strongly support that TH does in fact do this, despite that can not observe its outcome in a deterministic way).

Ofc we can. It's super easy to test on anything with higher base chance distribution. Like Defending Ring, which is 5% base I believe. With TH12 it would be like 15% and it isn't. There are more obvious shared slot items that were tested in the past I think. Don't remember them now, but you can find them, if you are interested.

Also think about it logically. If there is few items sharing the slot. Why would TH increase distribution for one, but not the other? Why it would increase distribution for Knife and not the Ring?
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 Fenrir.Velner
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By Fenrir.Velner 2021-12-30 18:52:52  
Felgarr said: »
Fenrir.Velner said: »
Asura.Eiryl said: »
All of the ilevel in it are "ultra rare"

It's their own chart, disagree if you want, it's their own ***.

And arguing about semantics won't raise your drop percentages so save the effort.

It's not semantics; you're misapplying the mechanic. TH only increases the chance of a drop slot to open, none of which fall in the "Ultra Rare" category, and has no impact on the distribution within that drop slot.

In fact, it doesn't make sense to label the non-accessories as "Ultra Rare" because that terminology only applies within the context of Treasure Hunter... which doesn't affect the appearance of non-accessories if a drop slot is open. I mean, you can certainly label them "ultra rare" based on their % chance to appear, but NOW we're merely talking semantics.

Players can only perceive that additional TH forces the appearance of an additional drop slot. No player can conclude or assert definitively, that TH does not also increase the occurrence of an item in that slot. (In fact, SE has given us this TH table to strongly support that TH does in fact do this, despite that a player can not observe its outcome in a deterministic way, sample sizes being what they are).

Take, for example, the guaranteed drop slot on VD. If TH increases the drop rate of the 'Ultra Rare' items, wouldn't it have to *decrease* the drop chance of the common items? Is there any indication anywhere ever that TH has the chance to *decrease* drop rates?
 Sylph.Reain
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By Sylph.Reain 2021-12-30 18:58:52  
Square-Enix already said TH doesn't affect defending ring.

https://forum.square-enix.com/ffxi/threads/49931
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 Lakshmi.Buukki
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By Lakshmi.Buukki 2021-12-30 19:13:42  
I have always despised when SE made abilities that DONT work on something. Just arbitrary.

"Ignores Utsusemi"
"Immune to Geomancy"
"Migawari doesn't block this move that takes 10,000 HP"
"Treasure Hunter only works for THIS treasure, not THAT treasure"

I am used to it by now, but I can completely understand why newer/more casual players are always totally confused with how this game and it's mechanics work.
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By Draylo 2021-12-30 19:21:18  
It's been that way for almost every single Final Fantasy game, they always have those boss fights that ignores certain established mechanics.
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 Asura.Geriond
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By Asura.Geriond 2021-12-30 19:53:11  
On a slightly dkfferent note, I just got my third rare item (scythe, then helm, and now knife) after somewhere around 500-600 VD kills with TH4. I have not been dboxing thw items, so duplicates of the first two are possible.
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 Asura.Eiryl
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By Asura.Eiryl 2021-12-30 20:16:44  
Here's a fun experiment, just for knowledge, not jimmy rustling.

You spent 5 minutes per fight + getting merits and warping to and from and queuing etc. you're going to be hundreds of hours deep by the time you finally get a cloak.

When you do, write down every time you cast ilvl impact and tally up the time you saved by having a full impact land instead of a half duration og twilight impact (it doesn't count if you kill the mob before the duration would've worn etc). See if it ever makes itself worthwhile by balancing time gained and time spent.

That's how I justify expensive purchases, will it have paid for itself or not. If I sink 100 hours into this, will it earn me back 100 hours by doing 10,000 kills 3 seconds faster each time.

Example; Say you fight a mob that takes exactly 2 minutes to kill when impact is on. How much faster is it to kill with 120 seconds of impact, vs 90 seconds of impact and ~40 seconds of no impact. Lets say you lose 10 seconds. You have to do that thirtysix thousand(+) times for it to start gaining value. It's really fun to think about.
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By Mattelot 2021-12-30 20:56:22  
Asura.Eiryl said: »
Here's a fun experiment, just for knowledge, not jimmy rustling.

You spent 5 minutes per fight + getting merits and warping to and from and queuing etc. you're going to be hundreds of hours deep by the time you finally get a cloak.

When you do, write down every time you cast ilvl impact and tally up the time you saved by having a full impact land instead of a half duration og twilight impact (it doesn't count if you kill the mob before the duration would've worn etc). See if it ever makes itself worthwhile by balancing time gained and time spent.

That's how I justify expensive purchases, will it have paid for itself or not. If I sink 100 hours into this, will it earn me back 100 hours by doing 10,000 kills 3 seconds faster each time.

I'm kind of in the same boat. However, no matter how rarely something will get used, there will always be those guys who feel they absolutely have to have it. Sometimes not because they're actually going to use but because they want to show everyone they have it and hope for some "ooooh's! or aaaaah's!"
 Lakshmi.Buukki
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By Lakshmi.Buukki 2021-12-30 21:05:31  
Why do you care how long it takes someone else to get a very rare item, and how rarely they will use it? If it's fun for them to get a new shiny, it doesn't really matter.
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By Mattelot 2021-12-30 22:22:03  
I nor anyone else said they do care.
 Lakshmi.Buukki
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By Lakshmi.Buukki 2021-12-30 22:39:48  
Eiryl has to care. He just concocted an elaborate mathematical hypothetical he wants someone to follow, comparing the time investment for drop, Impact Duration, Time saved in fight, time spent re-meritting, etc., and how that might not be equal to what you get back from the cloak. He then said thats exactly how HE measures whether something is worth it for him. So yes, Eiryl cares.
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 Asura.Eiryl
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By Asura.Eiryl 2021-12-30 22:41:54  
I care enough to mention how silly it is. Not if you waste your time actually doing it.
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 Asura.Geriond
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By Asura.Geriond 2021-12-30 22:49:34  
Nah, it's not silly. Time spent and saved is definitely not how I judge whether something is worth doing to me or not. If it was, I wouldn't have participated in any content from the last 5 years other than buying T3 Odyssey clears.
 Lakshmi.Buukki
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By Lakshmi.Buukki 2021-12-30 23:05:11  
Asura.Eiryl said: »
I care enough to mention how silly it is. Not if you waste your time actually doing it.

It's only silly to you because you like to pretend to not play this game for personal enjoyment.

If someone wants to spend their time mathing out the best use of their time in FFXI, power to them. Grinding a super rare item? cool Spending hours making and updating spreadsheets to improve their game experience by a fraction of a percent? Kudos. I see a lot of this online, but would never say people are wasting their time. People can spend their time in game doing whatever they want to do, because it's a game. If it fulfills a need for them and they get enjoyment out of it, that might be enough for them. Just remember that you're "wasting" time playing the exact same video game (and posting about it online =P) as someone else who you say is "wasting" their time grinding away at something you claim to not care about.
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 Fenrir.Velner
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By Fenrir.Velner 2021-12-30 23:15:14  
Asura.Eiryl said: »
Here's a fun experiment, just for knowledge, not jimmy rustling.

You spent 5 minutes per fight + getting merits and warping to and from and queuing etc. you're going to be hundreds of hours deep by the time you finally get a cloak.

When you do, write down every time you cast ilvl impact and tally up the time you saved by having a full impact land instead of a half duration og twilight impact (it doesn't count if you kill the mob before the duration would've worn etc). See if it ever makes itself worthwhile by balancing time gained and time spent.

That's how I justify expensive purchases, will it have paid for itself or not. If I sink 100 hours into this, will it earn me back 100 hours by doing 10,000 kills 3 seconds faster each time.

Example; Say you fight a mob that takes exactly 2 minutes to kill when impact is on. How much faster is it to kill with 120 seconds of impact, vs 90 seconds of impact and ~40 seconds of no impact. Lets say you lose 10 seconds. You have to do that thirtysix thousand(+) times for it to start gaining value. It's really fun to think about.

No. That implies there is some cost/benefit analysis that we're apparently supposed to undertake when we're all here *checks notes* playing a video game. As long as I'm not bothering anybody else, I'll enjoy it how I like, thanks.
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By SimonSes 2021-12-31 02:22:00  
Lakshmi.Buukki said: »
Just remember that you're "wasting" time playing the exact same video game (and posting about it online =P) as someone else who you say is "wasting" their time grinding away at something you claim to not care about.

Don't forget you are talking to RMT. He will tell you he is not wasting time playing FFXI, because he gets $$ from it. No wonder he has such measurement system for this game, when that's his job :) He just forgot or can't believe we are still playing only for our enjoyment :)
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By Felgarr 2021-12-31 06:00:50  
Fenrir.Velner said: »
Felgarr said: »
Fenrir.Velner said: »
Asura.Eiryl said: »
All of the ilevel in it are "ultra rare"

It's their own chart, disagree if you want, it's their own ***.

And arguing about semantics won't raise your drop percentages so save the effort.

It's not semantics; you're misapplying the mechanic. TH only increases the chance of a drop slot to open, none of which fall in the "Ultra Rare" category, and has no impact on the distribution within that drop slot.

In fact, it doesn't make sense to label the non-accessories as "Ultra Rare" because that terminology only applies within the context of Treasure Hunter... which doesn't affect the appearance of non-accessories if a drop slot is open. I mean, you can certainly label them "ultra rare" based on their % chance to appear, but NOW we're merely talking semantics.

Players can only perceive that additional TH forces the appearance of an additional drop slot. No player can conclude or assert definitively, that TH does not also increase the occurrence of an item in that slot. (In fact, SE has given us this TH table to strongly support that TH does in fact do this, despite that a player can not observe its outcome in a deterministic way, sample sizes being what they are).

Take, for example, the guaranteed drop slot on VD. If TH increases the drop rate of the 'Ultra Rare' items, wouldn't it have to *decrease* the drop chance of the common items? Is there any indication anywhere ever that TH has the chance to *decrease* drop rates?

This kind of speculation is why we, as players cannot discount the effects of TH on any given drop slot. We cannot conclude definitively here because:

1.) SE can choose when some items are fixed to s slot (Defending Ring, Earring)
2.) SE has not said how to expect how TH behaves when Ultra Rare / Rare etc, items can appear in the same slot. This is part of their secret sauce.

We cannot infer out of a sense of fairness that more TH decreases very rare occurrences because it must also increase Ultra Rare occurrences for a given a slot. I imagine here, that this is true to be honest. However, there is another probably another TH/drop table (circumstantial) that SE is not sharing with us.
 Shiva.Thorny
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By Shiva.Thorny 2021-12-31 07:51:42  
Felgarr said: »
This kind of speculation is why we, as players cannot discount the effects of TH on any given drop slot. We cannot conclude definitively here because:

1.) SE can choose when some items are fixed to s slot (Defending Ring, Earring)
2.) SE has not said how to expect how TH behaves when Ultra Rare / Rare etc, items can appear in the same slot. This is part of their secret sauce.

We cannot infer out of a sense of fairness that more TH decreases very rare occurrences because it must also increase Ultra Rare occurrences for a given a slot. I imagine here, that this is true to be honest. However, there is another probably another TH/drop table (circumstantial) that SE is not sharing with us.

We have data samples large enough to conclude that shared item slots are not constrained to the same categories as typical drops(any shared drop slot with 3 items works out close to 33-33-33 even with TH0, while the highest potential rate would be 24, you can get a sample beyond margin of error in minutes using escha NMs). We can easily prove that treasure hunter increases the chance of a slot loading(use TH vs no TH on a ruaun T3, you'll have a sample size beyond margin of error in an hour or 2).

With that in mind, I don't think it's unfair to conclude that TH is applied to the chance of the slot dropping, and has no effect on which item drops within the slot's distribution. That's what everyone knowledgable has been going by, it's how private servers were coded, and it makes sense. Good enough for me.
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By Mattelot 2021-12-31 12:06:54  
Fenrir.Velner said: »
No. That implies there is some cost/benefit analysis that we're apparently supposed to undertake

He didn't say anybody was supposed to. He trigger-warned the comment beforehand. It's just interesting to think sometimes about how much effort/money is put into certain things for even sometimes narrowly marginal increases (if any). Some people do certain things just for fun and that's fine... different strokes.

Fenrir.Velner said: »
we're all here *checks notes* playing a video game.

I wish more people who say this actually believe it.
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 Valefor.Cinzia
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By Valefor.Cinzia 2022-01-01 12:43:46  
Got it on about 10 runs


Knife shortly dropped after that, but nothing afterwards 40+ runs.

VD with TH9 if that makes any difference.
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By AegParm 2022-01-01 13:31:54  
Congrats Cinzia!

I'm joining the cloak club as well. Happy New Years to us :P

9/2050 (199 Scythe, 389 Dagger, Mail 1122, Helm 1466, Cloak 2050) on E w/TH8+

The scale of *** pain has officially shifted from "1 to Lilith" to "1 to Shinryu".
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By Felgarr 2022-01-02 00:11:55  
Shiva.Thorny said: »
Felgarr said: »
This kind of speculation is why we, as players cannot discount the effects of TH on any given drop slot. We cannot conclude definitively here because:

1.) SE can choose when some items are fixed to s slot (Defending Ring, Earring)
2.) SE has not said how to expect how TH behaves when Ultra Rare / Rare etc, items can appear in the same slot. This is part of their secret sauce.

We cannot infer out of a sense of fairness that more TH decreases very rare occurrences because it must also increase Ultra Rare occurrences for a given a slot. I imagine here, that this is true to be honest. However, there is another probably another TH/drop table (circumstantial) that SE is not sharing with us.

We have data samples large enough to conclude that shared item slots are not constrained to the same categories as typical drops(any shared drop slot with 3 items works out close to 33-33-33 even with TH0, while the highest potential rate would be 24, you can get a sample beyond margin of error in minutes using escha NMs). We can easily prove that treasure hunter increases the chance of a slot loading(use TH vs no TH on a ruaun T3, you'll have a sample size beyond margin of error in an hour or 2).

With that in mind, I don't think it's unfair to conclude that TH is applied to the chance of the slot dropping, and has no effect on which item drops within the slot's distribution. That's what everyone knowledgable has been going by, it's how private servers were coded, and it makes sense. Good enough for me.

1.) Yes, fair to assume that slots unlocked by TH have a fixed drop rate (SE alluded to this with their TH table) but again, not guaranteed.
2.) Conversely, I think that other drop slots, or always-present drop slots can still have modifiable drop rates based on the amount of TH present. For HTBFs, it's only a few extra lines of code and a few small tables to alter drop rates by amount of TH present for always-present slots.

If #2 is true, it's easy to invalidate #1. This means TH-triggered drop slots can also have TH-modifiable drop rates for items in that slot. We just don't know, until SE tells us.
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By Asura.Geriond 2022-01-02 00:47:53  
There is no need to know in an absolute sense when our current conclusions are of a sufficiently high chance of being correct based on the combination of our testing, of SE's statements, and pattern recognition. We have a statement from SE of one guaranteed slot (D ring/Pixie earring) being unaffected and every other test on guaranteed slots showing the same result, with zero tests showing the opposite result. In addition, SE was responding to a question requesting to know how exactly TH works, so your idea requires that they were arbitrarily leaving out informstion despite being so exact with what they were giving us alreadg.

Finally, your supposition for #2 goes directly against the desctiption of the job trait, which means it goes into the same territory like believing Store TP might increase drop rate simply because the effects might be small enough thst it's impossible to know for certain.

There is very, very close to zero chance that your supposition is true.
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By Felgarr 2022-01-02 01:08:51  
Asura.Geriond said: »
There is no need to know in an absolute sense when our current conclusions are of a sufficiently high chance of being correct based on the combination of our testing, of SE's statements, and pattern recognition. We have a statement from SE of one guaranteed slot (D ring/Pixie earring) being unaffected and every other test on guaranteed slots showing the same result, with zero tests showing the opposite result. In addition, SE was responding to a question requesting to know how exactly TH works, so your idea requires that they were arbitrarily leaving out informstion despite being so exact with what they were giving us alreadg.

Finally, your supposition for #2 goes directly against the desctiption of the job trait, which means it goes into the same territory like believing Store TP might increase drop rate simply because the effects might be small enough thst it's impossible to know for certain.

There is very, very close to zero chance that your supposition is true.

I'm leaning in on your point here. Let me ask a different way: If SE tells us that D.Ring/Pixie Earring's drop slot is unaffected by TH, why do folks take that assertion to mean other NMs, battlefields, etc, also behave the same way, that their guaranteed drop slots, must also have Rare/Ultra Rare items, that they too must also be unaffected by TH? This is what I'm not buying that many people readily accept.
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By Fenrir.Velner 2022-01-03 01:46:57  
Felgarr said: »

I'm leaning in on your point here. Let me ask a different way: If SE tells us that D.Ring/Pixie Earring's drop slot is unaffected by TH, why do folks take that assertion to mean other NMs, battlefields, etc, also behave the same way, that their guaranteed drop slots, must also have Rare/Ultra Rare items, that they too must also be unaffected by TH? This is what I'm not buying that many people readily accept.

The simple reason I "readily accept" it is that for TH to increase the drop chance of one item in a shared slot, it would have to drop the chance of other items in that slot. It's not impossible, I suppose, but taken with the other points above, I can't believe that would be the case. TH increases the chance of obtaining treasure. . . except sometimes it decreases it.
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By Haorhu8 2022-01-08 07:04:58  
Corsair which rolls do you use in easy mode? I use tact / chaos clear in 8min SB spam + trust aoe healing / mp unfortunately for 2 days Trust die towards 50% ~ 40% of the fight ... Thanks in advance
 Asura.Sechs
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By Asura.Sechs 2022-01-08 09:20:40  
Which trusts are you using? After receiving useful suggestions in these thread I moved to the following trusts, in this exact order:

Selh'teus (does lotsa AoE healing and restores mp)
Valaineral (not much as a tank, but mostly as an AoE healer)
Sylvie UC
Kingofhearts (more HP than Koru-Moru)
Ygnas (could use Monberaux or any other healer in here, really)

You lose march from Joachim, but from my experience the large amount of AoE damage makes so Joachim uses wrong songs most of the time so even with him you end up not having March for a large amount of time.

With this setup I can kill in <3m on MNK and something like ~5m on THF if I recall.
If you have Naegling and TPbonus I'm sure you'll get no more than 6 mins kills on COR.
 Asura.Eiryl
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By Asura.Eiryl 2022-01-08 09:22:30  
Trust HP +50% campaign is over, that's why they're dying now
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By Haorhu8 2022-01-09 11:58:51  
Thats why thanks all :)
 Fenrir.Velner
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By Fenrir.Velner 2022-01-18 11:56:04  
Hi friends

Is there any indication that the little note below as part of the HTBF campaign impacts the drop rate on Shinryu?

* Higher quality items will drop more frequently on higher difficulties
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