June 2024 Version Update

Okay, and if the moon phase changes the droprate, then the day you do it matters.

Do you have any reason or evidence to believe that is true, or are you just so desperate to be right that you're making things up?

Very good
You know what if means

What reason do i have to believe that its not true? Obviously eyeballed, but seeing as how I bail on LT, the rainbow upgrade rate on 9 is certainly higher than 75%.
I could dig through logs and find out for sure.

Youre the one who has the mixed up data to state 75/25 over hundreds of exploited runs.

You can just make up infinite fantasy scenarios with ifs, but unless there's some reason to believe they're true then what the hell's the point?

If the rainbow chance on chest #9 triples for every LT you've already opened then...

If the chance of mimic in the 8th chest drops in half for every LT you've already opened then...

If the chance of gold chest on #9 multiplies by your level for every thud you've already opened then...

It's pointless to throw out conjectures, is all I'm saying.

Unless I'm mistaken, even if there's a 50% chance of rainbow, 50% chance of gold, you're still better off opening #8 than sticking with your single LT...

33% death
33% 1 LT (same as you had before)
16.67% 2 LT
16.67% 1 LT (same as you had before)

So...same LT overall? I guess if you get into sub-50% chance of rainbow then maybe it's net negative?

My exploit runs were prior to the adjustment so they're worthless in this context. I have a good bit of data from post-patch, but certainly not enough to conclusively show whether the final chest transform would be influenced by prior thuds. There are enough instances of triple loud thud on 7-8-9 that it seems very unlikely to be a direct drop.

But, I still see no reason to assume that would be the case. The game is triggering a logical event when you clear box #8. The assumption is that it uses one degree of random check, anything else would be assumed false unless proven, for the same reason we aren't carrying lucky eggs and crafting facing east.

This. Unless there's compelling evidence to indicate it is true, it makes no sense to assume it is. Nobody is forcing you to risk your loud thuds, the 2 runs you see this year where you get a loud thud on #7 are still your own and you can do whatever you want with them.

I got nothing more until i get home unless someone who logs their stuff can cite their box 9 upgrade rate.

Precisely why I craft facing NW so my *** is facing SE

When you create such specific circumstances, it becomes very difficult to get adequate data. For a single data point, you need to have opened all 9 boxes(one in 7 runs, if you exit on an early thud). For a single data point with a prior loud thud, you need to have opened all 9 boxes and gotten a loud thud late enough to have been comfortable continuing. For most strategies, this is one in 40 runs or so because very few people will continue opening after an early loud thud. Let's say, theoretically, that a loud thud reduces the chance of a rainbow chest as #9 by 10%[ie:75%->65%, not 10% relative]. To get enough data to show beyond margin of error that it's not happening, you would need well in excess of 15,000 runs logged.

If you choose to believe a prior loud thud reduces your chance of a rainbow box on #9, there is nothing anyone here can do to prove otherwise. It would absolutely change the math on whether it's worth opening #8. But, because it's a completely imaginary concept that you created just now to validate your preconceived opinion, there's no reason for anyone else to assume it's true and it's just as difficult to prove.

I have extremely few examples of getting RLT after getting a LT previously in the run so I can't really contribute to that. I've attempted it a couple times but often die, so I only have like 1...maybe 2 runs where I did that. I don't have any recorded runs where I got a LT then the 9th was a gold.

My 9th chest split is almost exactly what Thorny said (75/25). 17 gold, 53 Rainbow

The 9th chest upgrading is a function of finishing the game. Everyone who reaches the 9th chest has the same chance at that reward. There is no correlation to any sounds you had in the pool. It was added to the game as an incentive for players to finish.

When you catch up to that idea, you'll start to realize that it's not the potential LT you'd throw away trying to win a game with favorable odds. Instead, it was all the LT you passed up because you didn't see all the signs telling you to keep going.


Thank you for the evidence. It has been turned over to the STF. Enjoy your ban, Dupener.

I got my data, put it in excel, started looking for what the rate of good loot is, gold/rainbow upgrade rate, and then realized I dumped it all as Mars Orb data instead of splitting Venus and Mars.

I'll do this tomorrow, but the gold/rainbow upgrade rate was something like 66% iirc (10 gold, 22 rainbow).

Treadmill says I burned 162 cals doing this though, so not all is lost for me.

I'm flagging non-usable pulse armor (Annointed Kalarsis) as bad Loud Thud loot.
Whats the consensus on Reisen Helm loot? Good or bad in general? If its one or two good pieces out of 20, I'm just gonna go "bad" when it loads. I'm making an exception to this rule for Tartarus because of how rare it is in general (re: Vagary loot, its bad). The same will apply to Trove loot: there are shitty pieces within that pool, but I'm still marking them all as "good".

Good and bad will always be subjective, but I'd probably include anything that a player would want, whatever the reason. I don't care for the pulse bodies, but some people would want them for lockstyle so I'd include them.

There's so much bad in the pool, I don't think you have to worry about someone trying to accuse you of inflating the good. Things people would disagree upon are well within the margin of error anyway.

How do you play XI in a treadmill?

Controller + near TV?

Walking treadmill, cant run and type commands.

I bike and play console games, but I dont play XI by controller.

Venus:
Gold Upgrade 1
Rainbow Upgrade 8
BB Upgrade 2
Good LT Loot 16
Bad LT Loot 17
LT Lost due to BB Greed 0


Mars:
Gold Upgrade 8
Rainbow Upgrade 19
BB Upgrade 1
Good LT Loot 12
Bad LT Loot 23
LT Lost due to BB Greed 2

BB Upgrade = There was a belligerent bang, and box 9 was the only loud thud. That data can not be used in the Gold/Rainbow upgrade rate.

I wouldn't be so sure. I've had BB up to my 8th chest, opened the 8th and it wasn't a LT, then had the final chest change to gold.

There's absolutely no logical reason to assume anything effects the 9th chest transformation besides a straight random check. It's a scripted event and they have to write a handler specifically for it. Weighting the chances with anything else adds additional work, and there's frankly no reason to do it.

Your own data is showing 27/36 upgrades (75%), like everyone else seems to be seeing. You're just adding arbitrary subdivisions to an already small dataset to try to get the results you want to see.

It still does not matter if loot is good loot or bad loot, because if you only care about loud thud loot then you only care about the number of loud thuds. Anything else is a failure to understand the underlying probability. Let me guess, your next proposition is that loud thuds from chest 9 are worse than other loud thuds? This is just tiring.

If you want to follow whatever superstition floats into your head on your own runs, absolutely nobody is stopping you or complaining about it. But, the default outlook on crackpot theories like this is that they are false until sufficient evidence is shown to indicate otherwise.

I'll continue to believe my unprovable theory that it's as simple as a dice roll every time you click a chest. If you win you get another dice roll for the type of thud (Venus having slightly better odds on each thud roll for a thud or loud thud], if you lose it's a mimic. Maybe belligerent bang adjusts the threshold for these dice rolls or something. 9th chest just being another roll for thud or loud thud that bypasses the mimic roll entirely.

Not a diceroll but "Press your luck", where the boxes are in a constant rotation, but the number of noise/thud/loud/mimic are set

Are suggesting that Mars and Venus Orbs run on the same rates? If so, you're stating that Venus Orbs are useless and you should be spending Silver Vouchers on Mars Orbs.

However, if that is your statement, it cant be anything other than wrong. SE has stated (jump to 4:30:50) that the loot pool and rates within both orbs are identical. So unless they incorrectly made that statement, that means the difference between both orbs is in the rate of N T and LT's.

So yes, that "arbitrary subdivision" of Mars and Venus is kind of important.

Or...and stick with me here...the rate of N/T/LT on the regular chests is the same, but the gold/rainbow proc rate of the 9th chest is the same. Meaning your sub-division is pointless.

The difference in the orbs is that the terminal coffer(not #9) in venus cannot be a noise. Venus existed before the chest#9 transform mechanic.

I feel like we're getting caught up in the nitty-gritty here and ignoring the bigger picture:

There is data out there that suggests that the LT rates differ from Mars and Venus.

Most of this should probably go in the Trove thread. Some of the ideas being put forth here have already been addressed over there...


This was my initial thought as well, but I started to pivot after the adjustment. It makes more sense that the chests are rolled on entry. Better explanation for the initial rainbow chest(s).



Prior to the adjustment, there was no signal that a player was 'done' with the game. I made it to the 10th chest many times back then and if I didn't have HQ noise, I opened the 10th box just to make sure. It was always the mimic.

Post adjustment, the game now has an 'end'. The 9th chest upgrading is that signal and it happens the same way every time the 8th chest is opened successfully.

All that said, this event can and will overwrite a rainbow chest that you had on entry with a gold chest from the 'win' condition being satisfied. I pointed this out a while back in the main Trove thread.


I'm not confident that any difference in LT rate would offset the cost of the orbs. Especially considering that you'd have considerably more runs 'finished' just as a byproduct of running more orbs. The significantly higher chance of LT from those clears probably tip the scales back toward frequency rather than quality.

Opening the 10th box just to find the event that always has a mimic actually always has a mimic:

SE never stated that there's only one mimic. I did because I opened the 10th chest enough times to satisfy that question. I could go dredge up all the pushback I got for saying that in the Trove thread but for now, I think I'll just delight in the irony of the guy who's scared to finish the game acting like it was obvious all along.