New HTBF Shinryu 2.0

I haven't tried this yet since returning because of the complaints about the drop rates, (only really interested in the dagger and maybe the scythe) but aren't the biggest complaints that difficulty barely affects drop rate? At least in Lilith/Odin/Alex you can get decent drops on N-D.

Lilith VD I'd dare say has 50% drop rate, maybe more I can't say.
I'm talking about Lilith without Spitewardens.
I've done a lot of kills thanks to a friend who was basically soloing it with the superbuffed SAM strat.

On VE the droprate is... UNGH.


Shinryu seems to be even worse and with an even smaller difference between VE and VD. But then again it's so easy to get wrong perception on these things because of small samples and personal bias, so who knows?
Wish SE would give us exact drop rates for the two BC so we could compare, I'd love that but of course it's not gonna happen.

Think the real problem is the distribution within each drop slot. Let's say you have a 30% droprate on E, and a 180% droprate on VD(example numbers, I haven't done it enough to be accurate). You're still getting 6x the droprate on VD as E.

However, each drop slot is split somewhere along the lines of(this one is probably pretty close to accurate):
33% Crepuscular Pebble
33% Crepuscular Earring
33% Crepescular Ring
0.2% Crepuscular Knife
0.2% Crepuscular Scythe
0.2% Crepuscular Helm
0.2% Crepuscular Mail
0.2% Crepuscular Cloak

The problem isn't that VD isn't more rewarding, it's that the droprate is just set stupidly low within the distribution and there's nothing you can do to alter the distribution.


Lilith on the other hand, is probably more like:
Malignance Pole 20%
Malignance Sword 20%
Malignance Earring 30%
Daybreak 5%
Malignance Chapeau 5%
Malignance Tabard 5%
Malignance Gloves 5%
Malignance Tights 5%
Malignance Boots 5%

So, whether you're doing a low difficulty or a high difficulty, the droprate is just not distributed as harshly against the rarer items.

I think Thorny nailed the issue.
Altough wouldn't Malignance be closer to ~10% distribution on VD? I think I read some detailed data from Geriond several months ago.

To be completely clear, these are numbers intended to demonstrate the issue, not precise data worth cataloguing as fact. If anyone has more precise data, I would absolutely recommend that over these numbers.

Keep in mind that these are suggested distributions within a given drop slot, and once you have the more common drops you'll see no drop any time that slot rolls. This means it is impossible to distinguish 'slot loaded, but would have given an item I already had' from 'slot didn't load'.

I doubt malignance armor is 10% each(that would be half of all drops being malignance), did you mean 10% total? Or raw 10% droprate, rather than 10% per slot? The amount of context needed is much higher in this case.

Given my ignorance with statistics and math I'm quite likely to use the wrong words, even more so when I'm speaking a foreign language such as english.

I meant that within a given drop slot, one time out of ten (10%) that drop will be one of the Malignance items, 9 other times it will be one of the other items.

Not sure how this alligns with the examples you gave.


It's quite hard to get solid samples for these things though. Each time you would need to delete/mule every single item (or go with someone in pt who has zero drops). Otherwise that would create false data.
I think this is probably why people developed the bias of malignance being rarer than it actually is. I mean, it is undoubtely rare, uhm, not sure if I managed to express what I mean here...

IIRC, my estimated values were 3% for each Malignance armor piece for one drop slot.

However, my values were found by eyeballing. I did about 400 VD runs where at least one person in party didn't have any of the items, so the sample size is uncorrupted and decent-ish in size, but I didn't write down the drops, so take the values with a big grain of salt (if you can find my post, because I didn't after a cursory look).

However, even this lower estimate for the Malignance pieces is somewhere around an order of magnitude higher than Shinryu's (though his drop slot rate is notably higher).

Yeah I looked for your post as well Geriond but I couldn't find it.
So you guys are saying that the chance something will drop, is higher for Shinryu VD than Lilith VD (no wardens).
So I guess this chance is the one they raised with their adjustment.

Then you're saying that the difference in distribution (common drops vs rare drops) within the same slot is much worse for Shinryu than for Lilith.
In other terms: the rare Shinryu items (dagger, cloak etc) seem to be much rare than the 5 malignance pieces seemed to be.


I think this pretty much alligns with the reports we've read so far. I guess Shinryu has shitty distribution and they didn't touch that and they only raise the chance for the drop slot to appear, period.

When the fight was new and it only cost 10 merits to enter, I got the dagger and helm relatively fast. During the August update month when they raised the entry cost to 30, nothing. Absolutely no weapon/gear drops for the entire month. The people around me doing this fight didn't seem to be getting anything during that time either.

Recently, post-September update, I started seeing a lot of non-accessory drops. I almost feel like they broke the drop rate after the entry cost change for the August period. lol

How has the drop rate been for people here lately? I am just curious if it's just me, or if others have had a similar experience recently regarding this fight.

that inventory having all the items is tempting... but what is that, like 500+ fights on VD?

I actually only did maybe 100 or so on VD, and I didn't get any of the five "rare" items from those kills. Most of my drops came from D fights with TH 10~12, depending on my TH'ing luck. I also did a handful on VE, E, and N as well since quite a bit of people were reporting drops from those too.

I was counting how many battles I entered by keeping track of the number of Rem's I tossed. I am asking here because I did over 500 on D during August without any of the rare items, but within the past two weeks or so I started getting all of the sweet stuff all of a sudden. I know, RNGs are random by nature... but it just seemed so strange.

I saw a helm drop on the second VD clear with a group on the first month of release than nothing, I started doing 3 box VD the past couple of months and have seen 3 daggers 2 scythes, and one helm and cloak. The helm being the only thing I have seen this month, but I have gotten enough beitetsu to afterglow 2 mythics throughout all the runs.

I did 2-6 runs daily on D throughout August. No drops. I've stopped because its boring and no interim reward. This BCNM is an insult to player dignity. Its not fricken Omen body drops where at least you are collecting cards...

Same, I was trying to do ~10 runs daily and gave up after not seeing anything for a week, this after getting all accessories pretty quickly then 2 bodies a few runs apart. Really only want some ilvl cloaks but the 30 merit cost is dumb. If it gave triple the rewards of avatars or something that'd be a nice boost but the gear isn't worth the miserable droprates currently.

Yeah, and thorny's example is probably pretty close to what's actually being used in game. The non-accessory drops are all set stupidly low.

Ah, okay. Thank you for the input. So I guess some of you did manage to get drops during August too. I just had a bit of bad luck then, haha.

Good luck to those still trying for drops.

Drop rates THAT low almost make me think there's a 3rd drop slot with better weapon/armor rates unlocked by a blue proc we've just never found.

Probably just SE being SE, though.

Is there any sort of substantial traffic for this HTBF these days w/ the merit cost? Would be great if they knocked it back down or even to 15/25

I think that's most players sentiment... please reduce it, if not back to the original 10, at the bare minimum 25 so you can get 3 runs in a row.

Traffic on Asura is non-existent. I can go on any day and either see 1 person/group there, or literally no one. It's sad to say, but the content is so poor that not even mercs are shouting for it here.

Knocking it back down (except for maybe to 25 for merit point capacity matching) would be a bad idea since you know they'd reduce the drop rate again to match.

I mean.. it's already terrible at 30 merit cost, granted it sounds like some people are having more luck lately so maybe something secretly changed. I haven't tried the fight in a while because I got tired of only being able to do 2 at a time.

The drop rate seems to have been roughly tripled since pre-change, so 2 runs at a time right now is equivalent to 6 runs' worth of drops pre-patch, but faster because of less time spent fighting Shinryu and running between zones.

As horrible as the drop rates are right now, they were even worse before.

That is not necessarily true; particularly if you were doing VD. On VD without TH I was already getting 2 drops almost every run. Since the change, it's about 1/7 for a single-drop VD run. . . which is little change, if any, from before. At any rate, I'm not seeing a change of 3x to the drop rate of that second slot.

I didn't do a lot of runs pre-update on VD, but my group was definitely averaging less than 1 drop per run.

Has anyone actually confirmed a drop on E for armor or weapons?

I got the dagger from farming E on THF. Didn't keep track of my runs, but I'd guess it dropped in the 80-100 range of runs.

I had back to back drops then nothing for the rest of the month, got another Scythe (second time I have gifted this away, gimme a dagger damnit) and the Helm, otherwise it's double pebbles all day everyday pretty much.

Just hit 0/100 on E myself. With the drop rates as they are, I hope to see something drop before I go 0/500 ;;. 1/500 would be good enough if it was dagger or whatnot

Ah good, so there's hope lol