Coronavirus Death Toll Estimation USA

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2010-06-21
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Coronavirus death toll estimation USA
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 Garuda.Chanti
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By Garuda.Chanti 2020-07-23 20:22:53  
Bahamut.Ravael said: »
Terlet Sangria said: »
Viciouss said: »
Great news we can all unite against Anthony Fauci and his terrible first pitch at Nationals Park. Stands are empty dude, there are no excuses.
Man, the left turned on Fauci faster than I thought they would
Well, I think you found the one thing that is more sacred to Vic than his politics.
Well this IS politics and religion....
 Garuda.Chanti
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By Garuda.Chanti 2020-07-23 20:23:55  
Paged!

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 Asura.Kingnobody
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By Asura.Kingnobody 2020-07-24 10:17:08  


So, how's that virus doing, Dr. Fauci? I guess it's another "do what I say, not what I do" type of things?
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By Asura.Eiryl 2020-07-24 11:12:08  
Quote:
In an interview with Fox News, Fauci called the criticism “mischievous” and explained he was sitting with his wife and a friend, and removed his mask to take a drink of water.

You know, his wife, that lady that lives in his house with him.

And the photographer literally waited until he took a drink (see the bottle?) just to bait you with it. Mission accomplished.

Plus, he was tested right before the game.
Quote:
But Dr. Fauci pushed back on the critics Friday on Fox News, saying he was dehydrated and was drinking water. He also noted he tested negative for the coronavirus hours before.
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By Viciouss 2020-07-24 11:20:20  
I watched that whole game up until the rain delay, they showed him a couple of times sitting with his family, all wearing masks. End of July, humidity in the air, it was sweltering in that stadium, they were sitting in the shade but I'm sure they were hot. I would have sat every other seat tbh.
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By Asura.Kingnobody 2020-07-24 11:21:50  
Asura.Eiryl said: »
Quote:
In an interview with Fox News, Fauci called the criticism “mischievous” and explained he was sitting with his wife and a friend, and removed his mask to take a drink of water.

You know, his wife, that lady that lives in his house with him.

And the photographer literally waited until he took a drink (see the bottle?) just to bait you with it. Mission accomplished.

Plus, he was tested right before the game.
Quote:
But Dr. Fauci pushed back on the critics Friday on Fox News, saying he was dehydrated and was drinking water. He also noted he tested negative for the coronavirus hours before.


Yup, both pictures
clearly show him taking drinks of water
.

Keep flailing. It's entertaining.
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 Asura.Kingnobody
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By Asura.Kingnobody 2020-07-24 11:23:14  
Viciouss said: »
I would have sat every other seat tbh.
Still not 6 feet apart.

But hey, it's "do what I say, not as I do" all over again.

Let's see the flailing continue.
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By Asura.Eiryl 2020-07-24 11:24:49  
Part of going to a baseball game is the misery and boredom. It's inauthentic if you're comfy.

You really don't need to distance from someone who you literally sleep next to (I assume).

Not to mention masks are for people that don't know if they're sick. It makes to sense to mask up when you know you're not for a fact. and around no one that can be (test accuracy% w/e)
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By Asura.Kingnobody 2020-07-24 11:31:33  
Asura.Eiryl said: »
You really don't need to distance from someone who you literally sleep next to (I assume).
I never knew Dr. Fauci was bisexual.

Joking aside, explain the gentleman next to Dr. Fauci. I assume he doesn't sleep with him...

Asura.Eiryl said: »
Not to mention masks are for people that don't know if they're sick. It makes to sense to mask up when you know you're not for a fact. and around no one that can be (test accuracy% w/e)
Doesn't matter when it is constantly repeated every day, practically every minute, by that very man that you must wear a mask irregardless of if you show symptoms or not.

Just because you tested negative prior to the game doesn't mean you won't get it during the game. Plus, you don't know how many people he came into contact with before and after the pitch.

There's also that nice little tidbit where, after the pitch, he tried to bump fists with Sean Doolittle. I guess that whole "don't shake hands/etc." line went out the window too, huh?
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By Asura.Eiryl 2020-07-24 11:36:15  
Every single player is tested before the game too.

If everyone is tested (the whole team, fauci, his wife, and his friend) no one in that subset needs to wear a mask. And a fist bump would've been fine. Wash your hands, nbd.
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By Asura.Eiryl 2020-07-24 11:41:13  
It's the exact same argument trump and his staff made for months. "he's tested and so is everyone else he doesn't need to wear a mask"
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By Viciouss 2020-07-24 11:41:21  
Asura.Kingnobody said: »
Viciouss said: »
I would have sat every other seat tbh.
Still not 6 feet apart.

But hey, it's "do what I say, not as I do" all over again.

Let's see the flailing continue.

The only one flailing here is you.
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By Asura.Kingnobody 2020-07-24 11:50:09  
Asura.Eiryl said: »
Every single player is tested before the game too.

If everyone is tested (the whole team, fauci, his wife, and his friend) no one in that subset needs to wear a mask. And a fist bump would've been fine. Wash your hands, nbd.
Except, again, tests don't prove anything 100% of the time. Ever heard of false negatives?

You also brought up a hypothetical, but we don't know if that's true. We also don't know if everyone in that stadium, including support staff, was tested. That's the thing, isn't it? We don't know.

Still doesn't mean he needs to flaunt guidelines he himself enforced on the rest of the nation. It's like if Bill de Blasio shut down city parks and playgrounds and later decided to go down a stroll in one of those parks....oh wait, that happened.

Hypocrisy is a natural thing for some people, isn't it?
 Asura.Eiryl
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By Asura.Eiryl 2020-07-24 11:51:19  
He's not sitting next to "everyone"
 Asura.Kingnobody
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By Asura.Kingnobody 2020-07-24 11:51:51  
Viciouss said: »
Asura.Kingnobody said: »
Viciouss said: »
I would have sat every other seat tbh.
Still not 6 feet apart.

But hey, it's "do what I say, not as I do" all over again.

Let's see the flailing continue.

The only one flailing here is you.
That's your retort?

Well, it's not like you had much of an argument to defend to begin with. How's your rhetoric going btw? Has Texas and/or Florida surpassed New York in cases and deaths from COVID yet, like you hoped?
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By Asura.Kingnobody 2020-07-24 11:53:27  
Asura.Eiryl said: »
He's not sitting next to "everyone"
That's your defense? I mean, all it takes is one infected person coming in contact with another in a closed space and it infects everyone....

But hey, keep flailing. I'm enjoying your struggles.
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By Asura.Eiryl 2020-07-24 11:54:49  
Asura.Kingnobody said: »
Asura.Eiryl said: »
He's not sitting next to "everyone"
contact

But hey, keep flailing. I'm enjoying your struggles.

Do you want to get topic banned again, cause this is how you get topic banned again.
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By Cruz Missive 2020-07-24 11:54:55  
Asura.Kingnobody said: »
like you hoped

No one here is rooting for deaths.

Asura.Kingnobody said: »
Hypocrisy is a natural thing for some people, isn't it?

Gonna save this one for later.

Asura.Eiryl said: »
Do you want to get topic banned again, cause this is how you get topic banned again.

Backseat moderation is also an excellent way to get topicbanned.
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By Viciouss 2020-07-24 11:56:23  
No one needs a "defense." The only thing Fauci did wrong was throw out a lousy, unacceptable first pitch. Thats it. The alt-right attacks on him continue to amuse, the desperation is real. And highly entertaining. Please keep it up.
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By Asura.Eiryl 2020-07-24 11:57:06  
If you aren't going to reign him in, he clearly needs reminders, constantly, apparently. Just food for thought.
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By Viciouss 2020-07-24 11:59:55  
I said a few weeks ago that both Florida and Texas would pass New York in total cases by the end of July, and I was right. Doesn't mean I was rooting for it to happen. Florida is going to pass them today, tomorrow at the latest. Texas will pass them next week. California has already passed them. I never mentioned deaths.
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By Asura.Kingnobody 2020-07-24 12:05:48  
Cruz Missive said: »
Asura.Kingnobody said: »
like you hoped

No one here is rooting for deaths.
Maybe not outright rooting for deaths, but Vic has, on multiple occasions, expressed desire for Texas to outpace New York in cases and deaths for the past few weeks. As an attack on Governor Abbot.

I get that he hates Abbot, but this is the worst way to show disdain.

Cruz Missive said: »
Asura.Kingnobody said: »
Hypocrisy is a natural thing for some people, isn't it?

Gonna save this one for later.
I hope so. I'm a hypocrite just like the rest of us. At least I admit it.

So, please call me out for it.
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By Drama Torama 2020-07-24 12:05:59  
Viciouss said: »
I said a few weeks ago that both Florida and Texas would pass New York in total cases by the end of July, and I was right. Doesn't mean I was rooting for it to happen. Florida is going to pass them today, tomorrow at the latest. Texas will pass them next week. California has already passed them. I never mentioned deaths.

Cases is such a weird metric though, because non-hospitalization cases are largely self-selecting testers. Hospitalizations and deaths are the more interesting numbers because they can't really be fudged (and spare me the tinfoil hattery about MEs listing every death as covid. Most people do not have an overt political agenda, and NO ONE outside of genuine psychopaths is rooting for covid to be worse.)
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 Asura.Kingnobody
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By Asura.Kingnobody 2020-07-24 12:13:09  
Viciouss said: »
I said a few weeks ago that both Florida and Texas would pass New York in total cases by the end of July, and I was right.
New York COVID Cases: 414k, Deaths: 32,270
Florida COVID Cases: 402K, Deaths: 5,652
Texas COVID Cases: 376k, Deaths: 4,723.

Still haven't surpassed the case numbers, and even then, your reasoning is flawed because New York's "spike" occurred when there wasn't much testing going on, vs. Texas/Florida's "spike" occurring after testing ramped up significantly. There's even reports that New York's total cases may be underreported because of it, given that back in late March/early April, a study (unscientific, so take it with a grain of salt) shown that 25% of NYC's residents have had it and shown no signs of it (asymptomatic). So, the number of NY cases is most likely higher than what is reported.

You cannot compare apples to apples with the caseloads between NY and Texas/Florida. But data is all we have currently.
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By Asura.Kingnobody 2020-07-24 12:15:36  
But I guess I owe Vic an apology.

You may not be rooting for more deaths, but it does seem like you are rooting for more cases in Texas.

As Rooks said, it is a better idea to look at hospitalizations and deaths than testing, especially since testing differentiates between times and locations. More so now that the availability of testing is more prevalent in recent weeks than it was back in March/April.
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By Cruz Missive 2020-07-24 12:19:46  
I mean, I don't think anyone is going to top that first phase of NYC:

  • PPE shortages

  • Minimal testing

  • Horrendous leadership at literally every level: city, state, federal, global

  • Population density


It probably could have weathered one or two of those, but all four? No way. We won't see those conditions replicated again (I HOPE) so I doubt anything's going to match the New York numbers.
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 Asura.Eiryl
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By Asura.Eiryl 2020-07-24 12:32:03  
At some point you have to admit that while NY was the worst hit, it has excuses being first.

There are no excuses for CA FL TX going into half a million cases.
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By Terlet Sangria 2020-07-24 12:34:49  
Asura.Eiryl said: »
it has excuses

Eh, kinda. The response from leadership is pretty inexcusable; it's not like we didn't know it was coming.
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 Asura.Kingnobody
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By Asura.Kingnobody 2020-07-24 12:35:39  
Asura.Eiryl said: »
At some point you have to admit that while NY was the worst hit, it has excuses being first.

There are no excuses for CA FL TX going into half a million cases.
I'm sorry, but what?

There is all sorts of evidence that the number of cases could truly be well in the 2-3 million range for NY, if not more. We will not know the true number for a few years, after everything is sorted out and studies are shown to be what the true number is.

Now that testing is much more common, you are much more likely to find a new case today than 2 months ago. That's basic logic.

Partisans only focus on the NY case number and never the context of that number.
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