Coronavirus Death Toll Estimation USA

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2010-06-21
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Coronavirus death toll estimation USA
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 Asura.Eiryl
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By Asura.Eiryl 2020-07-17 00:43:51  
Every Tuesday! $5 + Free popcorn. (when its not the zombie apocalypse)
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By Prong 2020-07-17 00:55:19  
Asura.Eiryl said: »
Every Tuesday! $5 + Free popcorn. (when its not the zombie apocalypse)

Thing I noticed recently that I liked is how they started re-opening/creating more drive-in theaters....and have started tracking box office sales for them.

And as expected, Empire Strikes Back was last weekend's top box office movie. More proof every new Star Wars movie sucks my crank. Well, honestly Rogue One wasn't terrible as a stand alone film, but the rest are basically unwatchable.
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By Asura.Eiryl 2020-07-17 00:59:22  
Emagine just converted a regular theater into a drive in opening today. Was tempted to go. I haven't been to a drive in since... 93ish when Hook came out.
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By Prong 2020-07-17 01:16:00  
Asura.Eiryl said: »
Emagine just converted a regular theater into a drive in opening today. Was tempted to go. I haven't been to a drive in since... 93ish when Hook came out.

Yeah last time I was at a drive in when I was a kid and E.T. came out. Sounds fun actually, if it's nice night.
 Asura.Kingnobody
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By Asura.Kingnobody 2020-07-17 08:18:56  
Asura.Eiryl said: »
Cost of moving. Family safety net. Kids schools. "convenience" groceries/gas/movies. Fear of bears/coyotes/wolves. Snow plowing/salt. Public transportation. Hospital distance. Bars.

All kinds of reasons. Most of it is work, but for the ones who don't work, it's probably the $100,000 price tag of a shack.
If you want all that within a 5 minute walking distance from your $2000/month storage closet apartment, by all means, stay in NYC.

I get all that (except the bears/snow plowing/salt) where I live, and I only spent $450k for my 45 acre property. Which, btw, costs far less than 1 room apartment in NYC or LA, but I have so much more (plus it actually makes me money).

So, keep shitting on rural areas while living in squalor, I'll just keep cashing my checks and living comfortably, thank you very much!
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 Asura.Kingnobody
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By Asura.Kingnobody 2020-07-17 08:20:21  
Disclaimer: The $450k price tag was actually what my father paid, I just took over the upkeep and will inherit along with my sister. He obtained the property in....1980s? I don't remember the exact date.
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By Drama Torama 2020-07-17 08:32:07  
Asura.Eiryl said: »
Public transportation

Legit the only thing I really miss about living in a bigger city.

It'll be interesting to see if remote work takes on more popularity/feasibility after all of this; I've done it for a decade and it's let me live in cheaper places while still getting city salaries. Can't be beat. And, if more companies embrace it going forward, it could change the entire landscape.

Obviously it's not for everyone, even in the industries where it works. Some people really like being in an office, it turns out. But it would only take a small percentage of companies to really go whole hog on it to have noticeable effects.
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By Terlet Sangria 2020-07-17 08:33:51  
Asura.Kingnobody said: »
Disclaimer: The $450k price tag was actually what my father paid, I just took over the upkeep and will inherit along with my sister. He obtained the property in....1980s? I don't remember the exact date.

Well, ***, why doesn't everyone just inherit a half-million dollar piece of property from their parents. What are those other people thinking?

Like, I get where you thought you were going with this, but c'mon, man.
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 Asura.Kingnobody
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By Asura.Kingnobody 2020-07-17 08:36:39  
Drama Torama said: »
Asura.Eiryl said: »
Public transportation

Legit the only thing I really miss about living in a bigger city.
I'm going to be honest for a second.

I lived in Japan for a year, and one of the best things about being there is the public transportation.

After I came back, I tried using public transportation here in the US. The results were....extremely underwhelming.

We just don't have the ability to have good public transportation. Except maybe NYC that is. They kindof built their system out of need, not want.

I don't see how people consider public transportation as a "need" tbh. We don't live in a society that requires it, or even have a good one set up. We can live just fine with the level of public transportation it currently is (in nearly all of the country, it's non-existent).
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By Putin On'the'ritz 2020-07-17 08:41:33  
Asura.Kingnobody said: »
I don't see how people consider public transportation as a "need" tbh.

Public transportation outside of NYC/DC/Boston is pretty bad (Chicago's is Fine, I Guess™). But it's an absolute requirement there; the traffic is hideous even with it, the cities would be completely unlivable without it. Like, Los Angeles is what you get when you build a major American city with godawful public transportation, and getting from one side of the city to the other requires booking a flight if you want it to take less than four days.

It's cheaper, you don't have to worry about parking or traffic, and it doesn't require you to be sober. What's not to love?
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 Asura.Kingnobody
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By Asura.Kingnobody 2020-07-17 08:42:13  
Terlet Sangria said: »
Asura.Kingnobody said: »
Disclaimer: The $450k price tag was actually what my father paid, I just took over the upkeep and will inherit along with my sister. He obtained the property in....1980s? I don't remember the exact date.

Well, ***, why doesn't everyone just inherit a half-million dollar piece of property from their parents. What are those other people thinking?

Like, I get where you thought you were going with this, but c'mon, man.
Point was that it is much cheaper to live in smaller towns/cities than larger ones, and those of us in smaller towns/cities have just as many facilities (both entertainment and health) as larger cities do. And, honestly, its not much different between the two.

Now that we have delivery service for most products, there really isn't a point in living in a large city other than work. And even then, you can commute just fine (I live in an area 20 miles south of a small city 40 miles east of San Antonio, and I can get to SA/Austin and the surrounding areas just fine with no issues, nor does any of my neighbors do either).

I just don't understand why anyone is willing to pay 50% more to live in a large city when it's cheaper and just as convenient to live in a smaller one. Especially since the "benefits" of living in a large city is the same as living in a smaller one.
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 Cerberus.Hideka
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By Cerberus.Hideka 2020-07-17 08:42:38  
Asura.Kingnobody said: »
Drama Torama said: »
Asura.Eiryl said: »
Public transportation

Legit the only thing I really miss about living in a bigger city.
I'm going to be honest for a second.

I lived in Japan for a year, and one of the best things about being there is the public transportation.

After I came back, I tried using public transportation here in the US. The results were....extremely underwhelming.

We just don't have the ability to have good public transportation. Except maybe NYC that is. They kindof built their system out of need, not want.

I don't see how people consider public transportation as a "need" tbh. We don't live in a society that requires it, or even have a good one set up. We can live just fine with the level of public transportation it currently is (in nearly all of the country, it's non-existent).

its a part of our culture honestly. we severely undervalue things for the common good, because we have a supremely individualistic culture. everyone is responsible for themselves and should rely on themselves. its one of the major reasons we've managed to stay on top so long. that kind of competitiveness ensures that we have the best of the best.

japan places a far heavier importance on things that better society as a whole (Schools, public transportation, public access, public support etc).
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 Asura.Kingnobody
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By Asura.Kingnobody 2020-07-17 08:46:50  
Putin On'the'ritz said: »
Asura.Kingnobody said: »
I don't see how people consider public transportation as a "need" tbh.

Public transportation outside of NYC/DC/Boston is pretty bad (Chicago's is Fine, I Guess™). But it's an absolute requirement there; the traffic is hideous even with it, the cities would be completely unlivable without it. Like, Los Angeles is what you get when you build a major American city with godawful public transportation, and getting from one side of the city to the other requires booking a flight if you want it to take less than four days.

It's cheaper, you don't have to worry about parking or traffic, and it doesn't require you to be sober. What's not to love?
I never been to Boston or DC, and I certainly will never step outside the LAX whenever I'm in LA, but I have been to NYC before (hated every minute of it, I'm just glad I made it out alive). So I can't really comment on the public transportation there.

But I have traveled all over the country (honestly, the only state I haven't driven to is California, and for good reason, and if you want to be that guy, Hawaii, but I have flown there), and pretty much everywhere I came across, there was never any need for public transportation. Maybe in New England, but once you get past 50 miles from NYC, you really just don't "need" it to survive.
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By Terlet Sangria 2020-07-17 08:54:00  
Asura.Kingnobody said: »
I never been to Boston or DC, and I certainly will never step outside the LAX whenever I'm in LA, but I have been to NYC before (hated every minute of it, I'm just glad I made it out alive). So I can't really comment on the public transportation there.

Two things:

I listed the three places where it really matters, and your response was that you haven't been to two of the three. But you still can't see the need? I mean, live in an American city for a year. The need will become real, real obvious.

Aside from the hassle, cars are a boondoggle in a city. Expensive to park, expensive to maintain, traffic is a nightmare. If you're not rich, there's better things you can do with your money in a city than deal with a car.

Cerberus.Hideka said: »
its a part of our culture honestly. we severely undervalue things for the common good, because we have a supremely individualistic culture. everyone is responsible for themselves and should rely on themselves. its one of the major reasons we've managed to stay on top so long. that kind of competitiveness ensures that we have the best of the best.

I agree with the premise but not necessarily the conclusion; I think America's dominance for so long has been a combination of massive natural resources and population combined with relative isolation, and a heavy dose of free markets driving innovation. We could invest a bit more in our public goods and not lose our edge, I think.
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 Cerberus.Hideka
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By Cerberus.Hideka 2020-07-17 08:57:23  
Terlet Sangria said: »
Cerberus.Hideka said: »
its a part of our culture honestly. we severely undervalue things for the common good, because we have a supremely individualistic culture. everyone is responsible for themselves and should rely on themselves. its one of the major reasons we've managed to stay on top so long. that kind of competitiveness ensures that we have the best of the best.

I agree with the premise but not necessarily the conclusion; I think America's dominance for so long has been a combination of massive natural resources and population combined with relative isolation, and a heavy dose of free markets driving innovation. We could invest a bit more in our public goods and not lose our edge, I think.


oh, im not saying we couldnt or shouldnt - in fact its why were going to start falling behind other countries. the issue was our culture and we absolutely need to see a culture shift in that regard. our primary education should be revered status throughout the world, but its a *** joke in the first world. teachers should be easily making 2-3x what they make today, and schools funding should be the top priority of every city. we treat primary education as a rubber stamp on someones progress through life, and not the crowning importance of someones childhood.
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 Asura.Kingnobody
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By Asura.Kingnobody 2020-07-17 08:59:47  
Terlet Sangria said: »
If you're not rich, there's better things you can do with your money in a city than deal with a car.
Then I can't make an honest assessment if I lived in a major US city (technically, San Antonio is a major US city, and I have lived there, so.....)

I mean, I'm not discounting your viewpoints. I'm just saying mine are skewed because of my situation.

Terlet Sangria said: »
We could invest a bit more in our public goods and not lose our edge, I think.
Our biggest flaw is actually part of our individuality.

We have a lot of people thinking that they can do everything on their own, and in cases of building our infrastructure, the more ideas we have, the better chance we will have a structure that supports the common good. But with people wanting total control over every aspect of their own little worlds, we will never achieve such unity.

I agree with you on your point, I'm just saying that it's not practical in practice because of our society is structured to reward individual achievement. And because of that, we have people who will try to take on too much on a project that pretty much requires a group to contribute to.
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 Asura.Kingnobody
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By Asura.Kingnobody 2020-07-17 09:01:37  
Also, I think we are getting off tangent for this subject.

/lights the Chanti signal
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By Drama Torama 2020-07-17 09:09:10  
Asura.Kingnobody said: »
Also, I think we are getting off tangent for this subject.

/lights the Chanti signal

True. I'll rope it back into the core topic with this:

Post-covid, there's going to be a sizable demographic shift to suburbs/rural living from anyone who can manage it. The driving reasons to be in a city are work and access to a wider array of activities/dining/entertainment. Some work will go remote, and the entertainment/restaurant sector is going to be suffering the effects of this for a while. All that adds up to anyone who can leave, is going to leave.
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 Asura.Kingnobody
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By Asura.Kingnobody 2020-07-17 09:20:58  
Drama Torama said: »
Post-covid, there's going to be a sizable demographic shift to suburbs/rural living from anyone who can manage it. The driving reasons to be in a city are work and access to a wider array of activities/dining/entertainment. Some work will go remote, and the entertainment/restaurant sector is going to be suffering the effects of this for a while. All that adds up to anyone who can leave, is going to leave.
Pre-COVID, this has already started.

Boerne, a small city northwest of San Antonio, New Braunfels, a small city northeast of San Antonio, Seguin, a small city east of San Antonio, Floresville, a town southeast of San Antonio, and Pearsall, a town southwest of San Antonio, have all seen population growth within the last decade of at least 75% or greater. Those are just the 5 cities/towns with that degree of growth, there are many other small cities/towns who have grown, just at a smaller rate.

Mind you, some of it has to do with SA's growth period, but a lot of the people moving to those cities/towns come from San Antonio. In my area, there has been at least 10 new housing neighborhoods built in the past 2 years.

I think post-COVID, it may increase, but it really depends on how much growth San Antonio has. Especially since the "benefits" of living in a large city is largely dismissed since those same "benefits" are in the smaller cities/towns. You just have more space and more social distancing than you would in a larger setting.
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 Garuda.Chanti
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By Garuda.Chanti 2020-07-17 09:46:13  
Anti-mask protesters' new weapon: wearing masks that offer no COVID-19 protection
Face masks made of mesh, crochet (yarn) or lace are now popular items being offered by online retailers.

WTHR.com

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 Asura.Eiryl
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By Asura.Eiryl 2020-07-17 10:47:42  
If they're going to keep doing ***like that, it will just make the mandates more strict. They ain't slick, only going to make it worse.
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By Asura.Saevel 2020-07-17 11:02:25  
Asura.Kingnobody said: »
Putin On'the'ritz said: »
Asura.Kingnobody said: »
I don't see how people consider public transportation as a "need" tbh.

Public transportation outside of NYC/DC/Boston is pretty bad (Chicago's is Fine, I Guess™). But it's an absolute requirement there; the traffic is hideous even with it, the cities would be completely unlivable without it. Like, Los Angeles is what you get when you build a major American city with godawful public transportation, and getting from one side of the city to the other requires booking a flight if you want it to take less than four days.

It's cheaper, you don't have to worry about parking or traffic, and it doesn't require you to be sober. What's not to love?
I never been to Boston or DC, and I certainly will never step outside the LAX whenever I'm in LA, but I have been to NYC before (hated every minute of it, I'm just glad I made it out alive). So I can't really comment on the public transportation there.

But I have traveled all over the country (honestly, the only state I haven't driven to is California, and for good reason, and if you want to be that guy, Hawaii, but I have flown there), and pretty much everywhere I came across, there was never any need for public transportation. Maybe in New England, but once you get past 50 miles from NYC, you really just don't "need" it to survive.
Drama Torama said: »
Asura.Kingnobody said: »
Also, I think we are getting off tangent for this subject.

/lights the Chanti signal

True. I'll rope it back into the core topic with this:

Post-covid, there's going to be a sizable demographic shift to suburbs/rural living from anyone who can manage it. The driving reasons to be in a city are work and access to a wider array of activities/dining/entertainment. Some work will go remote, and the entertainment/restaurant sector is going to be suffering the effects of this for a while. All that adds up to anyone who can leave, is going to leave.


I can speak to both of these, haha, topic fusion.

I live in the suburbs of DC and they are opening a new metro station about 5 minutes from my home. It's only useful for getting into DC from the suburbs and honesty there isn't much inside DC. Instead there is a ton of stuff around it in Arlington, Annandale, Tysons and so forth. TO get to those places you gotta drive, or what most ppl do is take the metro to the nearest station then uber to your destination. Having been to both NYC and DC along with a bunch of Asian mega cities I can say I prefer the DC area even though it requires more transportation. NYC was dirty, claustrophobic, expensive and full of crazy people.

On the suburb front, this is something I see happening more and more nowadays though it takes a decades worth of planning. The area I'm living in right now was farmland about a decade ago. There are dozens of "suburb" area's all connected such that they act like one city. Everything we need is within 15 minutes of us and everything we could want is within 30 minutes. That second is how long it takes to go from the edge of the DC metro area to upscale area's right outside DC.

https://www.bestplaces.net/cost-of-living/new-york-ny/arlington-va/80000

I see more and more places linking the suburban areas together to form "suburban cities" that have many of the niceties but without the congestion.
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 Carbuncle.Skulloneix
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By Carbuncle.Skulloneix 2020-07-17 11:12:30  
Asura.Saevel said: »
I live in the suburbs of DC
My condolences brother. I left a direct suburb of DC, Alexandria.

Asura.Eiryl said: »
If they're going to keep doing ***like that, it will just make the mandates more strict. They ain't slick, only going to make it worse.
The only problem I see with the Mask stuff now, is people, I won't use the K Word, going around filming people that don't have the mask on, to what? Shame them? Be some savior the internet needs?

When I go to a place and I see someone without a mask, I A: don't get near them, distancing socially and all that, B: STAY FURTHER away since they don't have mask on, if I am even concerned about getting their cooties.

But some people get some sort of hard on to just record people without a mask on and try to make a scene. For what? 5 minutes of Fame? Share on the facebook to your friends for some "Like" button circle jerk??? That crap needs to stop.

Now the people that don't wear masks and record themselves to get attention also needs to stop. That is stupid AF.

Hashtag in before I get called racist.
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 Asura.Kingnobody
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By Asura.Kingnobody 2020-07-17 11:22:03  
Carbuncle.Skulloneix said: »
Hashtag in before I get called racist.
Maskist.
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 Carbuncle.Skulloneix
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By Carbuncle.Skulloneix 2020-07-17 11:32:51  
Asura.Kingnobody said: »
Carbuncle.Skulloneix said: »
Hashtag in before I get called racist.
Maskist.
Say that to my bare face!!!
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 Cerberus.Hideka
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By Cerberus.Hideka 2020-07-17 12:19:18  
Asura.Eiryl said: »
If they're going to keep doing ***like that, it will just make the mandates more strict. They ain't slick, only going to make it worse.


thats literally the problem. there is SIGINFICANT evidence that anything shy of a N95 respirator does DIDDLY *** to prevent the spread of covid.

the entire mask thing is about compliance - not about saftey. they want to make sure they have iron clad control. call me a tinfoil hat all you want, but this is scary ***.
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 Asura.Eiryl
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By Asura.Eiryl 2020-07-17 12:24:23  
That's not true at all.

It's buried in a previous thread, % for each material. none are as good as N95 at preventing breathing IN covid. But everything is at least some level of effective at stopping breathing OUT covid.

So if you breath out 60% less covid with your mask and they breath in 30% less of your 40%.. that's a non-insignificant reduction.

Nothing is 100%, even wearing an N95 you can get infected.
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By Siren.Kyte 2020-07-17 12:25:04  
and there's significant evidence that you're wrong
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By Carbuncle.Skulloneix 2020-07-17 12:27:34  
Asura.Eiryl said: »
Nothing is 100%, even wearing an N95 you can get infected.
Well I'm sold then! We should just be boarded up in our homes and never leave. Problem solved. :D
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 Siren.Kyte
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By Siren.Kyte 2020-07-17 12:31:43  
condoms aren't 100%, why bother
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