Coronavirus Death Toll Estimation USA

Only in your dreams and reality.

You don't have to block all those on the left, several of them can actually discuss stuff. Chanti is a really good example of that, she openly admits she's pretty far left and yet we all still seem to be able to talk and communicate just fine.

Florida is going to surpass NY *** tomorrow lol. (not literally, obviously)

Highly doubt it.

Granted that the numbers will skew towards NY, since the following 2 factors apply:

1) Testing - NY's case load occurred when testing was limited. The recent spikes of cases can be attributed in the increase testing capacities, you get more cases the more times you test. If NY was testing at the level then as the rest of the country is today, the number of cases in NY would be well over a million, instead of the just under 400k it is today.
2) Time - Since NY was the epicenter of the first "wave," many of the residents there have developed immunities. And they also have the largest recoveries in the nation.

Take those 2 into consideration and NY will always be the #1 in cases and in deaths in the nation. Cuomo's response would also show how ineffective he is in handling a crisis....

my dude, did you intend to shoot yourself in the testicle or not?

1. Democratic run state: Check
2. Democratic run moron Mandates Old folks back into oldfoks homes with covid: Check
3. MASSIVE DISPORPORTIONATE MORTATILITY RATE: CHECK.

they've literally had as many deaths as california despite being FOUR TIMES SMALLER.

Heres some data for ya. this is in per Millions. do you see a trend between democrats and forced nursing home orders to death rates?

Location	Confirmed	Deaths	GOV Party	NH Ordered to take Covid patients
New Jersey	19749	1713	D	YES
New York	20493	1631	D	YES
Massachusetts	16598	1234	D	YES
Connecticut	13027	1208	D	YES
Louisiana	13480	712	D	YES
Michigan	7275	629	D	YES
Illinois	11376	559	D	YES
Maryland	11841	551	D	No
Pennsylvania	7275	530	D	YES
Indiana	7297	408	R	YES
Georgia	8403	285	R	NO
Arizona	13497	272	D	NO
Ohio	4692	251	R	NO
Virginia	7872	224	D	NO
Alabama	8352	205	R	NO
Florida	8873	190	R	NO
South Carolina	8485	168	R	NO
California	6586	166	D	YES
North Carolina	7095	145	R	NO
Tennessee	7211	96	R	NO
Texas	6581	93	R	NO

One democrat run state with Forced NH orders didnt have an insanely high death rate.

ONE.

all the D States that DIDNT have NH orders, all had reasonable death rates below 500.

the ONE republican state with forced NH orders, is nearly double the rate of every other republican state.

Do you understand what that means? it means the forced NH policy that nearly EVERY SINGLE D AND R State used, had higher death rates.

while every state that DIDNT have one, save for one outlier in maryland, had extremely low rates comparatively.

you cant say thats just an accident.

You have to count the only thing you can count, tested confirmed infections. We will never know how many actually happened.

There is a myriad of blame to be shared for why testing was incredibly bad in the beginning. Very little of which falls on governors. Most of that blame falls on ya boy capitalism. We don't make ***here, so we don't have anything here. (no reagents, no swabs etc)

It's "not fair" to compare "low testing new york totals" to "high testing florida totals" but thats the reality. Fl is goin "full retard" and "all gas no brakes". 10k a day and climbing hits 400k in 3 weeks.

oh so you're saying you agree with trumps push to bring manufacturing back to the USA then? i seem to remember some time in 2016-18 that he was adamant about bringing back manufacturing from china for everything including medical supplies?

That's literally never not been my stance on it.

It's capitalistic to make things the cheapest possible. You can't do that here. Making things here is Anti-Capitalist.

It's completely counter to it's own idea. We aren't going to pay an American $25 an hour to make swabs when child slaves will for 10 cents per hour.

huzzah! common ground! it exists!

So you're admitting you're a commie ***? Everything that isn't capitalism is communism.

Cause I get called a commie constantly for being honest about how shitty capitalism is and how counter it runs to everything.

(this isn't the thread for it, I'm just curious)

And I'm sure the recent protests had nothing to do with the spike in cases either, right?

But regardless, or irregardless if you want to nitpick, you expect perfection from a product that didn't exist prior to this catastrophe. Mainly, they had to create it from scratch. If you expect the perfect product for every need, no wonder you have so little faith for capitalism. (Protip: your preferred social-economic society of socialism would have a much worse time adapting to fluid situations as this. Socialist countries have death rates greater than NYC, at least those who are honest enough to report it).

There is middle ground to be had, and plenty of blame to share.

spending energy trying to place blame is a masturbatory endeavor.

Hey, like a masturbatory endeavor, some people enjoy it.

nah you're conflating regulated capitalism with laissez-faire capitalism. Communism is horrible, but unchecked capitalism is no better than communism.

but lets get back to those covid stats - the ones that show a direct correlation and probable causation to states who forced nursing homes to take back sick patients.

can we agree that there is nearly iron clad evidence that the decision to expose nursing homes to this risk can be directly died to the motility rates?

Like all things, the idea was correct, the execution was poor.

The premise:
You cannot make a person leave their "home". Abrupt change is devastating. All my ***is here, all my friends are here, and I can't be there now?

That is a very reasonable idea. Nursing home has medical care, the safest place for them to be in theory, was there. The staff was familiar with them, they feel "comfortable" with people they know.

The problem(s):
Humans. Being irresponsible. Lack of knowledge. MONEY. Yes, MONEY. Any elderly person that they were incapable of caring for should have been moved (and were allowed to move!)(even though that's sub optimal) but the home would lose it's funds for that person... so... they didn't follow guidelines.

Who is to blame for this:
Society as a whole, putting all the "old folks" in clusters is literally begging for a pandemic to wipe them out wholesale. Nursing homes trying to make money. Staff for being irresponsible. The governor for trusting humans that we know are irresponsible.

Oh it's this exhausting *** again where you ignore population density just so you can swing and miss at the big bad Democrats. I remember kireek tried this too and it didn't work then..nothing has changed.

do.....

do you not know what a per million measurement is????

its literally the only way to account for population density effectively.

Per square mile is the density, actually.

I think Vic's point is density per square mile.

New York State has a population density per square mile of 421.
Texas has a population density per square mile of 109.9.

We could also break it down between cities too.

NYC has a population density per square mile of 27,000.
Houston's is 3,657.
Dallas is 3,870.
San Antonio is 2,808.5.

Those are major differences there.

Both of your points stand.

i can agree that oldfolks homes shouldnt exist on the whole. im more in support of multigenerational family structure. i feel it imparts very critical and necessary things to children. but thats not an option for everyone - eg people without kids. for them they do need to exist to some degree.

i get that these places were their 'homes', but you cant ignore the fact that its a shared place. E.G. your room mate starts dealing drugs in your home, so you kick them out because its dangerous. not the most fair example, because choice is a factor there - so lets do this: your friend is now johnny torch, and he cant turn off his flame powers, so hes going to burn your house down and kill you on accident. so you kick him out.

same energy.

i think the blame lies mostly on the governors who mandated they be put back; its not like the dislodging was permanent; it was temporary until they either died or got better. the nursing homes not being equiped to deal with this is understandable; we literally haven't seen a plague of this magnitude in nearly a hundred years. i couldnt have expected anyone to be ready to deal with an airborne disease like this.

Mind you, New York state has an infection and death rate that is 10+ times larger than Texas, even though for both the state and individual cities, NYS population density is only ~4 times greater.

So, Texas is still leading the way of response between the two, since they have way less cases and deaths per citizen density than New York State does.

Although some people here are cheerleading Texas's case and death rates and is giddy each day it goes up. I won't say who it is, but I do know for a fact that he likes the Cubs for some odd reason....

NYC being "the capital of the world" plays no small role in it being the primary location for infection.

Which also goes to my point about the large Chinese American population that lives there.

And the influx of Chinese-nationals who visited there that possibly carried the disease too.

Texas is leading the way in terms of how NOT to slow the spread of rona. Our terrible governor finally admitted yesterday that a statewide mask mandate is the last thing he can do before going back into lockdown. But I think even he knows its too late. Bars have already been closed, and they are suing to reopen (you can't make this ***up), but everything else is going to follow, probably before the Republican convention that again, you can't make this ***up, is going forward with their planned in person event inside a convention center in Houston in two weeks. 6,000+ people indoors in a county with 18k cases and counting I mean, how is that a good idea?

Things were actually looking better here at the end of April, now it feels like flattening the curve is going to be impossible.

That's your opinion, show some facts.

And at the end of May too.

The spike didn't occur until the 2nd week of June.

And one little tidbit you fail (or neglect) to mention is the fact that the spikes in cases are occurring in urban areas (aka San Antonio, Austin, Dallas, Houston). Where there were a lot of protests were going.

Rural areas are not getting hit hard at all. There are still 8 counties in Texas who have yet to have a single case of COVID, there are 49 counties who have less than 10 total cases of COVID, and there is 228 counties with less than 1,000 total cases.

That's amazing, actually. For a state that has 254 counties in it.

Source

Also, lets also count deaths.

There are 121 counties in Texas that has yet to report a single death from COVID. There are 218 counties in Texas with less than 10 deaths from COVID, and 248 counties in Texas with less than 100 deaths from COVID.

So, tell us again how the policies enacted from Governor Abbot has failed?

It's pretty straight forward.

Trying to deal with this problem on a state level is ineffective.

"major cities" have vastly different risk vs "BFE"

"opening the entire states bars" and "closing the entire states bars" is really stupid. However, you leave people the ability to drive intercity and interstate and you leave yourself no options.

Beside the fact that they're trying to "appease the masses" and they're more worried about being re-elected than anything. What looks good politically should come a distant second.