Coronavirus Death Toll Estimation USA

250k by the end of the year.

We haven't even hit the peak in most places yet.

There is really no distinction between the two.

You either have it or you don't when you die.

There's no such thing as "dying with the virus, but not because of it"

You have pneumonia, and you coughed while driving lost control and slam into the car in front of you. What killed you? The pneumonia.

Additionally, there will be deaths that happen not because the victim is personally infected, but because the medical system is overwhelmed. Do those count?

I think they do, if it's someone who would have otherwise survived, but I'm fine with excluding them from the reporting numbers.

You can't die from the virus. You can only die indirectly due to something the virus caused to happen.

Viral caused stress induced heart attack is a viral death.
Viral cause immuno-weakness allowing you to catch normal flu is a viral death.
No ventilator for your coma is caused by the vrius taking all the vents. That's still a viral underlying death.
Cough on someone and they shoot you? You don't even have Covid-19 it's STILL a viral death.

Like I said. If you have it and you die. You died from it. Regardless.

Ain't no time for autopsy when you've got a pile of bodies in on a hockey rink.

If 200,000 people die "during this time frame" how many people with the virus do you possibly think will die of unrelated causes.

I think it's totally reasonable to conclude the virus was the cause. Worst case scenario we're talking 1% incorrectly blamed on the virus. We're not talking about 195,000 of them having brain aneurysm.

20,000 deaths will happen in new york alone

I wouldn't put all my eggs in the "SARS-CoV-2 vaccine" basket. This was the state of the world six years after the OG SARS:
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/706717_11

If you were describing the kind of virus that it's hard to make a vaccine for, you would basically describe SARS-CoV-2.

You know not of what you speak.


AMA President Has A Stark Warning About Trump’s Coronavirus Treatment Advice
The president suggested there’s nothing to lose by trying an anti-malarial drug for COVID-19. Doctors say you could lose your life.
HuffPo

We have established that many times over. Trump and Fox are going to continue to peddle this fake "cure" as a desperate distraction. Did you see how he literally cut off Dr. Fauci from answering a question about it? He is just spinning out.

I know you're not from here, but: deploying the military to enforce quarantine in the United States is utterly unimaginable. For one thing, you are wildly underestimating the amount of "You can't tell ME what to do" that is pervasive in this country. Also, the US military is extremely ill-suited to that kind of task. It would not go well, and if anything would result in MORE deaths.

I highly doubt we will have an effective AND widely available vaccine before Thanksgiving.

I'd love to be proven wrong on any of this! But yeah, I'm sticking by 250k. If anything I think it's low. SO MANY people are not taking this seriously until they or someone they know gets it, and all it's going to take is one or two decent sized places spiking at once to completely overwhelm the local medical system.

so i got bored and i put together the per capita numbers on this whole thing, because people are only talking about total numbers, when any idiot on the block can tell you that 1<>1 when talking about things regarding populations. So to see whats up in a clearer view i threw together some information using a current covid case tracking website on Saturday.

i tossed out any country with less than a million people, and less than 1000 confirmed cases. and ranked based off of three categories - Infection, Deaths, Tests. Now my data is a few days old and doesnt account for the USA fluxuation since saturday when i built it out- so theres that small caveat.

-------------------

Heres how USA ITALY SPAIN UK SOKO CHINA and INDIA stack up.

* Ranking is done based on the top 50 countries that have two criteria: Over 1000 Reported cases, and at least 300k in population.

USA

• Reported Infection P.C.: 0.0891%

• INF RANK: 13th

• Reported Deaths P.C.: 0.0024%

• DEATH RANK: 14th

• Reported Tests P.C.: 0.42534%

• TESTING RANK: 23

---------------

ITALY

• Reported Infection P.C.: 0.2061%

• INF RANK: 6th

• Reported Deaths P.C.: 0.0254%

• DEATH RANK: 1st

• Reported Tests P.C.:1.08668%

• TESTING RANK: 10th

---------------

SPAIN

• Reported Infection P.C.: 0.2673%

• INF RANK:3rd

• Reported Deaths P.C.: 0.0254%

• DEATH RANK: 2nd

• Reported Tests P.C.: 0.76082%

• TESTING RANK: 14th

---------------

UK

• Reported Infection P.C.: 0.0631%

• INF RANK:19th

• Reported Deaths P.C.:0.00649%

• DEATH RANK:5TH

• Reported Tests P.C.:0.27572%

• TESTING RANK:25th

--------------

SOKO

• Reported Infection P.C.: 0.0197%

• INF RANK: 30th

• Reported Deaths P.C.:0.00034%

• DEATH RANK: 30th

• Reported Tests P.C.: 0.88407%

• TESTING RANK: 12th

***NOTE: Reports have come out that SOKO's testing methods were only accurate in about 30% of cases, which would increase their rates by about 2-3X if true*** - While soko does present as the country that is handling this infection the best, their testing methods could be causing a misrepresentation.

----------------
INDIA

• Reported Infection P.C.:0.0002%

• INF RANK:50th

• Reported Deaths P.C.: 0.00001%

• DEATH RANK: 25th

• Reported Tests P.C.:0.00871%

• TESTING RANK: 46th

NOTE: INDIA has about the same population size of china, but some of the worst health care, and public health in the world. I highly suspect that they fall so low in the spectrum due to MASSIVE under reporting. i dont have access to data in india to know one way or the other. its kind of a reporting black hole.

---------
CHYNA

• Reported Infection P.C.: 0.0059%

• INF RANK: 37th

• Reported Deaths P.C.:0.00024%

• DEATH RANK: 31st

• Reported Tests P.C.: NOT AVAILABLE

• TESTING RANK: 50TH

NOTE: If you can look at this data, and still think that china did not completely and totally lie to all of us about their numbers, you are a moron and do not deserve your brain. There is no physically possible way, that western countries, who generally have the best health care facilities in the world, with a fraction of the chinese population, have some how outpaced china in every single possible negative category.

To put this into perspective: China is reporting a case load FORTY FIVE TIMES LOWER PER CAPITA THAN SPAIN. for reference, spain has about 46 million people, whereas china has 1.3 BILLION. almost thirty times the population.

China has also been in this outbreak SIGNIFICANTLY longer than every other involved country.


Some more information:

The country with the Higest Case Rate per capita: Luxembourg at 0.43% of its population being reported as infected
The country with the higest deaths per capita: Italy, at 0.02% of its population having been killed by this virus.
the country with the highest testing per capita: iceland, at just over 6% of their population being administered a test.

The country with the lowest case rate per capita: india at 0.0002%
The country with the lowest death rate per capita: India at 0.00001%
The country with the lowest testing rates (with data): Indonesia at 0.00272%

It doesn't entirely work that way. The idiot caused a bullshitvalance.

Our medical system IS grossly under-prepared. because capitalism first and foremost.

2nd is weaponized misinformation

I dont think anyone really other than italy and spain handled this incompetently, and China is the only country that engaged in malfeasance.

Italy and spain are both VERY top heavy elderly populations, and this contagion was specifically being reported as targeting the elderly. They quite literally laughed at the idea of closing their borders, and welcomed everyone in.

China specifically lied, and tried to hide the gravity of this outbreak, and tried to even hide it existence all together by forcing whistleblowers to recant.

so far, despite what the media keeps screeching- the USA is handling this extremely well statistically speaking. the biggest flaw we have, is the lack of available testing. I fully expect USA Death toll to hit 0.03~8% By this infections peak. which yes, will be unfortunately in the 100k~200k range. We have a lot of the same risk factors italy has - a very heavy elderly population, and a very obese/unhealthy/immune suppressed population.

Clinical trials dont go faster based on the amount of people conducting them. This has been stated repeatedly.

This tbh.

What we dont want, is a faulty vaccine, that ironically does cause autism. The very Last thing i never want to hear in life is an anti-vaxxer screeching about how they were right about 5G and vaccines. Taking our time, and making sure the vaccine is done properly, is paramount.

Now that being said: Anyone on their deathbeds, should be provided any test vaccines or test treatments that they want to elect into. I'm a firm believer in a persons ability to make a measured and informed choice when they are on deaths door.