Coronavirus Death Toll Estimation USA

Get used to that view. If anything like that happens, you'll be in line.

Have to agree to disagree here. What I've seen happening the past few years, which IMO is the most dangerous thing of all in our media, is the very LOOSE definition of, "facts." Like the term, "hate speech." Who defines it matters. Some see simply stating facts, actual calculable, statistical facts as, "hate speech" if those facts reflect poorly on one of their marginalized groups.

Almost every article I read from Vox/The Atlantic/Salon/HuffPost/WaPo is more or less an Opinion piece, with a few factual items scattered within to make a person who'd be inclined to believe the author's premise in the first place say, "Ah, see? I knew it." Fox does the same thing, don't get me wrong. Right now, I don't even take the AP or Reuters at face value, the world has become so divided politically, it's diluted what we once thought of as fact.

What I want from a "news" source is Who/What/Where/When/Why/How, minus the opinion of the author. I don't want polls or research studies from biased universities that form a theory then, direct their testing to prove their theory, not to disprove it as they once did.

There are absolutely zero logical reasons one could give that would convince anyone with any amount of objectivity that tens of thousands of people, jamming shoulder to shoulder in the streets for weeks, many not wearing masks (watch the video of the kids dragging the semi-truck driver out of his cab on the highway, like 2 masks out of 200 people), are not most likely the cause in a sudden rise in cases of an airborne pathogen literally right about the exact time that pathogen's gestation period is at it's peak.

Now, if the "riots" started and perhaps only a couple days later the numbers spiked, that's a different story. But these numbers are spiking again literally during the exact time length they should be from the timeline the protests began. Anyone who refuses to acknowledge this, I have nothing further to say to you being that person is so politically biased they are incapable of rational thought.

So, I was talking to my neighbor just now. He works at a plasma donation center.

They've had people come in with antibodies and they test to verify you have them etc. Well, every donor that has come in so far with antibodies ran out.

That's not to say that they are infectable again, but that at the very least the level of antibodies is insufficient to register on the test they do.

There are certainly reasons to be skeptical that the sudden surge is being caused by the riots/protests a few weeks back. The biggest one being the location of the surge as compared to the protests, which were nationwide, chiefly, Minneapolis, MN, NYC, and Washington DC. Where is the current surge taking place? The South/Southwest. Florida, Texas, Arizona, Southern Cali are the biggest hotspots right now, by a huge margin.

Yesterday (June 28), Minnesota added 530 cases, New York added 680. Florida added 8,500 on its own. Texas added 3,600, and has shared date for June 29, 5,300. That is a huge disparity. Florida and Texas are essentially adding a daily case total that it takes Minnesota a week+ to catch up with. Now I understand population density, and total population between Texas and Florida obviously dwarfs Minnesota which has more lakes than people (thats a joke, ok). But if the riots were the source of this latest surge, you would expect to see a lot more cases coming out of where the largest protests were taking place. And we are just not seeing that.

Yes, here am I. Your perception is unparalleled.

What is your estimation of the 2020 Trump Virus death count?

Zero. As for Covid-19, I'm not making an estimation. I am willing to make predictions from bad data, but only if I'm getting paid to do it.

You do realize you just named vacation spots and it's summer. People don't fly their faux outrage flag then head off to sunny Minnesota for a beach trip.

I'm not implying ALL new cases are caused by protesters, but the fact that a small handful of "Reopen" protesters just a week or two prior to the George Floyd incident had all your panties collectively in a wad, screaming, "You morons aren't social distancing!! Covid!!!" and then, when many thousands more did the exact same thing just, in much larger numbers and for a much longer period of time (they didn't stop, they're still out there), you spend your time trying to rationalize how it was somehow not as bad. You're doing it right now. Can't you see how it's your politics that is making you ignore the obvious, not facts?

I'm seriously not trying to be snarky I'm just in awe of how this simple, rational conclusion can just be brushed off by so many because their mind won't let them admit a noble cause doesn't matter to an airborne pathogen and the still-happening protests should be demonized as a pandemic proliferating activity. No amount of social justice is worth risking the lives of possibly millions, just going by what the left claims this will turn into if we continue to ignore social distancing, "suggestions." They've already started the conversation, positive change is happening (in some aspects), tearing down every monument or renaming every building that ever had a white guy's name on it is absolutely irrelevant and changes nothing. They need to go home now.

People I know who got the rona recently think they got it either at the bars or the protests. Social justice protesting is proven to give immunity to the virus, therefore it's all the people packed into bars. Way to go America.

The only reason this can spread at all is people being irresponsible.

You can't be trusted to (do anything) not be selfish.

And I get it, your whole life you've been told you can do whatever the *** you want, whenever the *** you want cause 'Merica. So now we've got 330 million selfish, irresponsible, me first, adult age, children.
And the babysitter, is clueless

And don't blame protesters. If we had reigned the *** cops in when they started to be more problem than they were worth there wouldn't be protests against them right now.

Blame the people who let the cops grow to big for their positions. Could've easily been avoided, with some responsibility.

We just ignore people until they start burnin' ***down. It's not a good look. It's not a good policy.

Blame can go both ways. It's possible for both the cops and the protesters to behave unjustly. Binary thinking is often a sign of not thinking.

So blame the cities/mayors/councils because they could've gotten choke holds banned, increased deescalation training, etc same thing applies to public places and businesses for wearing masks and enforcing the social distancing guidelines

what else were we supposed to do with the shitloads of excess military hardware we built and didn’t really need?!??!

The Black Lives Matter Protests Have Taught Us More About The Coronavirus

Even though hundreds of thousands of protesters and police crowded onto the streets, overall social distancing actually strengthened in big cities with major protests.
Buzzfeed

I'm going to predict a conspiracy theory.

Basis: there has been an uptick in overdose deaths during the pandemic.

Drug use is heaviest in cities, mostly democratic, and rural red states.

On the left the theory is going to be that covid deaths are being added to OD deaths to keep the numbers down. "He died alone, no need to test, has to be an OD."

On the right its going to be stuff like "he died with a needle in his arm and covid in his bloodstream and they called it a covid death!"

Cursory search of the google shows multiple results, right up top is one from health.ucdavis.edu:

Common question
Can COVID-19 be spread by asymptomatic individuals?

asymptomatic transmission may occur and has contributed to a limited amount of transmission of COVID-19 infections. People can shed the virus before they have symptoms, but this is generally less than individuals with symptoms.

While less that individuals with symptoms, it's not zero.



I did take personal responsibility. I never asked for anyone else to do a goddamn thing. I took the uncomfortable as *** test and made other arrangements for delivering her groceries which put YOU personally out exactly 0.00%. I was responding as to why I was concerned about contracting COVID myself due to your statement of the chance of death. It's not about ME, it's about who I could pass it to. Not a hard concept to understand.

Perfect definition of a deflection. "They wouldn't have completely ignored social distancing suggestions if there were not bad cops."

All irrelevant. I just one time, ONE TIME< want one of you pro-protests zealots to be able to admit the obvious: if a handful of "reopen" protesters are a risk of escalating the transfer of Covid-19 by ignoring social distancing suggestions, then tens of thousands of BLM protesters ignoring social distancing suggestions for a much greater length of time is most assuredly a greater risk of spreading Covid-19. That's all. I just want to know there is still some sanity and logic left among the politically left of center.

So your argument is, "Well, NOW we have seen that tens of thousands of people ignoring social distancing suggestions doesn't REALLY increase the spread of Covid-19....and BLM protests showed this. Our bad!!!!!" Really?

So why are states with increasing Covid numbers shutting down again?

idk, eventually it becomes hard to argue with reality.

We're *** and we're *** because the administration is incompetent.

Comparable countries are winning the fight that we're losing and the difference between us is that we elected our worst human in the 2016 election.

At least Brazil got our back when they also elected their worst human. Now we can be corona-buddies quarantined from the developed world together.

That's like, your opinion man. I mean you thought Vox was "accurate and gave fair information". Next your gonna tell us that Trump secretly developed COVID and spreading it around was part of a plan to execute order 66.

It seems for some it IS a hard concept.

/sigh

This is not my argument. Indeed I have no argument. This is reportage on a question that has been asked here.

TX and FL say bars and the memorial day weekend.

when you have people running around who are anti-vaxers can you really only blame Trump for the mess we're in? People have no consideration for their neighbors or community. They will do what they want to try to keep their livelihood as normal as it was. You also have political figures who literally said people can't go outside and protest the situation that we're in because of fear of spreading the corona only to immediately look the other direction and encourage protests for BLM/social justice stuff. This whole thing has been manipulated into a political weapon just to put shade on Trump to try to get him out of office. Instead of focusing on citizens, helping the people in need and working to keep communities safe

as for comparable countries that are winning? Must be nice to have a population the fraction of the US on a landmass smaller than Texas with a different culture and not have 50 micro governments that are all independent. Go them! hopefully they are making a vaccine and can get it out faster than the US so we can start moving back to the old normal

You will never see any leftist admit to being wrong or biased. It's a mental illness.

More proof that Covid was circulating WAY before Jan 2020:

SARS-CoV-2 circulating in Brazil back in November 2019
Medical.net news

this isn't new news ~ the info was circulating in articles since October, we didn't get proper info from china, nor did we care until it was already wide spread. You can also blame chinese new year celebrations for making it more of a global problem

Yep the WHO and Democrats attempted to cover for the Chinese. Work just long enough for the situation to get out of control, then they both gas lighted and tried to blame President Trump.

..lol

We knew it was in the USA and the EU in Dec 2019, but this is the first I have heard about Brazil pre 2020. The methodology is interesting too, should be repeated elsewhere.

Saevel, sometimes you are correct, this is not one of those times.

Kinda wondering how widespread the virus was in December. I do know that they put part of LAX in a quarantine late January (was leaving LA when that happened)