The A.M.A.N. Trove BC

言語: JP EN DE FR
2010-06-21
New Items
users online
フォーラム » FFXI » General » the A.M.A.N. Trove BC
the A.M.A.N. Trove BC
First Page 2 3 ... 43 44 45 ... 67 68 69
 Asura.Reichleiu
Offline
サーバ: Asura
Game: FFXI
user: Reichleiu
Posts: 414
By Asura.Reichleiu 2019-04-02 15:50:42  
Asura.Meliorah said: »
I know a tactic that lets you identify the mimic 100% of the time, you die in the process tho.

Unfortunately, we all know this tactic :/
 Shiva.Spathaian
Offline
サーバ: Shiva
Game: FFXI
user: Spathaian
Posts: 27982
By Shiva.Spathaian 2019-04-02 15:54:15  
Asura.Reichleiu said: »
Shiva.Spathaian said: »
The only change it would make is how much of a chance we have to find the mimic. If it's 100% that the mimic is determined as you enter the BCNM, it simply changes the odds and makes the possibility of seeing the mimic appear more as you open chests. This does nothing other than making you decide whether you'll continue to open chests after a certain point based on statistics.

If it's completely random it's essentially the same, the only difference being that your statistics are always the same, which doesn't change how you open either because of the randomness of it, if the roll is 1-6 like I mentioned then it would just mean that you'll always have at least a ~17% (33% if it's really 5-6) chance of getting a mimic until you get down the to last 2 chests in which case you can assume 50% chance since one of them is 100% a mimic.

There wouldn't be a different way to approach it no matter which way it is, it'll just be how much you want the gamble. Now if we find an actual pattern or queue that lets us know exactly which is the mimic then that's a completely different situation but as of right now that's not the case and I stand by the idea that we'll need far more data before we can get to a point we can make that decision.

There would absolutely be a difference. I'm not sure if you stopped reading, because I did write a lot.. so i'll sum it up.

If the mimic is in a specified chest every time you enter the BC, then you know 9 chests do not contain the mimic. that's why it changes. That is the only variable you would know.. 9 chests are either noise/thud/loud thud. This absolutely should change how you approach it. You're goal is to maximize the chance you have of opening one of those 9 chests. That's why I said in this scenario it's smart to separate them into two halves. Because then the chance of opening a a chest without a mimic in it changes every time you eliminate a chest from each section. .5/5 and .5/5 changes to .5/5 and .5/5-1 after you open the first chest.

Your goal is obviously to open chests without the mimic, so you should maximize the probability that the chest you're opening does not have a mimic in it.

Now, this starts to break down the more chests are eliminated, obviously. But starting with 10 chests, and knowing that 9 don't have a mimic in them.. this would be a better approach.

But like I said, I doubt that's actually how it works.
I read it and understood what you said . What I'm saying is whichever it is, doesn't change how you'd actually approach it because either way each chest you open will be a risk, one just has more of a risk as you open chests than the other. I'm not saying the probability isn't different in the two situations, I'm saying it doesn't change the strategy because it's all going to be down to how much an individual wants to risk which can happen at any level and would be person dependent rather than chest dependent.

Even if you decide to divide the chests into sections, that doesn't change that one of them is death, it just changes how much of a probability you have.

The most it would do is maybe make people willing to take more of a risk, but that's not a change in strategy that's a change in confidence.
 Asura.Reichleiu
Offline
サーバ: Asura
Game: FFXI
user: Reichleiu
Posts: 414
By Asura.Reichleiu 2019-04-02 16:01:43  
Shiva.Spathaian said: »
Asura.Reichleiu said: »
Shiva.Spathaian said: »
The only change it would make is how much of a chance we have to find the mimic. If it's 100% that the mimic is determined as you enter the BCNM, it simply changes the odds and makes the possibility of seeing the mimic appear more as you open chests. This does nothing other than making you decide whether you'll continue to open chests after a certain point based on statistics.

If it's completely random it's essentially the same, the only difference being that your statistics are always the same, which doesn't change how you open either because of the randomness of it, if the roll is 1-6 like I mentioned then it would just mean that you'll always have at least a ~17% (33% if it's really 5-6) chance of getting a mimic until you get down the to last 2 chests in which case you can assume 50% chance since one of them is 100% a mimic.

There wouldn't be a different way to approach it no matter which way it is, it'll just be how much you want the gamble. Now if we find an actual pattern or queue that lets us know exactly which is the mimic then that's a completely different situation but as of right now that's not the case and I stand by the idea that we'll need far more data before we can get to a point we can make that decision.

There would absolutely be a difference. I'm not sure if you stopped reading, because I did write a lot.. so i'll sum it up.

If the mimic is in a specified chest every time you enter the BC, then you know 9 chests do not contain the mimic. that's why it changes. That is the only variable you would know.. 9 chests are either noise/thud/loud thud. This absolutely should change how you approach it. You're goal is to maximize the chance you have of opening one of those 9 chests. That's why I said in this scenario it's smart to separate them into two halves. Because then the chance of opening a a chest without a mimic in it changes every time you eliminate a chest from each section. .5/5 and .5/5 changes to .5/5 and .5/5-1 after you open the first chest.

Your goal is obviously to open chests without the mimic, so you should maximize the probability that the chest you're opening does not have a mimic in it.

Now, this starts to break down the more chests are eliminated, obviously. But starting with 10 chests, and knowing that 9 don't have a mimic in them.. this would be a better approach.

But like I said, I doubt that's actually how it works.
I understood what you said and read it. What I'm saying is whichever it is, doesn't change how you'd actually approach it because either way each chest you open will be a risk, one just has more of a risk as you open chests than the other. I'm not saying the probability isn't different in the two situations, I'm saying it doesn't change the strategy because it's all going to be down to how much an individual wants to risk which can happen at any level and would be person dependent rather than chest dependent.

You and I seems to be arguing about two completely different topics.. you're arguing about whether people are inclined to risk more/less, and i'm saying the strategy for opening boxes should theoretically change based on whether the box is in a determined position or is generated at random when you open a box.

How the strategy would change, and whether or not this means someone would risk opening more boxes – these are completely different subjects.

I agree with you in that I don't think it means people would be willing to open more chests. It does change your strategy / approach for the chests you actually open though. And that was my point.
 Asura.Sechs
Offline
サーバ: Asura
Game: FFXI
user: Akumasama
Posts: 9876
By Asura.Sechs 2019-04-02 16:05:48  
likard said: »
For the people pulling all the nice gear, what is you chest piking strategy? More often than not, I get 6-7 noises and bow out or get a mimic on chest 1-2. What are people doing for their choice of chests that get good loot? I know sh!t should be random, but if someone has pulled 2-3 omen bodies, maybe there is something to their chest picking order.
As far as I can tell the only thing that's making a meaningful difference is having multiple characters:

1) Same account mules (can send stuff on same account characters)
2) Multiple accounts and relative mules (can't send stuff, but can do the BC together and u can lot stuff on the char you want, if it drops)


Think about it. With a single char you get like what, 5 Mars Orbs a day.
With 3 accounts with 1 mule each it's 30+ Mars Orbs each month.
It goes without saying when you have multiple accounts it's also much faster/easier to level additional mules to level 99 to get even more attempts.

Last but not least, you can buy Mars Orbs with gil.



So, yes between someone doing 5 attempts and one having over 30, of course the latter is gonna have a drastically higher chance of seeing something good on that month.
Me? I have 2 chars only (same account) and so far I got nothing but a shitty Zi'tah body and lotsa mats (and lotsa mimes! lol)
 Shiva.Spathaian
Offline
サーバ: Shiva
Game: FFXI
user: Spathaian
Posts: 27982
By Shiva.Spathaian 2019-04-02 16:08:59  
Asura.Reichleiu said: »
You and I seems to be arguing about two completely different topics.. you're arguing about whether people are inclined to risk more/less, and i'm saying the strategy for opening boxes should theoretically change based on whether the box is in a determined position or is generated at random when you open a box.
I guess I'm mostly just confused by how the strategy and the risk are separated in this instance then. As no matter what you have no idea which box is bad and dividing the boxes, or any real "trick" other than knowing exactly which box is bad, or say knowing which half of boxes is bad, can't really change your strategy to improve your chances.

And if you're not talking about strategy as a way to improve your chances I'm even more confused on what the strategy is actually meant to do.

But yea I think overall we're probably misunderstanding each other and I won't push it.
 Odin.Bangla
Offline
サーバ: Odin
Game: FFXI
user: Ceal
Posts: 121
By Odin.Bangla 2019-04-02 16:16:31  
So I've been doing Horlais Peak exclusively and got both Nisroch and Dagon bodies here. I have checked most of the past screenshots in this thread and found some evidence of these bodies all dropping from Horlais Peak.
Is there any proof of them dropping from another BCNM? If so, it seems they are more common in Horlais Peak. I'll definitely switch the zone from now on though.
 Asura.Sechs
Offline
サーバ: Asura
Game: FFXI
user: Akumasama
Posts: 9876
By Asura.Sechs 2019-04-02 16:21:45  
Odin.Bangla said: »
So I've been doing Horlais Peak exclusively and got both Nisroch and Dagon bodies here. I have checked most of the past screenshots in this thread and found some evidence of these bodies all dropping from Horlais Peak.
Is there any proof of them dropping from another BCNM? If so, it seems they are more common in Horlais Peak. I'll definitely switch the zone from now on though.
Ashura Harness reported multiple times from the Palborough Mines BC.
Not sure if it dropped in other places too but I've read 3 reports and 1 LSmate that got it in that BC zone.
 Bismarck.Firedemon
Offline
サーバ: Bismarck
Game: FFXI
user: Firedemon
Posts: 1316
By Bismarck.Firedemon 2019-04-02 16:34:10  
My Dagon, Shamash, and Annointed Kalasiris have come from Waughroon Shrine.
 Asura.Fondue
Offline
サーバ: Asura
Game: FFXI
user: Caliber
Posts: 2445
By Asura.Fondue 2019-04-02 16:34:11  
i got tartarus body from palborough
 Bahamut.Inspectorgadget
Offline
サーバ: Bahamut
Game: FFXI
Posts: 400
By Bahamut.Inspectorgadget 2019-04-02 17:32:26  
My Dagon Body came from Horlais Peak, Shamash from Balgas Dais, Ashera Harness from Waughroon.
Offline
Posts: 42635
By Jetackuu 2019-04-02 17:51:38  
Lemme know if this is actually exclusive to zone and which drops udug :P
 Asura.Lunafreya
Offline
サーバ: Asura
Game: FFXI
user: Lunafreya
Posts: 647
By Asura.Lunafreya 2019-04-02 18:00:52  
Shamash, Waughroon.

Zone don't mean a damn thing, imo.
 Leviathan.Comeatmebro
Offline
サーバ: Leviathan
Game: FFXI
user: Rairin
Posts: 6052
By Leviathan.Comeatmebro 2019-04-02 18:02:15  
It most likely isnt zone exclusive. Got Nisroch in Giddeus. Got nisroch, shamash, ashera, and at least 3 dagons in horlais. Seen tart mail and most zitah drops in both.
[+]
 Shiva.Flowen
Offline
サーバ: Shiva
Game: FFXI
user: Flowen255
Posts: 511
By Shiva.Flowen 2019-04-02 18:20:36  
likard said: »
For the people pulling all the nice gear, what is you chest piking strategy? More often than not, I get 6-7 noises and bow out or get a mimic on chest 1-2. What are people doing for their choice of chests that get good loot? I know sh!t should be random, but if someone has pulled 2-3 omen bodies, maybe there is something to their chest picking order.

I pick at random, loud thud or death. I've tried opening thuds many times and never get anything good (pulse weapons can come from thud btw, if you're after these maybe consider opening). I've had 2 omen bodies and regal gauntlets, all 3 loud thud mars orb. Yes you die alot like this, but when you dont at least you're in for the big chance.
[+]
 Asura.Lunafreya
Offline
サーバ: Asura
Game: FFXI
user: Lunafreya
Posts: 647
By Asura.Lunafreya 2019-04-02 18:25:26  
Shiva.Flowen said: »
likard said: »
For the people pulling all the nice gear, what is you chest piking strategy? More often than not, I get 6-7 noises and bow out or get a mimic on chest 1-2. What are people doing for their choice of chests that get good loot? I know sh!t should be random, but if someone has pulled 2-3 omen bodies, maybe there is something to their chest picking order.

I pick at random, loud thud or death. I've tried opening thuds many times and never get anything good (pulse weapons can come from thud btw, if you're after these maybe consider opening). I've had 2 omen bodies and regal gauntlets, all 3 loud thud mars orb. Yes you die alot like this, but when you dont at least you're in for the big chance.


I agree with the loud thud or bust strategy. It's the best way to get the really good stuff. If you are interested in some lesser random loot, go for thuds. Noises in general get you throw aways.
[+]
 Phoenix.Erics
Offline
サーバ: Phoenix
Game: FFXI
user: prophets
Posts: 569
By Phoenix.Erics 2019-04-02 19:25:37  
my first 5mil bonus was from normal thud 2nd was from loud thud. I got an orpheus's sash from loud thud last month, the cursna ring from a normal thud and the 5ws dmg ring from a gobbie box.(just adding that one in there)

i only open on thud or better unless i get 8 normals without a thud and i dont want to push luck which has happened a couple times now. at that point you could still walk away with a couple mil in junk items worth a couple hundred k each.
Offline
Posts: 18
By Drofrehter84 2019-04-02 19:31:11  
Asura.Sechs said: »
likard said: »
For the people pulling all the nice gear, what is you chest piking strategy? More often than not, I get 6-7 noises and bow out or get a mimic on chest 1-2. What are people doing for their choice of chests that get good loot? I know sh!t should be random, but if someone has pulled 2-3 omen bodies, maybe there is something to their chest picking order.
As far as I can tell the only thing that's making a meaningful difference is having multiple characters:

1) Same account mules (can send stuff on same account characters)
2) Multiple accounts and relative mules (can't send stuff, but can do the BC together and u can lot stuff on the char you want, if it drops)


Think about it. With a single char you get like what, 5 Mars Orbs a day.
With 3 accounts with 1 mule each it's 30+ Mars Orbs each month.
It goes without saying when you have multiple accounts it's also much faster/easier to level additional mules to level 99 to get even more attempts.

Last but not least, you can buy Mars Orbs with gil.



So, yes between someone doing 5 attempts and one having over 30, of course the latter is gonna have a drastically higher chance of seeing something good on that month.
Me? I have 2 chars only (same account) and so far I got nothing but a shitty Zi'tah body and lotsa mats (and lotsa mimes! lol)
Sorry to be such a noob here but how do you go about getting 5 Mars Orbs each day?
Offline
Posts: 635
By tyalangan 2019-04-02 19:48:06  
Drofrehter84 said: »
Asura.Sechs said: »
likard said: »
For the people pulling all the nice gear, what is you chest piking strategy? More often than not, I get 6-7 noises and bow out or get a mimic on chest 1-2. What are people doing for their choice of chests that get good loot? I know sh!t should be random, but if someone has pulled 2-3 omen bodies, maybe there is something to their chest picking order.
As far as I can tell the only thing that's making a meaningful difference is having multiple characters:

1) Same account mules (can send stuff on same account characters)
2) Multiple accounts and relative mules (can't send stuff, but can do the BC together and u can lot stuff on the char you want, if it drops)


Think about it. With a single char you get like what, 5 Mars Orbs a day.
With 3 accounts with 1 mule each it's 30+ Mars Orbs each month.
It goes without saying when you have multiple accounts it's also much faster/easier to level additional mules to level 99 to get even more attempts.

Last but not least, you can buy Mars Orbs with gil.



So, yes between someone doing 5 attempts and one having over 30, of course the latter is gonna have a drastically higher chance of seeing something good on that month.
Me? I have 2 chars only (same account) and so far I got nothing but a shitty Zi'tah body and lotsa mats (and lotsa mimes! lol)
Sorry to be such a noob here but how do you go about getting 5 Mars Orbs each day?

I’m with you on this one. You can get 3(I think) a MONTH on one character. One RoE, two from buying from NPC plus other RoE. If you can get 5 a Day I’ve lost sooooooo much potential. My 100 orb test from Bonanza is nothing if I could have been doing 150 a month from one character alone.
Offline
Posts: 18
By Drofrehter84 2019-04-02 19:53:46  
So do most people just run in and pop the gold chest without opening the auxiliary chests?
 Bismarck.Firedemon
Offline
サーバ: Bismarck
Game: FFXI
user: Firedemon
Posts: 1316
By Bismarck.Firedemon 2019-04-02 20:25:09  
No, but someone did test it and documented it to show it's possible to get an Omen body from chest alone. Most people I'd imagine open until they get a loud thud or a mimic. Myself included.
Offline
Posts: 43
By Blackhalo714 2019-04-02 21:32:59  
I agree going for loud thud even though sometimes it results in crap like today I got a hope crystal lol.
I think think when it Aman first came out I got my first loud thud on a Venus Orb. Was like hell yea! opened the chest and got a sack of fern stones. Now I only do mars orbs.
I think someone reported a while back they can got omen body from a thud. I have yet see this happen in my runs. I have got some pulse weapons and a few 5 million gils, some high selling materials on normal thuds though.

My opinion if your willing to take the risk go for the loud thud.

A bit off topic- but I was surprised this last Uncharted Nyzul campaign I received a Menelaus's Ring from a +1 box. Not sure if anyone else seen other drops from Aman in other events.
By volkom 2019-04-02 22:05:15  
the ???+1/box+2's are basically gobbie special dials. they can drop w/e and they can be forced to only roll certain types of items ~ but i find them to give more znm pops or npc garbage
 Bahamut.Spoilt
Offline
サーバ: Bahamut
Game: FFXI
user: Spoiled
Posts: 16
By Bahamut.Spoilt 2019-04-03 02:43:41  
Venus Orb:


Mars Orb:


**** this: game
[+]
Offline
Posts: 797
By Staleyx 2019-04-03 06:07:27  
Nisroch Jerkin just now. I have been popping 3 characters worth since this came out. First body
Offline
Posts: 37
By jahn 2019-04-03 06:38:25  
Ashera Harness from the free one; just thud.
Noise
Noise
Noise
Noise
Noise
Thud
Open

Ashera Harness
savas jawshan
frayed sack of fecundity
frayed sack of horror +2
light opal
ethereal squama
igneous barnacle
 Asura.Sechs
Offline
サーバ: Asura
Game: FFXI
user: Akumasama
Posts: 9876
By Asura.Sechs 2019-04-03 07:07:32  
I thought Orpheus, Epaminonda etc only dropped from the Venus orb? They can actually drop from Mars as well?
 Lakshmi.Buukki
Offline
サーバ: Lakshmi
Game: FFXI
By Lakshmi.Buukki 2019-04-03 07:39:19  
I've only used Mars and got my ring with that
 Asura.Sechs
Offline
サーバ: Asura
Game: FFXI
user: Akumasama
Posts: 9876
By Asura.Sechs 2019-04-03 07:52:51  
Yeah I just happened to get a belt myself (my first good drop since the release of AMAN! <3) and I was surprised, thought they were exclusively dropping from Venus.
 Odin.Drakenv
Offline
サーバ: Odin
Game: FFXI
user: Drakenv
Posts: 3816
By Odin.Drakenv 2019-04-03 08:32:36  
Asura.Sechs said: »
I thought Orpheus, Epaminonda etc only dropped from the Venus orb? They can actually drop from Mars as well?
That’s not true at all. I’ve gotten all from mars and goblin.
[+]
 Leviathan.Stamos
Offline
サーバ: Leviathan
Game: FFXI
user: Stamos
Posts: 1239
By Leviathan.Stamos 2019-04-03 08:44:30  
Last two loud thuds for me:

Moonbow cloth, and Bewitched Mask.

Cut me deep
[+]
First Page 2 3 ... 43 44 45 ... 67 68 69
Log in to post.