Corona Virus, How Has It Affected Your Area So Far?

20 Pages back or whatever. Judge ruled your rights take a back seat to public health.


https://www.michigan.gov/documents/ag/20200429_Opinion_and_Order_688921_7.pdf

still showing a larger percentage of deaths there bud. Your point is not made and has no point.

29% > 33% eh?

"my point" is of the 800,000 "open" cases many are closed but not "officially closed" They caught up some and closed 30,000 cases. 30,000 people didn't leave the hospital in one day. There are not 800,000 people in the hospital right now, the only way to get an "open" case is to be hospitalized (in quite a few states until recently)

And if they decide to update "open and closed cases" with people who test positive for antibodies you'll see it drop dramatically. More in-line with reality.

The lack of understanding of statistics is astounding.

just backing this up. he is correct; currently our rates do not account for the astronomically high Asymptomatic presentation of the virus. this virus does not present in anywhere from 50-75% of cases preliminary testing is showing. This means that our confirmed cases are potentially three times higher - or even higher than that if further antibody testing shows an even worse no-symptom presentation rate.

If 1m confirmed cases is only 25% of the actual caseload then this means over three million people have had the corona virus- which shrinks our death rate to an astronomically low Rate. 57000/3,000,000 = 0.019. Furthermore the chances of this ACTUALLY being true are even higher, as the only group experiencing significant fatalities and/or symptoms, are the elderly, and people with pre-existing conditions relating to impared lungfunction and immunodeficiency complications.

Ergo/TLDR: Old people are getting presentably sick. Young people are not. people who arent getting sick are logically not going to the hospital. predominantly Young people are also flagrantly disregarding this virus as well. This means even with the preliminary antibody screening, depending on the demographics of where this screening done, it could be anywhere from three to ten times higher for the actual confirmed case rates.

This however does not diminish the impact on the elderly/at risk.

you can and should consider this to be a death sentence if you are an at risk individual, or live with an at risk individual. We maybe have 100m People over 65 in this country if i had to guess? (median age being like 38 in america iirc), with the fatalities we've experienced being about 89% elderly. That roughly translates into potentially a 5% mortality rate across 100m people. aka about 5 million deaths.

The smartest thing we can do in this situation, is focus on building herd immunity. Quarantine the old and at risk. keep them safe. Have everyone else out and about building their immunity to the virus, while avoiding the at risk population. This was actually one of the strategies presented along with social distancing, which we were warned, will not work- it will only slow down the healthcare impacts.

People keep screaming about 'social distancing'. We will N E V E R social distance this virus away. thats irrefutable fact. We only have three vectors for ending this

1. herd immunity - as we've done since the dawn of mankind.
2. Vaccination to facilitate Herd immunity - as we've done since we invented vaccienes.
3. Some miracle cure gets invented - AKA Finding some form of treatment that is outside of the normal meets and bounds of medicine; (like for example, a UV LED Probes into the Lungs or Nebulized Hydrogen peroxide; Both of which, last i checked are being researched as a potential treatment)

Masks for everyone!

The issue is that you're conflating "Case Fatality Rate" with "Infection Fatality Rate." This is the common error many people are making to try to lessen the danger of this disease.

uh.....

1. no i'm not. i specifically deliniate between the two
2. thats not how this works.

Case fatality rate is a irrelevant figure in the grand scheme due to how this virus presents. If it presented in 100% of the cases, it would be a viable figure. it doesnt.

E.G.

its the difference between X% who get visibly sick will Die and X% who catch this will die.

One figure matters - not the other.

Case fatalaty rate in this situation is the numbers fearmongers want to use.

Here's specific numbers to show you why fear mongering using case rates is Stupid:

1. Using Case Rate: 57k Deaths/1,000,000 Sick = 5% Mortality Rate. Which translates into the USA population as 330M*.05 = 16,500,000 DEATHS.
2. Using Infection rate: 57k Deaths / 3,000,000 Infected = 1% Mortality rate, which translates into the USA Population as 330M*.01 = 3,300,000 DEATHS

Using the infection rate based on the at risk population (what im doing): We know it only hurts Elderly and at risk, and that the majority of cases are NOT young healthy people. That population is about 16% of the population (elderly being 65 or older). I dont have clear stats on 'at risk' but lets round up to 20% to be fair- im sure its much lower. That's 66 Million people.

We know right now - the case rate fatality is 5%. we know that the only fatalities were Old or At risk individuals. This means, that translates into about 3,300,000 deaths.

But that's such a crazy high number right?? that's 1% of the population dead in america. Now you have to examine why every other country isn't that high.

Then the answer becomes crystal clear: What were the three methods i mentioned before? Remember - this isn't a disease we can 'wait out'. That's right. herd immunity is taking place - at least to some extent. as more people become resistant, the infection rates plummet commensurately because the virus cant proliferate among asymptomatic hosts nearly as well. Yes, quarantine helped slow down the rates- but its only stretching those deaths out longer. We need the other half of the equation - and thats herd immunity or curative treatment.

TL/DR: Young healthy people need to go get sick, old people/at risks need to stay the *** away from young people. you get to 60% herd immunity, and were done. this is over, and we can be safe again. its that simple.

You don't need to be a fear monger to see reality. People have been comparing the CFR of the flu to the theoretical IFR of covid for months. But whatever, I'm not here to win any arguments. Just take care of yourselves. This disease is serious but we also need to restart the economy somehow or everyone will starve.

No, do not catch this. If you can avoid it, do your best to avoid it. Reinfection it a thing. It might even be worse the second time around. Some studies have shown that a percentage of people who recovered have no antibodies at all, so they do not get immunity. This disease also has permanent effects in some. Even young people who never had symptoms found themselves with reduced lung capacity.

We absolutely should not be promoting this herd immunity nonsense until we have some actual proof that it works.

on this we completely and totally agree; Sorry for my tone before - i just get a little defensive when people try to say the case rate means anything; Case rates are always massively understated. E.G. i cant tell you the last time i went to the doctors for the flu.

Exactly. When you catch the flu and don't go to the doctor, that affects the Infection Fatality Rate, but not the Case Fatality Rate. People are confusing the 2. However, I'm also someone who understands that the economy is not just something for rich people. No economy means food rots in the fields and people don't get their meds. Basically, everyone needs to stop arguing and start working together to fix this issue.

Do you have sources for these three bold (pun intended) claims?

Focus on building herd immunity is not a good idea, as we do not currently know how long immunity lasts for after getting the virus.

Also, talking about its death rate misses the point of its deadliness. Its a pandemic; how many people it itself kills while numbers are being controlled is not the real danger. The danger is its infection rate. Death rates skyrocket the more it spreads, both for cases of covid and other issues, as resources get spread too thin keeping up with the rampant disease. Especially since quarantining this off in a hospital is extremely difficult for most facilities, meaning secondary spread is inevitable in a lot of cases, and anyone in urgent need of care is an at risk patient.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/covid-19-relapse-or-reinfection-1.5546771

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-who-idUSKCN2270FB?taid=5ea40b93e3c40700015ea321&utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-covid-19-some-patients-may-suffer-lasting-lung-damage

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2020/03/23/cameron-van-der-burgh-coronavirus/

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-symptoms-lung-kidney-heart-covid-19-us-doctors-a9466701.html

https://www.livescience.com/covid-19-kids-rare-inflammatory-syndrome.html

There is obviously also information opposing these claims. But all I'm saying is that before we decide that everyone should infect themselves for herd immunity, we need to be 100% sure that this is a good idea.

i suggest you read up on the subject if your unfamiliar

We had another meat factory shut down, this time it had 900 cases in the span of a week, pretty crazy. But not to be outdone, Georgia added 1000 cases in the last 24 hours. So, it seems like even Trump managed to get that one right, it's not time to reopen yet.

Would you have all food production facilities shut down until there’s a vaccine? Serious question.

Here in Brasil the scenario is still steadly worsening.

Not comparing because there is no comparation between europe and latin america, but europe country are seeing the new cases and deaths diminishing. Even considering relaxing lockdown.

But here, despite we following same measures from the start, we are getting worse. Obviously people here arent as compromised with lockdown as europeans but still it would be expected better results.

Im thinking seasons are playing a role in this? Europe is entering the warmer seasons while we are entering colder seasons which favor flu related disease.

This... made me actually lol (it's chinese propaganda, don't *** argue about "this didn't happen" shut up and laugh)

I suggest you do the same, as youre clearly not familiar. Becoming infected with something does not mean you are given lifetime immunity to said thing.

This is not a valid question. The question is not "open/close" for vital system. The question should be what do you change to said system so you dont spread disease rapidly. Most arent setup with this in mind, and the companies dont want to change policy and setup to account for said situation. So most have to shut down. This is why the predatory version of capitalism the US runs is so terrible; we lack backups of vital infrastructure in the name of efficiency.

If youre spreading hundreds of cases by being open, you just cant be open. You clearly dont know what youre doing, or how to prevent the spread, and will be sued into oblivion.

Makes sense. It's gonna hit us again when the colder weather starts.

It's not entirely wrong though. China did inform the W.H.O in January and told everyone to get ready for it. Some nations did, others did not. Take a look at the mortality statistics to see which was which.

Yes, I just didn't want to start a dialogue with people who don't know that it is comedy/propaganda. Everything has some amount of truth in it.

You know people would take it literally and write 5 paragraphs about how this didn't happen like that and they did lie and blah blah blah.

"China lied"

.... So did trump

"nu... nuh uh!"

My question is perfectly valid. You tell me the specific “policies” food production companies should enact to allow their doors to stay open without allowing workers to come into physical contact with each other. Should everyone wear a hazmat suit?

If a meat packing plant has 2,000 employees, a portion will be immune or have no symptoms and a portion will get sick and be unable to work for two weeks. After two weeks the sick portion can return to work and the entire workforce of the facility is now immune and able to continue producing. Someone already posted that some of the largest production facilities account for like 5% of that commodity’s output. You can’t shut them down for long without causing people to starve and you can’t realistically have them all operate in level 5 hazmat gear and follow sterilization procedures like they’re ebola frontline workers.

You’re showing, again, how naive and scared you are. This is why you’re dead broke and live off handouts. Don’t try to invalidate other people’s questions with absolute nonsense.

Yeah, im just gunna block you. You have 2 braincells at best, and all you can do is randomly insult.