The A.M.A.N. Trove BC

Your bravery was rewarded in kind...

I had seven loud thuds in six orbs today (2 Mars 4 Venus, one of which was a recharge freebie). Unfortunately apart from a pulse weapon it was all crappy shards.

Nice. My understanding is this is the most amount of Loud Thuds that I've seen in a screenshot. If there is a possibility for 4, I'm not sure how I would break it down. Maybe?

1.) LT on first 3.
2.) LT on the floor (BB)
3.) Rainbow chest at the end.
4.) Terminal coffee gives LT.

I guess this might be a case for Venus orbs, where the Terminal Coffer is a Thud or Loud Thuds. (Just an educated guess)

4 Loud thuds in a run is certainly possible, happened to me last year - all 4 in a row: 7th, 8th, 9th, and Terminal coffer. Apologies for the bad screenshot not showing the first, also not sure if this was a Mars or Venus, but I'm pretty sure it was Mars since those were the only orbs I used at the time.

Sorry for the necro: I have two mules with 300 vouchers saved up on each. I was thinking of running both of them on different orbs; one mars, one venus, and seeing what the spread is.

Do you think this is something worth doing? Is the sample size big enough? Or am I wasting my time?

Likewise should I aim for ILT or just LT?

Well I think you would need to be careful how you tracked it.

I'd probably just stop at first ITG personally, for maximum data probably try and always open 9 chests, but you'll fail a lot.

I'd probably track it like: orbs used, average chest opened per orb, #thuds, #loud thuds, #ITG, #fails, #successes

300 vouchers would be around 18-19 orbs of each type for each char, not sure if that's a meaningful sample size, assuming you tried to open 9 chests and an even distribution i'd expect you'd probably get the mimic first try ~2, and ~2 full opens. If you stop after first ITG or 2 LT or something you'd have better success but less data.

If we community sourced the data (kinda like how Treasure Hunter was done on the original wiki before guildwork tracked it) probably get better results but, its still messy and would have some selection bias to it.

??

Mars = 6 vouchers
300/6 = 50 Mars Orbs (x 2,500,000G = 125 million gil on Asura market)

Venus = 10 vouchers
300/10 = 30 Venus orbs (x 5,000,000G = 150,000,000 gil on Asura Market)

So 80 orbs total. I don't know what "spread" you're trying to deduce, it would be almost impossible to record it properly and glean much from your data alone due to sample size/fails (i.e. mimic on first or second try gives you next to no meaningful data). Idk what "worth it" means, without knowing what your goal is. Do you want specific items, gil, or to "prove" data? If it's the latter, seems like a waste IMO.

OR! RISK IT ALL BABY UWU

Not sure who you're replying to, but if you're testing probably want a similar sample size of each:
300 = 18x10 + 20x6 or 19x10 + 18.3x6

If someone wants to do linear algebra:
6m + 10v = 300
m - v = 0

Of course need whole numbers and it said "about".

I wouldn't do 50 of one and 30 of the other, those are different sample qualities.

I don't know how you assign gil value to the orbs. (i've made very little money from trove)

I should have been more clear.

For a long time the accepted way to spend vouchers was on mars orbs because the upgrade to venus wasn't worth it in terms of probabilities to get good items/gil items. They have since changed it so that venus now has a higher probability of getting ILTs. My question was, given that I have a set number of vouchers to spend(300), is there value in testing the hypothesis that venus is now better than mars in overall efficiency of vouchers.

I'm asking if my experiment is worth doing, or if I should just throw all in on mars or venus and not do the other one.

Venus is already known to be better (now)

If you want to find out how much better, that's not enough

Mars louds and ITG are like nonexistant now

I beg your finest pardons?

That was my understanding, and what I had been running with for a long time. Maybe I'm wrong, but I did manage to snag like 3 Orphs from it.

Venus previously only affected the middle chest, did it not?

It was changed recently.

See this is why I'm asking if it's worth doing a comparison or not, because there's a LOT of misinformation/wrong information out there, and I was offering up my 600 vouchers to try to put some clarity to that.

I have no clue if it only affected the center chest or not.

It sounds like it wouldn't be a large enough sample size though. I don't know if I should just throw it all into Venus or not.

The test wouldn't be a "similar sample size" anyways if you did it that way, because you can't guarantee a win or what you will pop on those 18-19 runs. You might "win" (ITG/ILT) 5 Mars and lose 13, and win 2 Venus and lose 17. In any case, it's all moot, he doesn't have enough to generate a large sample size with that few vouchers.


I don't, the server does. Maybe not on Fenrir, but on Asura, people run trove 24/7 and shout to buy (mostly) Mars for 2.5m/ea, and Venus for 5m, then sell the drops in town. I've seen less people shout for Venus though, as it's double the price for the same event, and most people don't think the rate of a good pool is twice as high using Venus vs Mars. They take roll volume over roll quantity*

Personally, I prefer to sell the orbs as it's guaranteed money, especially since I have like 4-5 items left from Trove I could reasonably get, the odds are so low it's not worth me running them myself. I can just buy the item from shout if I ever see one and I have the cash.

I'm not selling the orbs. I'm not on Asura and I doubt I could get someone to buy 600 voucher's worth of orbs anyway.

yes I think its small. Supposing 20 orbs of each type with even distribution:
If he should buy lottery tickets he'd open 200 chests (inc. final coffer, 180 w/mimic chance)

If I never want to be on an airplane with him it'd be 20 chests.

Realistically it probably be around 100 of each type (if you tried to open 9, so about 2 wins per type)

Denominator would be "chests opened" Numerator would be counts of mimics/thuds/LT/ITG, with a sample size of 100 (still small) it may be possible to see if there's any meaningful difference in thud quality rate, but if he doesn't want to waste his orbs and stops after opening 5 or 6 or first ITG or 2 LT or whatever, sample size would probably 50-100 chests.

I mean if you're gonna do it anyways that's enough to at least be interesting data, if you want to test mimic location or see if quality of rewards is different based on orb or if those dumb hints are just red herrings or w/e else (zone matter?) probably not enough to do anything. I don't think you can say anything definitive from that sample size but its at least big enough that any data is better than hearsay/conjecture.

If he opens after first ITG and the denominator is smaller on the venus side, that is also interesting data.

Anecdotally I think i've had better luck with Mars orbs (although I usually do venus), didn't realize just selling the orb on Asura was a thing.

Maybe I shouldn't have introduced the selling orbs thing, but in my defense, it was unclear what he meant when he said "is it worth it"? I didn't know if he was saying that from the perspective of best treasure potential, best monetary return, best net outcome, or best scenario for testing, as it was unclear. I assumed he meant worth in terms of what would give him the best return for his vouchers, but was contemplating testing as an experiment. I only brought it up because people are often frightened with decision making, so the alternative is there for making something vs nothing. But fomo etc. Anyways, derailed my b

I assumed he was only asking about "worth testing" (if you care about making money why ask about the test?) if I could just get gil that easily for orbs I'd probably take it.

I confused him with someone else on Asura whose name starts with a T. Thought I'd offer an alternative route but I'm mistaken. Carry on.

So is the consensus then to just do Venus orbs?

Yes

clowns

What did I do?