Ebola Patient Coming To U.S.

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2010-06-21
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Ebola Patient Coming to U.S.
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 Bahamut.Ravael
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By Bahamut.Ravael 2014-10-30 12:03:23  
volkom said: »
If You tossed a coin 3 times. Got heads 3 times. take into consideration the # of outcomes such as getting heads tails heads. or tails tails tails. If you just flipped heads 3 times. its only 13% probability.

Um, yes, the probability of getting heads three times in a row is ~12.5%, but that has nothing to do with the point I made. If I didn't know that the odds of getting a heads to begin with was ~50%, I could falsely assume that because my three outcomes were always heads, the probability of getting heads is 100%.

As for the rest of your post that I'm not quoting because it was long, finding accurate percentages can be rather easy. Finding accurate probabilities for things like the risk of getting ebola is far less cut and dry than simply taking infected cases/population.
 Lakshmi.Flavin
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By Lakshmi.Flavin 2014-10-30 12:30:34  
That nurse in Maine broke her quarintine! She's coming for you Nausi!
 Asura.Kingnobody
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By Asura.Kingnobody 2014-10-30 13:03:06  
Lakshmi.Flavin said: »
That nurse in Maine broke her quarintine! She's coming for you Nausi!
You should leave Nausi alone, he has plenty to worry about, like dinosaurs and dump trucks.
 Ragnarok.Nausi
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By Ragnarok.Nausi 2014-10-30 13:11:49  
Lakshmi.Flavin said: »
That nurse in Maine broke her quarintine! She's coming for you Nausi!

Don't worry I'm packing and my costume this year includes a full body tyvek suit.
By volkom 2014-10-30 13:26:15  
Bahamut.Ravael said: »
volkom said: »
If You tossed a coin 3 times. Got heads 3 times. take into consideration the # of outcomes such as getting heads tails heads. or tails tails tails. If you just flipped heads 3 times. its only 13% probability.

Um, yes, the probability of getting heads three times in a row is ~12.5%, but that has nothing to do with the point I made. If I didn't know that the odds of getting a heads to begin with was ~50%, I could falsely assume that because my three outcomes were always heads, the probability of getting heads is 100%.

As for the rest of your post that I'm not quoting because it was long, finding accurate percentages can be rather easy. Finding accurate probabilities for things like the risk of getting ebola is far less cut and dry than simply taking infected cases/population.

You can't say you don't know the odds of flipping a coin and getting heads 50% nor can you assume based on a low test pool that the probability is heads 100% of the time.
And yes finding the probabilities of getting ebola isn't cut and dry because there's too many variables to take into consideration. However you can make the situation cut and dry by just taking case/population statistics and narrow it down to regions as a general consensus on what a person's chance of being infected is.

If you had 30 people who were in a room and 1 person was infected but he stayed in a corner the entire time during the test scenario and the other 29 people never even came close to him or his bodily fluids what would be the odds of someone catching ebola then? Probably near 0%

How would someone view this scenario from the outside if all they know was that there were 30 people in a room with 1 person with ebola. Probably along the lines of very high.

So for those aid workers who go to ebola infected communities where the population is severely low (in the low thousands), the amount of infected people based on population is high. So just based on the amount of people who are infected, there is a higher chance that someone could get ebola from just a population standpoint (again not taking into account of the numerous scenarios and variables that may occur).

It's pretty hardif not impossible to give 'accurate probabilities' because of the variables because many people don't have the same habits, interactions/scenarios that happen to them. However your chances of getting ebola increase if you go to places that have reported cases of it. Even more so if go to places (like west africa) where there is a ton of reports of ebola infections and/or death.

Anyways just based on the infection rate of the virus compared to others along with the kill potential (if left untreated) you have a much higher chance of dying to something else than you do to ebola.
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By Grumpy Cat 2014-10-30 13:35:27  
What if you flip THREE coins ONE time? WHAT NOW MATH WIZARDS?!!?
By volkom 2014-10-30 13:39:57  
Grumpy Cat said: »
What if you flip THREE coins ONE time? WHAT NOW MATH WIZARDS?!!?
that depends on what kind of coins you flipped.
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 Bahamut.Ravael
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By Bahamut.Ravael 2014-10-30 13:41:02  
volkom said: »
However you can make the situation cut and dry by just taking case/population statistics and narrow it down to regions as a general consensus on what a person's chance of being infected is.

No, you can't. The rest of your post is mostly in line with what I was saying, though. I think you mostly misconstrued my point to begin with, which was that #cases/population is not an accurate way of determining your chances of contracting ebola. If 2 people in a village of 100 have ebola, the chances of you getting ebola if you're one of those 100 people is not 2%. The 2% probability applies to the likelihood where if you chose one of those people at random, there would be a 2% chance that the person chosen would already have ebola.
By volkom 2014-10-30 13:59:11  
Bahamut.Ravael said: »
volkom said: »
However you can make the situation cut and dry by just taking case/population statistics and narrow it down to regions as a general consensus on what a person's chance of being infected is.

No, you can't. The rest of your post is mostly in line with what I was saying, though. I think you mostly misconstrued my point to begin with, which was that #cases/population is not an accurate way of determining your chances of contracting ebola. If 2 people in a village of 100 have ebola, the chances of you getting ebola if you're one of those 100 people is not 2%. The 2% probability applies to the likelihood where if you chose one of those people at random, there would be a 2% chance that the person chosen would already have ebola.

If you were in a village of 100 people (you being one of those 100) and 2 people had ebola. The population of the village that has ebola is 2%. Your CHANCES of getting ebola depend entirely on your interactions within that village. If you just hide in your hut and lived alone eating cans of spam and drinking bottled water your chances of getting ebola near 0% because of your interactions within that society.

If you were a regular interactive town guy your chances will be
0% < X < 99%. X will fluctuate closer to 99 or to 0 based on what you do.
If you're the town poop cleaner and you visited every house every day to clean the poop out of the outhouse then your chances will be higher.

There isn't an exact numbered percentage you can stick onto a person and say "Your chances of getting ebola is ##.##%" Almost all of it if not everything is dependent on what they do and most importantly, where they live. What I'm getting at is that based on cases/population (essentially the location in which you live) determines overall what your chance of getting ebola is just by living there. That percentage chance will go up and go down depending on what you do.
 Bahamut.Ravael
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By Bahamut.Ravael 2014-10-30 14:01:03  
So yeah, we're in agreement then. There's just no concise, mathematical way of assigning a probability to any one person that's both simple and accurate.
 Asura.Kingnobody
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By Asura.Kingnobody 2014-10-30 14:02:02  
volkom said: »
Grumpy Cat said: »
What if you flip THREE coins ONE time? WHAT NOW MATH WIZARDS?!!?
that depends on what kind of coins you flipped.
Or what dice you roll.

 Bahamut.Ravael
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By Bahamut.Ravael 2014-10-30 14:03:29  
ALL HAIL THE FANCY ICOSAHEDRON.
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 Asura.Kingnobody
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By Asura.Kingnobody 2014-10-30 14:06:11  
Today I'm going to....

*rolls die*

....sing in an opera....

Can I get a reroll?

*rolls die*

...............drive to California........

*rolls die*

.............................screw it, I'm joining the Peace Corps.
By volkom 2014-10-30 14:16:24  
if you every play space wolves in warhammer 40k and do a bloodclaw shotgun out of a landraider and you have a wolf priest attached to the squad, imagine rolling like 60 dice at once and hoping for 4+ on all of them
 Bismarck.Magnuss
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By Bismarck.Magnuss 2014-10-30 14:17:39  
Ebola should be a tabletop RPG.
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By volkom 2014-10-30 14:33:18  
Bismarck.Magnuss said: »
Ebola should be a tabletop RPG.


You and the party have cut your way through the densest jungles you've ever encountered. Following a steady stream of glistening blue water you continue on your adventure when you spot a small village off in the distance. You see pillars of smoke touching the sky with a a heavy smell cooked meat tickling your senses. Your party decides to to journey to the village when suddenly a man falls out of a tree and onto your pack mule named Paul. The man's flesh looked battered and bruised. He's bleeding from various orifices. What do you do?
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 Valefor.Sapphire
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By Valefor.Sapphire 2014-10-30 14:37:53  
volkom said: »
Bismarck.Magnuss said: »
Ebola should be a tabletop RPG.


You and the party have cut your way through the densest jungles you've ever encountered. Following a steady stream of glistening blue water you continue on your adventure when you spot a small village off in the distance. You see pillars of smoke touching the sky with a a heavy smell cooked meat tickling your senses. Your party decides to to journey to the village when suddenly a man falls out of a tree and onto your pack mule named Paul. The man's flesh looked battered and bruised. He's bleeding from various orifices. What do you do?
I put on my wizard's hat and cast Firaja
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 Asura.Kingnobody
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By Asura.Kingnobody 2014-10-30 14:43:53  
Valefor.Sapphire said: »
volkom said: »
Bismarck.Magnuss said: »
Ebola should be a tabletop RPG.


You and the party have cut your way through the densest jungles you've ever encountered. Following a steady stream of glistening blue water you continue on your adventure when you spot a small village off in the distance. You see pillars of smoke touching the sky with a a heavy smell cooked meat tickling your senses. Your party decides to to journey to the village when suddenly a man falls out of a tree and onto your pack mule named Paul. The man's flesh looked battered and bruised. He's bleeding from various orifices. What do you do?
I put on my wizard's hat and cast Firaja
*rolls die*

Your spell not only cooks the dying man, but Paul with him. You do 15 damage to Magnuss as a result of the heat wave coming from your spell.
 Valefor.Sehachan
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By Valefor.Sehachan 2014-10-30 14:47:02  
Everyone knows Illuminati put hints of their games into tv and movies!

YouTube Video Placeholder


another proof this was all manufactured by the powers that be!

OR LIKE THOSE ATHEIST LIBERALS SAY "JUST A COINCIDENCE"??!?!?!!
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 Asura.Kingnobody
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By Asura.Kingnobody 2014-10-30 14:51:27  
Valefor.Sehachan said: »
Illuminati
Sorry, but every time I see this word, this pops in my head:

By volkom 2014-10-30 14:54:29  
Valefor.Sapphire said: »
volkom said: »
Bismarck.Magnuss said: »
Ebola should be a tabletop RPG.


You and the party have cut your way through the densest jungles you've ever encountered. Following a steady stream of glistening blue water you continue on your adventure when you spot a small village off in the distance. You see pillars of smoke touching the sky with a a heavy smell cooked meat tickling your senses. Your party decides to to journey to the village when suddenly a man falls out of a tree and onto your pack mule named Paul. The man's flesh looked battered and bruised. He's bleeding from various orifices. What do you do?
I put on my wizard's hat and cast Firaja
The mule and the stranger combust in flames. Paul the mule runs past the party in an grotesque sight. The stranger's burning body falls off with a thud with a small splatter of blood that flung out in all directions. A trail of blood followed him to where he fell. His body burned to ashes with Paul the mule slowly roasting nearby.

Your party remains quiet.
Your spare equipment and items are lost.

The party continues to the village where they meet the head chief. You explained your encounter. The chief looks at you, his face ghostly white. "The Sickness!" He yells, shaking his staff at you and your party. He explains of this terrible disease that has plagued the surrounding area. You and your party stare at each other.

Your panic level rises 2 points.

What do you do.
 Fenrir.Atheryn
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By Fenrir.Atheryn 2014-10-30 15:07:56  
Quote:
US nurse defies Ebola quarantine to go on a bike ride

Kaci Hickox, the self-proclaimed face of resistance to quarantine rules directed at returning US health care workers who treated Ebola patients in Africa, went for a bike ride.

Hickox and her boyfriend, Ted Wilbur, pedalled off on their bicycles on a sunny morning in Fort Kent, Maine. She returned after about an hour.

"I hope that we can continue negotiations and work this out amicably," Hickox told reporters in nationally broadcast comments. "There is no legal action against me, so I'm free to go on a bike ride in my hometown."

Her gesture was aimed at Maine, whose leaders have pledged to enforce a state quarantine.

State officials did not return calls about what their next step will be. Yesterday (NZ time), officials said they would seek a court order to enforce her quarantine.

Hickox has pledged to fight any state action on civil liberties grounds.

"I'm not willing to stand here and let my civil rights be violated when it's not science-based," Hickox told reporters yesterday when she left her home. A state trooper stood by as she talked to reporters, even offering to shake hands with the journalists to prove she did not represent a danger.

Hickox returned from West Africa last week where she was part of a medical team from Doctors Without Borders. She treated Ebola patients in the region where about 5000 people have reportedly died from the virus.

On arrival, Hickox was kept in an isolation tent for three days on orders from New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who acted with the support of New York Governor Andrew Cuomo. The governors jointly deal with the airports and related policies.

The pair imposed tougher requirements on returning health care workers than the guidelines suggested by the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, arguing that the additional measures were needed as a precaution against the spread of the virus despite the scientific consensus that a person who lacks symptoms is not contagious.

Top US medical officials, politicians, including President Barack Obama, and civil libertarians have argued that the virus cannot be spread by anyone who is asymptomatic.

There is a dispute over whether Hickox ever displayed a fever and her Ebola tests have been negative.

On Monday, Hickox was driven to her Fort Kent home, where Maine imposed its own quarantine. Like Christie, Maine Governor Paul LePage cited public health concerns for insisting that Hickox stay isolated and pledged court action if she defied quarantine.

"While we certainly respect the rights of one individual, we must be vigilant in protecting 1.3 million Mainers, as well as anyone who visits our great state," LePage said.

Obama has been vocal in recent days opposing overly restrictive state measures on returning health care workers, arguing the rules will discourage needed medical personnel from volunteering to go to West Africa, the front line in the battle against Ebola.

I say shoot her, and then set her on fire. Not because of Ebola, but because of Stupid.
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 Bahamut.Ravael
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By Bahamut.Ravael 2014-10-30 15:13:46  
You can't cure stupid, but you can set it on fire? Sounds like a bumper sticker to me.
By volkom 2014-10-30 15:16:07  
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 Shiva.Viciousss
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By Shiva.Viciousss 2014-10-30 15:17:21  
Hope she had a nice bike ride. Tomorrow she should catch a movie and just laugh at all the attention that gets.
 Asura.Kingnobody
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By Asura.Kingnobody 2014-10-30 15:18:30  
Bahamut.Ravael said: »
You can't cure stupid, but you can set it on fire? Sounds like a bumper sticker to me.
First image to come up from Google:

 Asura.Kingnobody
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By Asura.Kingnobody 2014-10-30 15:19:36  
Also:

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 Cerberus.Pleebo
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By Cerberus.Pleebo 2014-10-30 15:23:12  
Stupid would be freaking out when the basic fact is you're not contagious if asymptomatic. I dunno why this needs to be repeated every page.
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 Fenrir.Atheryn
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By Fenrir.Atheryn 2014-10-30 15:26:57  
The only one who seems to be freaking out is the nurse.
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By volkom 2014-10-30 15:27:24  
Cerberus.Pleebo said: »
Stupid would be freaking out when the basic fact is you're not contagious if asymptomatic. I dunno why this needs to be repeated every page.
is it 100% fact that the virus only spreads when you have symptoms?
How do they test for people who potentially has the virus?
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