Random Politics & Religion #00

Things appear to be tightening in Maryland, where a poll leaked to The Daily Caller shows the gubernatorial race is “extremely close – only 2 points, 46 to 44, separate Democratic Lieutenant Governor Anthony Brown and Republican small businessman Larry Hogan.”

One should always be cognizant of outliers — and it’s worth noting that this survey was commissioned by the Maryland Republican Party. It’s also true that polls conducted by Gonzales this cycle have tended to show the race tighter than others — but as the Washington Post noted, Gonzales “does not have a partisan track record.”

With those caveats out of the way, let’s assume for a minute this survey is accurate. This would represent a nine point swing from a week ago, when, according to the RealClearPolitics poll average, Hogan was down by eleven points.

How could this be possible? I mean, what has happened in the last week? For one thing, President Obama — not welcome on the trail in red states — campaigned for Brown in Maryland, where crowds began streaming out during his speech, leaving empty bleachers behind.

Could it be that President Obama is such a drag on Democrats that he even hurts them in…Maryland? That’s one possibility. Another factor: New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, the head of the Republican Governor’s Association, has also been stumping hard for him.

Whether or not these events represent causation or correlation, is unclear. But it seems unlikely that Gov. Christie would be visiting Maryland so often — so late — unless there were a reason.

President Barack Obama asked the U.S. Congress on Wednesday to approve $6.18 billion in new emergency funds this fiscal year to combat Ebola where it is raging in West Africa, as well as in the United States.

According to documents provided to Congress, the administration wants lawmakers to provide $4.5 billion in funds for immediate response to the deadly disease and another $1.5 billion in contingency money.

In a letter to House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner, Obama said his top priority is to protect the health and safety of Americans and the request would cover that.

"Over the longer term, my administration recognizes that the best way to prevent additional cases at home will be to contain and eliminate the epidemic at its source in Africa," he said.

The request followed mid-term elections on Tuesday in which Republicans took control of the U.S. Senate from Obama's fellow Democrats and increased their majority in the House.

Concern about the Ebola outbreak played a major part in election campaigning with Republicans portraying the outbreak as one of many areas in which Obama's policies have fallen short.

The Ebola outbreak has resulted in nearly 5,000 deaths in West Africa and nine cases treated in the United States since August, including a Liberian who died on Oct. 8 in Dallas.

The Senate and House Appropriations Committees are assembling a $1 trillion spending package to fund a wide range of federal programs for the rest of the fiscal year ending on Sept. 30. The Ebola request would be folded into that bill, to be debated by Dec. 11, when existing government funds run out.

CONGRESS WILL REVIEW REQUEST

Kevin Smith, a spokesman for Boehner, said congressional appropriators would review Obama's request. "We'll continue to work with our members and the administration to ensure we are doing everything we can to protect the public from a deadly disease," he said.

The White House wants $1.83 billion for the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to prevent, detect and respond to the Ebola epidemic and other diseases and public health emergencies abroad and in the United States.

An additional $1.98 billion would go to the U.S. Agency for International Development for foreign assistance in the Ebola crisis.

And $127 million would go to the State Department to expand its medical support and evacuation capacity and $112 million for the Defense Department, including funding to support efforts to develop technologies relevant to the Ebola crisis.

That would include using antibodies from Ebola survivors and survivors of other infectious diseases to provide immunity to the disease as a stopgap until a vaccine is available.

The administration is also asking for $1.54 billion for a contingency fund, divided between Health and Human Services, USAID and State to ensure resources are available to adapt as the crisis evolves.

An incumbent Democratic state representative in Washington was headed for a decisive re-election victory on Wednesday even though he died last week, results indicate.

Roger Freeman, a first-term representative from Federal Way, a city between Seattle and Tacoma, had 53 percent of the vote, compared to 46.9 percent for his Republican challenger, Jack Dovey.

Freeman, 48, died last week after a battle with cancer. His death came after ballots were mailed to Washington voters, where all voting is done by mail.

"This is extremely rare," said Brian Zylstra, a spokesman for the secretary of state's office. "But there are protocols in place."

Once all ballots are finalized in coming weeks, if Freeman wins the vote, Democrats still will hold on to his seat in the state House of Representatives, Zylstra said.

Democrats in Freeman's district, which spans two counties, will select three names for a temporary replacement and the King and Pierce County councils will vote to appoint one of those candidates to the seat for one year, according to state election rules.

The seat would be on the ballot in 2015 to fill out the remainder of the two-year term, the rules say.

Should the Republican candidate win, he will take the seat in Olympia at the start of the next legislative session.

Well, they gave him nothing to address the immigration crisis, don't expect anything for ebola.

Legislation allowing the construction of the Keystone oil pipeline from Canada to the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, repealing Obamacare and reducing the nation's debt are at the top of Republicans' 2015 agenda, House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner said on Thursday.

In his first news conference since Tuesday's congressional elections that saw broad Republican victories, Boehner also said that if President Barack Obama unilaterally loosens some immigration regulations, he will "poison the well and there will be no chance of immigration reform moving" in the next two years.

Before the end of this year, Obama is expected to use his executive authority to help possibly millions of undocumented residents who have been living in the United States for an extended period, many raising families here. His actions could allow many of them to seek jobs in the United States without fear of deportation.

Obama held off taking such action earlier this year in the hope that Boehner's Republicans would come together on a rewrite of U.S. immigration laws. In June 2013, the Senate passed a bipartisan bill.

But conservative opposition blocked Boehner and Obama has since pledged to go forward to help some of the nearly 12 million undocumented people.

Boehner also said he and Senator Mitch McConnell, who is scheduled to become Senate majority leader in January, will work in tandem to address the nearly $18 trillion U.S. debt. He did not elaborate.

While Boehner and McConnell have talked about breaking Washington's political gridlock, the speaker on Thursday did not shy away from the prospect of sending Obama controversial bills that he likely would veto.

Belgian police and a few hundred protesters, including many dockers, clashed in central Brussels on Thursday after a largely peaceful march against reforms and cost-cutting measures of the new center-right government.

Several cars were overturned or set on fire and assorted projectiles thrown at the lines of police, who responded with pepper spray and water cannon. Police finally cleared the area with a charge late in the afternoon.

A police spokesman declined to say how many people had been detained and how many police and protesters injured.

Around 100,000 Belgians had earlier marched through central Brussels in protest against the new government's savings measures. It was the first in a series of demonstrations and strikes planned over coming weeks.

Prime Minister Charles Michel invited leaders of Belgium's three main union branches to talks with the government, although did not offer any obvious concessions. Discussions began on Thursday afternoon.

Belgium's center-right government, installed only a month ago, has pledged to raise the retirement age and limit scope for early retirement, cancel an inflation-linked wage hike due next year and cut the health and social security budgets.

Unions estimated that around 120,000 workers, from dockers to metalworkers, as well as students, had gathered to protest in the Belgian capital. Police put the number at 100,000.

The unions plan a series of regional strikes every Monday starting Nov. 24, culminating in a national strike on Dec. 15.

In other words, the stunts continue.

President Obama secretly wrote a letter last month to Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei that sought to link cooperation in the fight against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria to a nuclear deal, The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday.

"Mr. Obama stressed to Mr. Khamenei that any cooperation on Islamic State was largely contingent on Iran reaching a comprehensive agreement with global powers on the future of Tehran's nuclear program by a Nov. 24 diplomatic deadline," the Journal reported, citing anonymous U.S. officials briefed on the letter.

White House spokesman Josh Earnest declined to comment on the report Thursday, saying he wasn't in a position to discuss "private correspondence" between the president and other world leaders.

Discussions about the campaign against the Islamic State have taken place "on the sidelines" of the Iran nuclear talks, Earnest said without being more specific.

The U.S.-led air campaign against Islamic State fighters began in August. Iranian-backed Shiite militias and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps began fighting the group on the ground earlier this year. The United States is trying to round up a coalition of nations in an effort to roll back the militants from positions in Iraq and Syria.

Uh, yeah, especially with a hugely favorable Senate map in 2016 for the Dems. Don't expect any of them to be breaking off and supporting the sideshow.

Wait, you are truly serious in thinking that the Dems will take control over the Senate.

Let me ask you this, what is the basis of your findings? Can you provide support using the examples of 114th Congress and their policies made during this time?

Political analysts are pretty clear on the trends. Dems do better in major elections just because of the way demographics work out. In addition, swing voters tend to vote out whatever party is in, and tend to vote against majorities.

That's just the way the numbers work out. I don't put much stock in projections years ahead of time, so much can change in a day, anyway. But Vic is correct about the projected 2016 maps, even if the maps themselves end up being wrong.

Can you quote where I claimed victory?

Constructive post. Thanks for bumping my victory tho, appreciate it.

And yet I am still correct, as usual. Yes, the democrats will continue to support Obama/Reid not having to worry about the 2016 elections. You have nothing to counter this, thats why KN stopped posting. Whats taking you so long?