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Is the future of consoles at risk?
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By Siren.Kalilla 2012-03-18 19:10:46
I read an article on IGN that made me start thinking. The article in I read is below, spoilered because people are focusing too much on IGN and not the actual discussion, is really just about whether or not free-to-play gaming is becoming serious competition in the gaming market. Is the newer generation becoming more involved in free-to-play gaming over consoles? In the past the consoles have dominated the market pushing out arcades, but now that the internet has become what it is today and the newer generation of players are being influenced by something we've never really had to deal with before is there risk for major console companies to fall out because of this new competition?
There are pro's and con's to each side, and would like discussion to be about that and not that this article came from IGN.
Are Consoles Dead?
Pundits are insisting that games consoles are headed for doom. IGN offers an
| opinion on the biggest question in gaming. | by Colin Campbell, March 15, 2012 |
The traditional games business is worth around $25 billion a year, so the obvious answer to the question of whether or not consoles are dead, is a resounding 'what the hell are you talking about?'
Not only, but consoles are freakin' awesome. They are built to play games. Certainly, they are ugly brutes, hideous noisy boxes, but by all that is holy, they make life good. This is why talk of their 'death' is so upsetting.
Nevertheless, talk we must.
It's true that consoles move through existence with every sign of vitality, but there are suggestions of an inner sickness, a sense of impending dilapidation. Sorrow awaits.
Things go from hale and hearty to stone cold and underground in a spectacularly short period of time, most especially in the tech and entertainment businesses.
Ben Cousins' argument from GDC
Between them, the business units at Sony and Microsoft have lost a whacking $10 billion since 2000.
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None of this is good. The things that we are supposed to believe will "replace" consoles aren't as good at playing games, aren't designed for this specific, sacred purpose, aren't as emotionally interesting. The death of consoles, if such is their fate, would be a disaster for 'gaming' as we who game understand the term. There is no circle of life crap going on here. It's all bad.
These notions, and the arguments that follow in this article, will be dominating strategic thinking at Sony and Microsoft, as leaders at these august firms decide how to approach their next generation consoles.
For the people who make the consoles, this play of launching new machines represents the biggest risks on both companies' books. If they get this wrong, it would be catastrophic for them.
Little wonder they are holding back. (There are no plans for either Sony or Microsoft to show a new machine at E3 this year.)
Look at it from their point of view. Between them, the business units at Sony and Microsoft have lost a whacking $10 billion since 2000. The opportunity that greeted both companies at the dawn of the century was ownership of the living room, a place at the center of consumer's entertainment lives. It was a noble investment.
But that opportunity does not look anywhere near as attractive now.
In 2000, the year the world's best-selling console ever was launched, Apple was still 12 months away from launching iPhone's progenitor iPod and thereby changing the history of entertainment. Now it's the most valuable company in the world and the most powerful player in the gaming business. Facebook didn't exist. Free-to-play made zero sense. PC gaming was screwed. The assumptions and the projections Sony and Microsoft were making back then just don't exist anymore.
The confidence of yesteryear.
When Peter Moore bound onto the stage at various E3s in the middle part of the last decade, he was seriously arguing that consoles would be the devices through which we consumed entertainment and communicated with one another. At the time, it seemed plausible.
If he tried that shtick today, he' be dragged away by burly nurses, and semi-gently invited to spend some quiet time in a sparsely furnished room.
It's not just the titanic cost, the gargantuan risk this undertaking represents. Problem is, the opportunity for riches is undoubtedly smaller than it's ever been before. For the first time in many console generations, no-one is seriously predicting that the next generation will be bigger than the last. Not even Jack Tretton.
| Where are the New Consoles? |
So the answer to the question about the death of consoles can be found in how the console manufacturers are behaving. And here's the thing. They don't look too keen, do they? If history is any indicator, we are well past due some new machines.
The console guys are looking at this like the man who, having furtively popped into Burger King on his way back from work, is presented at home with a surprisingly large spaghetti bolognese.
At the beginning of this year, Nanea Reeves was mocked and derided for suggesting that one company in the current console battle might drop out. Look, it's unlikely but it's really not that crazy. Sony is seriously short of dough. Microsoft is just starting to claw back some of its investments in the games business.
There are a lot of great business reasons why either of these companies might find an urgently hot thing to fill their attention. The world has changed.
Will PlayStation 4 look like this?
Sony boss Kaz Hirai loves games, but not enough to bring one of Japan's greatest ever corporations to its knees. Whatever form PlayStation 4 takes, he's got to come up with something genuinely new. A better-graphics box at $400? Not going to work.
Already we hear stories of an next Xbox that doesn't even have a disk drive. What kinda console is that? Well, maybe it's one that reflects a changing reality - that the future is certainly not about going to the mall and buying a $60 game about shooting people. In England, the country's biggest retailer of games is about to go bust. If that's not a bad sign, then what is?
And what of Nintendo, the original high priest of console-dom, keeper of the flame? It is a company that has never looked less likely to stand astride the Chichen Itza of global entertainment. It is a supplicant, in the thrall of the new gods. We are told that 3DS is a successful handheld gaming device, Compared to what Vita? Sure. Compared to iPhone? Bow down Mario. Grovel in the dirt Donkey Kong.
Even Wii U, the one and only "next generation" console that we have seen looks a lot like a certain other Apple product. A handheld screen, by golly. So much for disruptive technology. So much for blue sky thinking.
A box.
Everyone in gaming is getting ready for the next generation consoles to arrive. We are able to write off 20% year-on-year declines in game sales as a mere symptom of late-cycle ennui and lower numbers of big game releases.
But there are other symptoms that are not so easily brushed aside. The stock value of companies like EA and Activision have been steadily dropping for the last few years. You want to blame the economy? Sure, go ahead.
But PC gaming has been exploding. More people spend more time playing games than ever before. Meanwhile, the top five games companies by value have halved in value, and those that have dropped out of the list- traditional games publishers - have been replaced by free-to-play and social companies.
Still blaming the economy?
ngmoco's Ben Cousins pointed all this out at GDC last week. He also showed us a graph comparing the history of the arcade game business to that of the console game business.
The enemy of consoles?
At some point in 1999, consoles overtook arcades, which have since become almost entirely irrelevant both as a business and as a way to consume interactive entertainment. That same year, consoles officially became as good as arcades, graphics-wise, with the launch of Dreamcast.
This year, we have seen the launch of the new iPad, a device which, despite its current whizzery, offers future powers we can only imagine. Offer a man from Mars the chance to reach out and grab an iPad or an Xbox 360. Which will it be?
But consoles are seriously great devices, important, essential. In an interview this week, Epic founder Tim Sweeney, one of the smartest thinkers in this business, described them in the simplest terms, as perfectly formed for the purpose of playing games. They are entirely engineered to output fast-moving graphics. They are connected to handheld controllers which have no other purpose than to control games. Their entire eco-system is about competition, fun, excitement.
Sweeney added that when the next generation does come - in whatever form - it will provide a graphical leap that the iPads of this world will take eight years or so to match. Eight years! That's 2020.
So, if we leave PC gaming aside, consoles will still be the best way to consume games for a span of time encompassing three more Olympic games and two World Cups and maybe even another Diablo game.
People talk about the fact that 500 million people have played Angry Birds compared to 25 million players of Call of Duty. But, really, these numbers are like comparing flying pigs with flying helicopters.
Also, Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo are smart. It isn't beyond the realms of possibility that any of them, possibly all of them, will create something that surprises everyone, even Apple. Perhaps we will see a unified platform, or a cloud system that really works or, hell, who knows.
The fact is that consoles are under sustained attack from alternative devices and platforms like mobile and social and free-to-play. It's like horde mode. The enemy has the numbers. The console has the firepower.
Who can predict the outcome with certainty?
But here's an indisputable idea. Any person of good sense must understand which side to root for.
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By Ramuh.Sagittario 2012-03-18 19:21:07
I stopped reading when IGN offered an opinion.
 Sylph.Kimble
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By Sylph.Kimble 2012-03-18 19:24:23
Why the hell would you post such an horrible article here. Short answer, No. correct answer. No.
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By Siren.Kalilla 2012-03-18 19:26:09
I stopped reading when IGN offered an opinion. I agree, but the one bit of information I found interesting in this was the competition between free to play games vs console.
The rest I found to be a filler of words just to get to the point really except I didn't know Sony and Microsoft have lost 10 billion since 2000.
It's interesting to me that the free to play market is actually hurting consoles at all. They offer options you can pay for to enhance game play, but I didn't think that would really even hurt consoles.
Sylph.Kimble
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By Sylph.Kimble 2012-03-18 19:27:47
It's not. IGN likes to make crap up just like saying that iPhone and iPad are killing consoles.
And yes, companies lose money on consoles. They make the balk of their money on game sales.
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By Siren.Kalilla 2012-03-18 19:36:14
It's not. IGN likes to make crap up just like saying that iPhone and iPad are killing consoles.
And yes, companies lose money on consoles. They make the balk of their money on game sales. I get where you're coming from, but I do think that the more recent free to play games being made available have contributed to lowering sales for console games.
I don't actually think IPad, facebook, or w/e will actually kill consoles. I do think they have lowered sales and have become a competitor in the market and that's all.
Ramuh.Austar
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By Ramuh.Austar 2012-03-18 19:38:37
Until an ipod can play a 60 hour long RPG, consoles will never be dead to me.
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By Sylph.Kimble 2012-03-18 19:39:35
The type of people that play those games, aren't generally going to be the people that go and buy consoles and play consoles games.
I highly doubt anyone is like "Man, I'd like to really play the new Uncharted game, but I guess ill just go play angry birds instead!"
It's not the same at all. People generally don't buy iPads and iPhones as a gaming device. Its just a throw in and I really doubt it deters anyone from getting a console.
Angry birds and ***like that is just something you play when out and bored and have a bit of free time, on a break at work, or waiting for your car to get its oil changed or something. I doubt anyone goes home and is like "Yeah! I can't wait to sit and play angry birds all evening!"
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By Siren.Kalilla 2012-03-18 19:43:02
The type of people that play those games, aren't generally going to be the people that go and buy consoles and play consoles games.
I highly doubt anyone is like "Man, I'd like to really play the new Uncharted game, but I guess ill just go play angry birds instead!"
It's not the same at all. People generally don't buy iPads and iPhones as a gaming device. Its just a throw in and I really doubt it deters anyone from getting a console. Well, do you think that it might sway people to put off a purchase for awhile? Take away any form of free to play gaming and you are limited to consoles only then I see people buying them more frequently.
With a competitor that wasn't taken seriously a few years ago, free to play gaming, now becoming more popular I think that it actually influences people to put off a purchase because of the price of console games today.
Just my opinion, not saying its fact or anything.
Sylph.Kimble
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By Sylph.Kimble 2012-03-18 19:46:31
No, I don't think that at all. Since consoles also double as multimedia devices.
If it does, it is such a small percentage of people, that it would hardly affect consoles at all.
サーバ: Odin
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By Odin.Godofgods 2012-03-18 19:47:23
They actually do have a point. With the progression of technology and the increased self indulgence is headed for a down fall.
Games today are made much more based on graphics and their animations. And a large amount of ppl are are actually looking down on anything that isn't currently 'the best'. (if you want proof of that, just look at some ppl in 11 in regards to equip lol).
As a result, every year or two a new system is out for each company. And the price of systems and their games is insain. I remember getting a game as a kid for a couple of dollars. Now they can average anywhere from 50-100 each. And systems costing 500+ when released! Wtf..?
Its all counter productive for gaming overall. I don't even bother buying new systems anymore, or games for them. And as that trend increases, their profits will drop until they cant make/release anything to make it worth their while.
Not to mention with such focus on graphics and what not, game quality over all has plummeted. They're so quick to try and make a buck that they just don't care much any more. No passion in development.
While gaming my have risen very fast, it can just as quickly fall. And in the mean time, ill continue playing my NES and SNES. ~20 some years, and i still have more fun playing those same games against my brother then most any game thats come out in the last 10 years for any system.
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 Cerberus.Eugene
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By Cerberus.Eugene 2012-03-18 19:52:01
I've read this same type of article at the end of last cycle, beginning of this cycle. Some author thought that the PS3 and 360 would be the last generation because of the way hardware for computers was serving multiple purposes so game developers would just look to PCs to supply their own experience instead.
Video game magazine writers like to speculate, but it really doesn't seem to be the case. There are still consoles, and there will be another generation as prototypes and development have already been confirmed. There are still console exclusives, and additions to games that come from console only market.
Console hardware itself is unique in that it develops new technology. The US government uses PS3 processors to do super computing and I read something a couple months ago about the Kinect camera being able to record images in 3D on its own, while other setups required many multiple cameras.
I've even heard rumors of Sega trying to get back in the console market, and Valve trying to start their own to work with Steam.
The fact that ipad and free to play games are cutting in on the market just means console developers have to find other ways of making revenue. Consoles will be around for at least another decade.
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By Siren.Kalilla 2012-03-18 19:52:16
No, I don't think that at all. Since consoles also double as multimedia devices.
If it does, it is such a small percentage of people, that it would hardly affect consoles at all. Okay, let me say it this way.
I don't think it will take away anyone who is currently a fan of consoles (except them maybe be slightly influenced in delaying a purchase because they have other options to kill time). I'm thinking more twoards the newer generation who are growing up with this new technology that we didn't have to be influenced by before.
I think many kids play these online games over consoles, I can't pull out any information on that but I think the newer generation is heavily influenced by this new competition of free to play games.
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By Lakshmi.Sparthosx 2012-03-18 19:53:31
The fact that ipad and free to play games are cutting in on the market just means console developers have to find other ways of making revenue. Consoles will be around for at least another decade.
More DLC~!
Phoenix.Bomber
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By Phoenix.Bomber 2012-03-18 19:55:54
No, I don't think that at all. Since consoles also double as multimedia devices.
If it does, it is such a small percentage of people, that it would hardly affect consoles at all. "lolconsole go buy a PC noob!" says Hi
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By Lakshmi.Byrth 2012-03-18 19:57:04
No one is ditching their PS3 for an iPad. iPad, Flash, etc. gamers are a totally new breed that were (for the most part) formerly not in the gaming market. If consoles die, it will not be because iPads and other handheld devices killed them.
It will be because creating games for PCs is less complicated and reaches a broader audience than creating games for consoles. Back in the 90s, few homes had computers but many had SNESs. An SNES represented a smaller investment than putting down the money for a (whoo~!) Pentium processor.
Consoles are also gravitating towards really just being computers. Look at the X-Box. It's using pretty standard components in a slightly optimized way to deliver the same experience you'd expect from a proprietary computer-box. The benefits of this are that it is somewhat familiar for programmers. I foresee future consoles moving further in this direction.
The downside of putting a console in direct competition with computers in terms of architecture/components is that it's infeasible for computer producers to meet the last prediction in the article, being 8 years ahead of the game. Moore's Law would predict a 4-fold increase in chip performance. I don't know about you guys, but when I look at the price of video cards released this year and compare them to the price of video-cards released last year, I see a dramatic increase. If they're actually going to put out a console from 8 years in the future, they're going to lose a lot of money doing it (and 1.21 gigawatts).
I would vote that consoles are certainly dying, but it may be a wasting death instead of a quick one. Buying a personal computer with last year's technology isn't much more expensive and is a lot more functional than a console. If you're going to make a game, you can move the most units if you make it for the most ubiquitous platform. Everyone is going to have a PC, fewer and fewer people will have consoles. If it wasn't for the japanese attachment to them, we may have broken up with them long ago. I don't know how long they'll drag our relationship out.
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Cerberus.Eugene
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By Cerberus.Eugene 2012-03-18 19:57:24
No, I don't think that at all. Since consoles also double as multimedia devices.
If it does, it is such a small percentage of people, that it would hardly affect consoles at all. PS3 is still one of the better bluray players on the on the market.
Ramuh.Leylah
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By Ramuh.Leylah 2012-03-18 19:57:28
Mobile apps aren't games. They're just gateway drugs to real games found on consoles and PCs. How can you compare a Final Fantasy VII or a World of Warcraft MMO (in its prime) to Angry Birds and Fruit Ninja? Ridiculous.
Consoles won't die...yet, but they do need to evolve to survive.
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By Sylph.Kimble 2012-03-18 19:59:51
Games and systems cost as much back then as they do now. a Super Nintendo for 300 dollars would be around the same as what we have now due to inflation.
And sorry, I just don't agree with it. Its just different markets that really don't affect each other. All the hype and such that happen when a new console comes out, really shows to me they aren't dying.
Sylph.Kimble
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By Sylph.Kimble 2012-03-18 20:00:59
No, I don't think that at all. Since consoles also double as multimedia devices.
If it does, it is such a small percentage of people, that it would hardly affect consoles at all. "lolconsole go buy a PC noob!" says Hi
I don't even compare a PC to a console since having PC would require you to have the funds to keep upgrading as newer games come out.
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By Odin.Zicdeh 2012-03-18 20:03:52
When IGN offers an opinion, you can do yourself a favor and stop reading.
Phoenix.Bomber
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By Phoenix.Bomber 2012-03-18 20:03:57
No, I don't think that at all. Since consoles also double as multimedia devices.
If it does, it is such a small percentage of people, that it would hardly affect consoles at all. "lolconsole go buy a PC noob!" says Hi
I don't even compare a PC to a console since having PC would require you to have the funds to keep upgrading as newer games come out. Still i foresee more ppl will be playing FF14 for example more on PC than console
Cerberus.Eugene
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By Cerberus.Eugene 2012-03-18 20:05:01
No one is ditching their PS3 for an iPad. iPad, Flash, etc. gamers are a totally new breed that were (for the most part) formerly not in the gaming market. If consoles die, it will not be because iPads and other handheld devices killed them.
It will be because creating games for PCs is less complicated and reaches a broader audience than creating games for consoles. Back in the 90s, few homes had computers but many had SNESs. An SNES represented a smaller investment than putting down the money for a (whoo~!) Pentium processor.
Consoles are also gravitating towards really just being computers. Look at the X-Box. It's using pretty standard components in a slightly optimized way to deliver the same experience you'd expect from a proprietary computer-box. The benefits of this are that it is somewhat familiar for programmers. I foresee future consoles moving further in this direction.
The downside of putting a console in direct competition with computers in terms of architecture/components is that it's infeasible for computer producers to meet the last prediction in the article, being 8 years ahead of the game. Moore's Law would predict a 4-fold increase in chip performance. I don't know about you guys, but when I look at the price of video cards released this year and compare them to the price of video-cards released last year, I see a dramatic increase. If they're actually going to put out a console from 8 years in the future, they're going to lose a lot of money doing it (and 1.21 gigawatts).
I would vote that consoles are certainly dying, but it may be a wasting death instead of a quick one. Buying a personal computer with last year's technology isn't much more expensive and is a lot more functional than a console. If you're going to make a game, you can move the most units if you make it for the most ubiquitous platform. Everyone is going to have a PC, fewer and fewer people will have consoles. If it wasn't for the japanese attachment to them, we may have broken up with them long ago. I don't know how long they'll drag our relationship out.
Computers outperform consoles hands down. If we were going to see pcs take over the video game market we would have seen it already.
Consoles provide two things computers generally don't.
1) An integrated online community (PSN, Live, and rumors are steam is developing a console of their own.)
2) A standard that game designers have to adhere to. There is no standard computer, but if you buy a ps3 you'll know all ps3 games work on it without having to replace all your old components.
Console manufactures set standards. They set how people will communicate, how games will be designed. How content will be introduced and distributed. It allows everyone to get on the same page, which is difficult to do with diverse hardware components, operating systems, programs, and services.
Sylph.Kimble
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By Sylph.Kimble 2012-03-18 20:06:34
No, I don't think that at all. Since consoles also double as multimedia devices.
If it does, it is such a small percentage of people, that it would hardly affect consoles at all. "lolconsole go buy a PC noob!" says Hi
I don't even compare a PC to a console since having PC would require you to have the funds to keep upgrading as newer games come out. Still i foresee more ppl will be playing FF14 for example more on PC than console
1) I doubt XIV is going to really recover well to matter.
2) Most MMO games are generally on PC than on consoles so using that as an example doesn't really do anything to support the idea that console gaming is dead.
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By Siren.Kalilla 2012-03-18 20:07:48
Wanted to find out how much consoles cost over the years, not sure if this is accurate but:
U.S. Launch Prices
1977: Atari 2600 - $199
1982: ColecoVision - $175
1982: Atari 5200 - $269
1985: Nintendo Entertainment System - $199
1986: Atari 7800 - $139
1986: Sega Master System - $199
1989: TurboGrafx-16 - $199
1989: Sega Genesis - $189
1990: SNK NeoGeo - $649
1991: Super Nintendo - $199
1993: 3DO - $699
1993: Atari Jaguar - $249
1995: Sega Saturn - $399
1995: PlayStation - $299
1996: Nintendo 64 - $199
1999: Sega Dreamcast - $199
2000: PlayStation 2 - $299
2001: Nintendo GameCube - $199
2001: Xbox - $299
2005: Xbox 360 - $299 / $399
2006: PlayStation 3 - $499 / $599
2006: Nintendo Wii - $249
Xbox
USA (November 2001) - $299 USD
Canada (November 2001) - $449 CAD
Japan (February 2002) - ¥34,800
UK (March 2002) - £299 (£199)*
Europe (March 2002) - €479 (€299)*
Australia (March 2002) - $649 ($399)* AUD
New Zealand (October 2002) - $499 NZD
Singapore (November 2002) - $388 SGD
Xbox 360 (Core / Premium)
USA (November 2005) - $299 / $399 USD
Canada (November 2005) - $399 / $499 CAD
UK (December 2005) - £209 / £279
Europe (December 2005) - €299 / €399
Japan (December 2005) - ¥29,800 / ¥39,795
Mexico (February 2006) - $3,999 / $4,999 Pesos
South Korea (February 2006) - 339,000 / 419,000 Won
Australia (March 2006) - $499 / $649 AUD
New Zealand (March 2006) - $549 / $719 NZD
Singapore (March 2006) - $535 / $660 SGD
Taiwan (March 2006) - $9,970 / $12,980 TWD
India (September 2006) - Rs. 19,990 / 23,990
South Africa (September 2006) - R2,699 / R3,699
Poland (November 2006) - 1,199 / 1,599 zl
Hungary (November 2006) - 74,999 / 99,999 Ft
Czech (November 2006) - 8,999 / 11,499 Kc
Slovakia (November 2006) - 11,499 / 15,495 Sk
SNES
Japan (November 1990) - ¥25,000
USA (August 1991) - $199 USD
UK (April 1992) - £149
N64
Japan (June 1996) - ¥25,000
USA (September 1996) - $199 USD
GameCube
Japan (September 2001) - ¥25,000
USA (November 2001) - $199 USD
Canada (November 2001) - $299 CAD
UK (May 2002) - £129
Europe (May 2002) - €199
Australia (May 2002) - $329 AUD
Wii
USA (November 2006) - $249 USD
Canada (November 2006) - $279 CAD
Japan (December 2006) - ¥25,000
UK (December 2006) - £179
Europe (December 2006) - €249
Australia (December 2006) - $399 AUD
PS1
Japan (December 1994) - ¥39,800
USA (September 1995) - $299 USD
UK (September 1995) - £299
PS2
Japan (March 2000) - ¥39,800
USA (October 2000) - $299 USD
Canada (October 2000) - $449 CAD
UK (November 2000) - £299
Europe (November 2000) - €430
Australia (November 2000) - $749 AUD
PS3 (Core / Premium)
Japan (November 2006) - ¥49,800 / Open
USA (November 2006) - $499 / $599 USD
Canada (November 2006) - $549 / $659 CAD
Hong Kong (November 2006) - $3,180 / $3,780 HKD
Taiwan (November 2006) - $14,980 / $17,980 TWD
UK (March 2007) - £425 (Premium)
Europe (March 2007) - €499 / €599
Australia (March 2007) - $829 / $999 AUD
New Zealand (March 2007) - $999 / $1,199 NZD
Sega Master System
USA (June 1986) - $199 USD
Sega Genesis
Japan (October 1988) - ¥21,000
USA (September 1989) - $189 USD
UK (November 1990) - £189
Sega Saturn
USA (May 1995) - $399 USD
Sega Dreamcast
Japan (November 1998) - ¥29,800
USA (September 1999) - $199 USD
UK (October 1999) - £199
TurboGrafx-16
USA (August 1989) - $199 USD
NeoGeo
USA (Fall 1990) - $649 USD
3DO
USA (October 1993) - $699 USD
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Lakshmi.Byrth
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By Lakshmi.Byrth 2012-03-18 20:10:43
Computers outperform consoles hands down. If we were going to see pcs take over the video game market we would have seen it already.
Consoles provide two things computers generally don't.
1) An integrated online community (PSN, Live, and rumors are steam is developing a console of their own.)
2) A standard that game designers have to adhere to. There is no standard computer, but if you buy a ps3 you'll know all ps3 games work on it without having to replace all your old components.
1) Oh darn, here I thought we were talking via an online community for a game that's on PC.
2) What? Games may develop beyond the capabilities of your computer, but any game released for PC that does that could not be released for a console in the first place. You don't actually limit yourself by just buying a PC now and only playing the games that work on it relative to buying a PS3 and only playing the games that work on it. When the console ship starts sinking and developers start hopping to computer-exclusive games, I'd recommend finding the nearest lifeboat because that ***is going down fast. The only thing that keeps consoles afloat is exclusive developers.
Also, looking at that list it seems console prices have remained relatively stable (accounting for inflation) over time. PC prices, however, have fallen. The Pentium II processor's cut-rate introduction price was over $700 in 1998. The i7 is currently ~$300.
 Leviathan.Bimbam
サーバ: Leviathan
Game: FFXI
Posts: 159
By Leviathan.Bimbam 2012-03-18 20:16:59
http://www.onlive.com/
Cloud gaming will kill consoles, eventually.
As for the PC vs. console thing.
1. Console games are more difficult to pirate.
2. Standard consumers will not have the knowledge to build a gaming machine on a budget. So spending a similar amount as a console will not get them a comparable machine. It will get them integrated graphics.
3. Console games by design incorporate local multi-player and controller support leading to social lounge gameplay. While PC games predominantly support using a controller, not much thought is put into it and generally speaking lead to introverted gameplay in a separate room.
4. While not quite as noticeable as it was, many consoles have rights to game series that will likely never be multi-format. As such you don't get to see half of them on the PC if/when you do, they are often craptastic ports. This works in both ways at least.
Cerberus.Eugene
サーバ: Cerberus
Game: FFXI
Posts: 6999
By Cerberus.Eugene 2012-03-18 20:17:51
Computers outperform consoles hands down. If we were going to see pcs take over the video game market we would have seen it already.
Consoles provide two things computers generally don't.
1) An integrated online community (PSN, Live, and rumors are steam is developing a console of their own.)
2) A standard that game designers have to adhere to. There is no standard computer, but if you buy a ps3 you'll know all ps3 games work on it without having to replace all your old components.
1) Oh darn, here I thought we were talking via an online community for a game that's on PC.
2) What? Games may develop beyond the capabilities of your computer, but any game released for PC that does that could not be released for a console in the first place. You don't actually limit yourself by just buying a PC now and only playing the games that work on it relative to buying a PS3 and only playing the games that work on it. When the console ship starts sinking and developers start hopping to computer-exclusive games, I'd recommend finding the nearest lifeboat because that ***is going down fast. The only thing that keeps consoles afloat is exclusive developers.
Your friend list on Playonline won't translate to a friend list on Wow. But your friendlist for x game on live will translate to friendlist on y game on live. Closest thing pc has to PSN or live is steam. Facebook connect is slowly growing larger. having one login/identity for everything is becoming more popular.
Console manufactures still have ways of attracting developers. EA isn't going to stop developing for consoles just because they've launched origin lol. There are plenty of producers and developers who make games that end up on PCs that still make games exclusively for consoles as well.
PS3 and 360 set a standard. If you are on a budget and you want to buy the newest PC game you run the risk of having a computer that can't handle it, or handles it only on lowest settings. If you buy a console at the start of a generation you are guaranteed that every single game developed for that console will run on that console at some level of quality for the next 5+ years.
 Ragnarok.Eriina
サーバ: Ragnarok
Game: FFXI
Posts: 294
By Ragnarok.Eriina 2012-03-18 20:21:01
The point you guys are missing is that it's not the hardcore gamers who are already into console gaming that are gonna make the biggest impact on this issue. It's the moms and dads buying the latest doo-dad for their kids at Christmas and birthday time.
Think about how you got your first console ever.
For me it was dad put a NES under the tree one Christmas because it was the hot new tech toy and he thought it was cool. He's not a gamer. He wasn't interested in immersive experiences. He just saw the marketing blitz and wanted to get something neat at Christmas time. As a result "I" became a gamer yes.
But take that same scenario today and I could see a dad in that same situation grab an iPad instead of a console and producing a kid that never becomes a fan of or even cares about console gaming.
Here's another thought, kid with no money in my childhood would get a paper route or do chores do buy the cool stuff they saw on TV. Today, kids can play games for free (or for a few dollars) at home from their PC or perhaps their phone.
If I'm already receiving gaming stimulus within my own means as a 10 year old, what is my motivation to save up 50$ to go out and buy something? Console may be better or more immersive but if I'm already satisfied doing something that's right in front of me I'm less motivated to bother looking to consoles, much less get one.
So that's, I think, the point. People who already love consoles will of course continue to love them. Problem is less NEW generation dads and kids will bother to get into consoles from here on out in the face of cheaper and more easily accessible alternatives that "seem" cooler anyway.
Cerberus.Eugene
サーバ: Cerberus
Game: FFXI
Posts: 6999
By Cerberus.Eugene 2012-03-18 20:22:10
all the processing is done server end? That's got to put a huge strain on their infrastructure.
I read an article on IGN that made me start thinking. The article in I read is below, spoilered because people are focusing too much on IGN and not the actual discussion, is really just about whether or not free-to-play gaming is becoming serious competition in the gaming market. Is the newer generation becoming more involved in free-to-play gaming over consoles? In the past the consoles have dominated the market pushing out arcades, but now that the internet has become what it is today and the newer generation of players are being influenced by something we've never really had to deal with before is there risk for major console companies to fall out because of this new competition?
There are pro's and con's to each side, and would like discussion to be about that and not that this article came from IGN.
Are Consoles Dead?
Pundits are insisting that games consoles are headed for doom. IGN offers an
| opinion on the biggest question in gaming. | by Colin Campbell, March 15, 2012 |
The traditional games business is worth around $25 billion a year, so the obvious answer to the question of whether or not consoles are dead, is a resounding 'what the hell are you talking about?'
Not only, but consoles are freakin' awesome. They are built to play games. Certainly, they are ugly brutes, hideous noisy boxes, but by all that is holy, they make life good. This is why talk of their 'death' is so upsetting.
Nevertheless, talk we must.
It's true that consoles move through existence with every sign of vitality, but there are suggestions of an inner sickness, a sense of impending dilapidation. Sorrow awaits.
Things go from hale and hearty to stone cold and underground in a spectacularly short period of time, most especially in the tech and entertainment businesses.
Ben Cousins' argument from GDC
Between them, the business units at Sony and Microsoft have lost a whacking $10 billion since 2000.
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None of this is good. The things that we are supposed to believe will "replace" consoles aren't as good at playing games, aren't designed for this specific, sacred purpose, aren't as emotionally interesting. The death of consoles, if such is their fate, would be a disaster for 'gaming' as we who game understand the term. There is no circle of life crap going on here. It's all bad.
These notions, and the arguments that follow in this article, will be dominating strategic thinking at Sony and Microsoft, as leaders at these august firms decide how to approach their next generation consoles.
For the people who make the consoles, this play of launching new machines represents the biggest risks on both companies' books. If they get this wrong, it would be catastrophic for them.
Little wonder they are holding back. (There are no plans for either Sony or Microsoft to show a new machine at E3 this year.)
Look at it from their point of view. Between them, the business units at Sony and Microsoft have lost a whacking $10 billion since 2000. The opportunity that greeted both companies at the dawn of the century was ownership of the living room, a place at the center of consumer's entertainment lives. It was a noble investment.
But that opportunity does not look anywhere near as attractive now.
In 2000, the year the world's best-selling console ever was launched, Apple was still 12 months away from launching iPhone's progenitor iPod and thereby changing the history of entertainment. Now it's the most valuable company in the world and the most powerful player in the gaming business. Facebook didn't exist. Free-to-play made zero sense. PC gaming was screwed. The assumptions and the projections Sony and Microsoft were making back then just don't exist anymore.
The confidence of yesteryear.
When Peter Moore bound onto the stage at various E3s in the middle part of the last decade, he was seriously arguing that consoles would be the devices through which we consumed entertainment and communicated with one another. At the time, it seemed plausible.
If he tried that shtick today, he' be dragged away by burly nurses, and semi-gently invited to spend some quiet time in a sparsely furnished room.
It's not just the titanic cost, the gargantuan risk this undertaking represents. Problem is, the opportunity for riches is undoubtedly smaller than it's ever been before. For the first time in many console generations, no-one is seriously predicting that the next generation will be bigger than the last. Not even Jack Tretton.
| Where are the New Consoles? |
So the answer to the question about the death of consoles can be found in how the console manufacturers are behaving. And here's the thing. They don't look too keen, do they? If history is any indicator, we are well past due some new machines.
The console guys are looking at this like the man who, having furtively popped into Burger King on his way back from work, is presented at home with a surprisingly large spaghetti bolognese.
At the beginning of this year, Nanea Reeves was mocked and derided for suggesting that one company in the current console battle might drop out. Look, it's unlikely but it's really not that crazy. Sony is seriously short of dough. Microsoft is just starting to claw back some of its investments in the games business.
There are a lot of great business reasons why either of these companies might find an urgently hot thing to fill their attention. The world has changed.
Will PlayStation 4 look like this?
Sony boss Kaz Hirai loves games, but not enough to bring one of Japan's greatest ever corporations to its knees. Whatever form PlayStation 4 takes, he's got to come up with something genuinely new. A better-graphics box at $400? Not going to work.
Already we hear stories of an next Xbox that doesn't even have a disk drive. What kinda console is that? Well, maybe it's one that reflects a changing reality - that the future is certainly not about going to the mall and buying a $60 game about shooting people. In England, the country's biggest retailer of games is about to go bust. If that's not a bad sign, then what is?
And what of Nintendo, the original high priest of console-dom, keeper of the flame? It is a company that has never looked less likely to stand astride the Chichen Itza of global entertainment. It is a supplicant, in the thrall of the new gods. We are told that 3DS is a successful handheld gaming device, Compared to what Vita? Sure. Compared to iPhone? Bow down Mario. Grovel in the dirt Donkey Kong.
Even Wii U, the one and only "next generation" console that we have seen looks a lot like a certain other Apple product. A handheld screen, by golly. So much for disruptive technology. So much for blue sky thinking.
A box.
Everyone in gaming is getting ready for the next generation consoles to arrive. We are able to write off 20% year-on-year declines in game sales as a mere symptom of late-cycle ennui and lower numbers of big game releases.
But there are other symptoms that are not so easily brushed aside. The stock value of companies like EA and Activision have been steadily dropping for the last few years. You want to blame the economy? Sure, go ahead.
But PC gaming has been exploding. More people spend more time playing games than ever before. Meanwhile, the top five games companies by value have halved in value, and those that have dropped out of the list- traditional games publishers - have been replaced by free-to-play and social companies.
Still blaming the economy?
ngmoco's Ben Cousins pointed all this out at GDC last week. He also showed us a graph comparing the history of the arcade game business to that of the console game business.
The enemy of consoles?
At some point in 1999, consoles overtook arcades, which have since become almost entirely irrelevant both as a business and as a way to consume interactive entertainment. That same year, consoles officially became as good as arcades, graphics-wise, with the launch of Dreamcast.
This year, we have seen the launch of the new iPad, a device which, despite its current whizzery, offers future powers we can only imagine. Offer a man from Mars the chance to reach out and grab an iPad or an Xbox 360. Which will it be?
But consoles are seriously great devices, important, essential. In an interview this week, Epic founder Tim Sweeney, one of the smartest thinkers in this business, described them in the simplest terms, as perfectly formed for the purpose of playing games. They are entirely engineered to output fast-moving graphics. They are connected to handheld controllers which have no other purpose than to control games. Their entire eco-system is about competition, fun, excitement.
Sweeney added that when the next generation does come - in whatever form - it will provide a graphical leap that the iPads of this world will take eight years or so to match. Eight years! That's 2020.
So, if we leave PC gaming aside, consoles will still be the best way to consume games for a span of time encompassing three more Olympic games and two World Cups and maybe even another Diablo game.
People talk about the fact that 500 million people have played Angry Birds compared to 25 million players of Call of Duty. But, really, these numbers are like comparing flying pigs with flying helicopters.
Also, Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo are smart. It isn't beyond the realms of possibility that any of them, possibly all of them, will create something that surprises everyone, even Apple. Perhaps we will see a unified platform, or a cloud system that really works or, hell, who knows.
The fact is that consoles are under sustained attack from alternative devices and platforms like mobile and social and free-to-play. It's like horde mode. The enemy has the numbers. The console has the firepower.
Who can predict the outcome with certainty?
But here's an indisputable idea. Any person of good sense must understand which side to root for.
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