Linen Coin Purse Amounts Raised?

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2010-06-21
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フォーラム » FFXI » Endgame » Salvage/Assault » Linen Coin Purse Amounts Raised?
Linen Coin Purse Amounts Raised?
 Bahamut.Ravael
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By Bahamut.Ravael 2015-08-21 23:22:44  
Hi everyone. I have been tracking alexandrite amounts from linen coin purses in an Excel spreadsheet for several months now. At first, the average alexandrite amount per pouch remained steady at about around 75, which is close to the expected value of 74.5 if we assume that the amount gained from a linen coin purse is a truly random number between 50 and 99.

Here's where it gets interesting. Recently, I have noticed the mean shifting upward dramatically. While looking for an explanation, I noted that I was no longer seeing any amount less than 70. In fact, in the last 17 runs (which have NOT been daily), all of the amounts that I have received have been 70 or higher with an average of 84.25 (with one notable exception - I'll get to that next).

This is an extremely statistically significant shift. My initial assumption was that numbers below 70 were no longer possible, except on one run where I got a double linen drop where the second purse I opened contained exactly 50.

This leads me to a few new possible hypotheses:

1. All purses now contain between 70-99 alexandrites, or 50.
2. Only the first linen purse opened in a given day (JP midnight to JP midnight) contains between 70-99.
3. I have come across a meaningless statistical anomaly.
4. Something else.

So, to help solve this mystery, let's get the community to pitch in their numbers to see what the truth actually is. Please share your findings, and include the following:

1. Your linen coin purse amount.
2. Where and when you got it.
3. How many purses you have obtained that day.
4. The number of Rhapsody KIs that you hold.
5. Any other information you deem relevant.

Note: I haven't obtained enough cotton coin purses to notice anything unusual, just linens.
 Siren.Barber
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By Siren.Barber 2015-08-22 00:10:28  
I just did my first run in a week. 57. Have all KI etc. It's been pretty rare the last 3 weeks for me to get one with more than 60 tbh. If someone would have written a post saying they lowered the average I probably would have backed them up. Oh well, luck is luck it seems.
 Phoenix.Dabackpack
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By Phoenix.Dabackpack 2015-08-22 00:14:53  
What's your sample size?
EDIT: Oh it's 17. But what about the anomaly? You can't just ignore it.
EDIT 2: Double never mind, I can't read.
 Bahamut.Ravael
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By Bahamut.Ravael 2015-08-22 00:15:21  
Siren.Barber said: »
I just did my first run in a week. 57. Have all KI etc. It's been pretty rare the last 3 weeks for me to get one with more than 60 tbh. If someone would have written a post saying they lowered the average I probably would have backed them up. Oh well, luck is luck it seems.

Ha. Well, if it turns out I'm just on one of those strange runs of luck, then I wouldn't be offended. Which zone do you do?
 Bahamut.Ravael
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By Bahamut.Ravael 2015-08-22 00:18:04  
Phoenix.Dabackpack said: »
What's your sample size?
EDIT: Oh it's 17. But what about the anomaly? You can't just ignore it.

68 is my total sample size, with 17 as the anomaly. I haven't completely ruled anything out quite yet, so don't worry. I don't treat such insane statistical deviations lightly. I'd like to see more data come in.
 Lakshmi.Ratie
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By Lakshmi.Ratie 2015-08-22 00:24:41  
How recent would you say is recent? My last double drop occurred on the 22nd of July in Silver Sea II. It was the only salvage run I had done during that particular JP day, and at the time I had the first 3 rhapsodies Keyitems

2422: Ratie uses a linen coin purse.
2423: Ratie receives 85 piece of alexandrite.
2424: Ratie uses a linen coin purse.
2425: Ratie receives 91 piece of alexandrite.

Did the run along with a mule, with both pouches dropping to the one character.
 Bahamut.Ravael
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By Bahamut.Ravael 2015-08-22 00:37:21  
Probably recent enough. How are your single drop linens looking?
 Lakshmi.Ratie
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By Lakshmi.Ratie 2015-08-22 01:20:49  

JP midnight in my timezone is about 1-2am, so the multiple run days are all in the same JP Day.
Admittedly, I've not done any salvage in the past month x.x
HTH.
 Bahamut.Vinedrius
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By Bahamut.Vinedrius 2015-08-22 02:25:49  
I open lots of sub-70 linen pouches. It is pure rng.
 Bahamut.Ravael
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By Bahamut.Ravael 2015-08-22 11:46:34  
Mmkay, that sounds like it debunks a fair number of my theories. I'd like to see more numbers from AR II, but I'm not holding my breath at this point. I'll do ten more from there and probably update the thread at that point if my streak is still going. If it's true RNG, then there's only about a .6% percent chance that the 70+ numbers will hold up for that long.
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