Treasure Hunter Observations For Omen Caturae

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Treasure Hunter Observations for Omen Caturae
 Quetzalcoatl.Chanceikin
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By Quetzalcoatl.Chanceikin 2017-01-27 09:32:29  
We have been doing Omen nearly every day since it's inception. Having done a lot of testing for a college class on Empyrean Mobs in abyssea back in the day(I mention this because I am noticing similar trends - IE: TH affected Empy Weapon drops and TH seems to favor AF upgrade items in Omen). I have been making some observations about Treasure Hunter's effect on the Caturae mega bosses in Omen and was curious to get more information from other players.

First and foremost, let me explain some things so that people participating in this conversation can better assist each other and the community.

1. It is entirely possible that these observations and conversation could be moot. There is an outright chance that Treasure Hunter has NO effect on drops. I don't believe that theory, but I wanted to point it out before anyone responded.
2. The Rule of One - FFXI always has a chance for success and always has a chance for failure. It is entirely possible to have an outcome where TH should produce an outcome but does not. There is never a 100% chance or 0% chance at an outcome.
3. Our setup is mostly a Ranged setup due to convenience. All TH is coming from rangers and accept that when I'm speaking to our observations we're talking about an average TH rating of 5 or 6.

When you kill one of the Caturae, the treasure drops have 3 slots. Slot 1 is always the mob's scale upgrade item for certain JSE. Slot 2 is either a scale, an accessory item, or a body. Slot 3 is always a crafting item.

Since Slot 1 and 3 are always the same thing, it's my observation that TH does not affect either slot.

Now.. with Slot 2, and the control here is only about 60 runs, but I have noticed that THing the mob makes it more common for a second scale instead of an item. We stopped using TH and the outcomes have been more favorable in terms of items. In fact, our last run netted us an Ashera Harness. Which begs the question.. does TH have a significant chance of forcing 2 scales? And if so, does not using TH give you more of like a D Ring RNG on drops.. where no TH = Item 99% and Body 1%.

Maybe this post is a little convoluted, but really I'm just looking for other people's observations and if they're noticing the same type of trend as I am.
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 Asura.Sechs
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By Asura.Sechs 2017-01-27 09:38:19  
Quetzalcoatl.Chanceikin said: »
2. The Rule of One - FFXI always has a chance for success and always has a chance for failure. It is entirely possible to have an outcome where TH should produce an outcome but does not. There is never a 100% chance or 0% chance at an outcome.
Useless remark, but while the large majority of things within FFXI are indeed "chances" at something, there are indeed some things which are absolutely 100% guaranteed.

Regardless of this, your theory sounds interesting. If true, it would mean that TH would actually be detrimental instead of beneficial, if someone is hunting for items instead of accessories/body (and I assume most people are exactely looking for those).

Interested on seeing this conversation evolve into something useful.
 Leviathan.Comeatmebro
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By Leviathan.Comeatmebro 2017-01-27 09:53:24  
Whole lot of big words and hype for having 0 actual data for anyone to look at.

SE outright said that TH doesn't effect defending ring, so I'd say it's a fair bet the same system is implemented on other shared drops.
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 Asura.Sechs
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By Asura.Sechs 2017-01-27 09:57:11  
Leviathan.Comeatmebro said: »
SE outright said that TH doesn't effect defending ring, so I'd say it's a fair bet the same system is implemented on other shared drops.
The "shared slot" system (it's either item A or item B, with A having high % and B low %) has been used in FFXI in multiple scenarios, I think not just KB, right?
So yeah, I was assuming the situation to be similar for Omen as well (following the discussion on BG) and I bet most people were assuming the same as well.

Still, here it's a 4 items on 1 slot situation, so slightly different.
I haven't seen -yet- any data hinting that things could be different, but it is an interesting theory to be thinking of regardless, no?
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 Quetzalcoatl.Chanceikin
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By Quetzalcoatl.Chanceikin 2017-01-27 09:57:59  
Leviathan.Comeatmebro said: »
Whole lot of big words and hype for having 0 actual data for anyone to look at.

SE outright said that TH doesn't effect defending ring, so I'd say it's a fair bet the same system is implemented on other shared drops.

I know - the random number generator or RNG for D Ring is Pixie 99% or Ring 1%. To break it down into a crude scenario that everyone understands. So in a LACK of TH, is that how the RNG behaves for the item or body? TH effect is on scale appearing(theoretically), not item or body.

Also, I don't have a spreadsheet for this, but I have noticed that out of 60 controls roughly that with TH on the mob.. a second scale appears often. Without it, I haven't seen a second scale.

Please constructive talk only.
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By Leviathan.Comeatmebro 2017-01-27 10:00:59  
That is constructive talk. It's not my fault you missed the point.

The slot for dring/pixie is a 100% drop. The distribution is roughly 95% pixie 5% ring. SE outright stated in an interview that TH does not change the odds of what drops in that slot.

The slot for scale/item is a 100% drop. The distribution is [data missing]. As it's using the same drop system, it's very likely that it uses the same code. If TH doesn't alter the ratio on the first, it's unlikely it alters the second.

I wasn't saying I didn't understand your first post, simply that you made it much more complicated than it needed to be. 'I think you get a second scale more often with TH' is all you said, with absolutely 0 data to back it up.
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By Leviathan.Comeatmebro 2017-01-27 10:04:26  
Additional note: we already know of other 100% drops with more than 2 possible drops. Torques from the lv60 BCNM are a good example, or the first slot of any escha NM's pool.

You personally don't have enough data to say anything conclusively looking at it, if you even bothered to log actual numbers instead of throwing out this halfassed observation.

However, if you apply occam's razor to the design, it's not very likely they did one roll to decide if you got item/scale and then a second to determine which item. It's much more likely the scale was simply lumped into the drop slot and given a chunk of the probability.. the same model we see in all of escha.
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 Quetzalcoatl.Chanceikin
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By Quetzalcoatl.Chanceikin 2017-01-27 10:11:03  
I don't have enough data, I am asking other people for their data. That is the whole nature of the post. Seems pretty no-brainer to me.

The rule of 1 applies to TH situations, not to situations where TH doesn't apply. My apologies for the lack of specification.

I'm pleased that you are able to express your opinions, but they're not productive. That being said, you've made them, let's move on. If you don't want to believe my theory, cool, you made that clear - but I'm looking for data to assist with further formulation. If something can be derived from this, it is beneficial to the community.
 Fenrir.Snaps
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By Fenrir.Snaps 2017-01-27 10:27:23  
His remarks are productive because they keep the discussed focused what it should be - actual data. You didn't post any of your data. You posted anecdotal observations and asked others for their anecdotal observations (i.e. confirmation bias.)
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By clearlyamule 2017-01-27 10:32:57  
I'll agree if you want to prove/disprove a theory gunna need hard data. You said you done around 60 control runs and seemed to keep drops in mind. So what exactly were the amounts of each dropped with and without th? Want to work data let's start with the data you sound like and should've been collecting in the course of trying to test this theory out
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By Odin.Taffy 2017-01-27 10:45:48  
3 Drops are not guaranteed - We have done many runs with only 2 drops post update. Did 2 runs Wednesday, 2 Gin's scales and a leather and a single scale and a leather. That means if 2 slots are guaranteed and the 3rd slot is not then surely TH would be a benefit? I have to agree that TH will not affect what item you get in a slot that has many different items. This does not mean it won't help force the slot?

I will say this - I'm probably even between the number of runs I have done on thf vs cor - I'd actually argue in my observations I see 2 scales more frequently when on Cor and no TH. Then again, I haven't been paying attention to this and have no data to back that up so wouldn't ever make that assertion. :)
 Leviathan.Comeatmebro
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By Leviathan.Comeatmebro 2017-01-27 10:52:25  
Keep in mind if your entire group has a certain drop, it will be discarded instead of entering the pool.
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 Asura.Saevel
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By Asura.Saevel 2017-01-27 11:16:03  
Omen Boss's have 3 drop slots at 100% and 0 drop slots are lower percentages. TH absolutely under no circumstances alters the drop table, all it does is raise the probability of an additional slot being unlocked.

Omen's NMs drop slots look like this
Code
100% [Table 1]
100% [Table 2]
100% [Table 3]

[Table 1]
100% Scale

[Table 2] (just example)
75% Scale
12% Accessory 1
12% Accessory 2
1% Body

[Table 3]
100% Material


And that it. It first does a roll to see how many tables opened, and in this case it's always all 3. Then it does a roll on each table to determine the drops, and in this case two of the three are 100% for one item with the other table having several choices but not in an even distribution. TH never effects distributions because it's impossible for the game to determine which of those items your after (though pretty common sense for us).

A NM that TH "works on" like the BC's looks like this
Code
100% [Table 1]
100% [Table 2]
10% [Table 1]
10% [Table 2]

[Table 1]
Random crafting stuff

[Table 2]
30% Item 1
30% Item 2
30% Item 3
10% Item 4


TH would raise the chance of the 3rd and 4th slot opening which would raise the materials and loot drop rate. It wouldn't alter the chance of any particular item appearing within that table.
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 Quetzalcoatl.Chanceikin
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By Quetzalcoatl.Chanceikin 2017-01-27 12:12:02  
Odin.Taffy said: »
3 Drops are not guaranteed - We have done many runs with only 2 drops post update. Did 2 runs Wednesday, 2 Gin's scales and a leather and a single scale and a leather. That means if 2 slots are guaranteed and the 3rd slot is not then surely TH would be a benefit? I have to agree that TH will not affect what item you get in a slot that has many different items. This does not mean it won't help force the slot?

I will say this - I'm probably even between the number of runs I have done on thf vs cor - I'd actually argue in my observations I see 2 scales more frequently when on Cor and no TH. Then again, I haven't been paying attention to this and have no data to back that up so wouldn't ever make that assertion. :)

Do you know offhand whether or not everyone had all of the accessory drops from said mob? I'm curious the outcome if everyone has all of the items except for the body and wonder if that's the case here.

I have never seen less than 3 drops since the update.
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By Quetzalcoatl.Chanceikin 2017-01-27 12:20:52  
Asura.Saevel said: »
Omen Boss's have 3 drop slots at 100% and 0 drop slots are lower percentages. TH absolutely under no circumstances alters the drop table, all it does is raise the probability of an additional slot being unlocked.

Thank you much for the explanation. I agree that TH may have no effect at all, and this conversation is really just to kind of get people's observations on it.

I did a statistics project on TH on Empyrean mobs, the control was 100 glavoids and 100 chloris. Keeping in mind that this is prior to the TH update.. wherein you used to only be able to proc 12 and TH had a stronger effect than it does now. At that time, my understanding was that TH had different effects on different mobs.

The experiment was TH effects on Chloris Buds and Glavoid Fangs, specifically the second drop, since the first is guaranteed. With few outliers (3-5 per mob), TH after 4 roughly gave a 10.1% increase in your chance that you got a second drop. I understand that this could apply specifically to empyrean mob drops only and nothing else in the game.. but is it not possible to apply to slot 2 in this situation?

Is the only current TH mechanic in this game to open additional slots (one can easily observe this when doing Escha mobs, you get more drops, but quality is still random)?
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By Asura.Echandra 2017-01-27 12:25:43  
All this overthinking is nice, and I look forward to my double scale drop and grind for cards. People should have cried about this instead of thinker's pain sync.
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By Asura.Saevel 2017-01-27 12:31:46  
Quetzalcoatl.Chanceikin said: »
I agree that TH may have no effect at all, and this conversation is really just to kind of get people's observations on it.

We've personally tried lots of TH vs no TH and there was absolutely zero difference.
Code
I did a statistics project on TH on Empyrean mobs, the control was 100 glavoids and 100 chloris. Keeping in mind that this is prior to the TH update.. wherein you used to only be able to proc 12 and TH had a stronger effect than it does now. At that time, my understanding was that TH had different effects on different mobs.

The experiment was TH effects on Chloris Buds and Glavoid Fangs, specifically the second drop, since the first is guaranteed. With few outliers (3-5 per mob), TH after 4 roughly gave a 10.1% increase in your chance that you got a second drop. I understand that this could apply specifically to empyrean mob drops only and nothing else in the game.. but is it not possible to apply to slot 2 in this situation?


Umm you just agreed with me...

The second drop is a different drop slot with it's own table, it doesn't share with any other item.
Code
100% [Table 1]
10% [Table 1] / 100% [Table 1] [Yellow Proc]
10% [Table 2] / 100% [Table 2] [Blue Proc]


Then a few more table 3's which were some random items. This is just an example not the actual data but it's how Emp NM's were designed. Procing RYB had the same effect as TH but on a much larger scale. The Proc didn't change the individual drop distributions.


Your mistake is assuming all possible drops are existing in the same table and open to all slots, which is incorrect. Some tables consist of only a single item.
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By clearlyamule 2017-01-27 12:32:03  
Quetzalcoatl.Chanceikin said: »
Do you know offhand whether or not everyone had all of the accessory drops from said mob? I'm curious the outcome if everyone has all of the items except for the body and wonder if that's the case here.

I have never seen less than 3 drops since the update.

I actually did a semi informal test partly to see if bodies could be an extra slot that was obscured by the whole everyone has the rare item thing. And sure enough if I made sure one character had non of the equipment exactly 3 drops every time including when I got body
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By Fenrir.Nightfyre 2017-01-27 12:41:04  
Quetzalcoatl.Chanceikin said: »
Do you know offhand whether or not everyone had all of the accessory drops from said mob? I'm curious the outcome if everyone has all of the items except for the body and wonder if that's the case here.
A long time ago it was possible to force a certain drop in fixed slots if the competing item(s) were Rare and everyone in party/alliance had one. This was patched out after people started using it to force Dring drops.
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 Asura.Saevel
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By Asura.Saevel 2017-01-27 12:45:28  
Fenrir.Nightfyre said: »
Quetzalcoatl.Chanceikin said: »
Do you know offhand whether or not everyone had all of the accessory drops from said mob? I'm curious the outcome if everyone has all of the items except for the body and wonder if that's the case here.
A long time ago it was possible to force a certain drop in fixed slots if the competing item(s) were Rare and everyone in party/alliance had one. This was patched out after people started using it to force Dring drops.

Oh how I remember that, KB at 1~2% anyone who didn't have a pixie earring would be kicked out of alliance.
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By Asura.Bloodlusty 2017-01-27 12:47:57  
Quetzalcoatl.Chanceikin said: »
Having done a lot of testing for a college class on Empyrean Mobs in abyssea back in the day(


Did you fail the course?
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 Cerberus.Kylos
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By Cerberus.Kylos 2017-01-27 12:55:10  
I don't think it's right to insult the OP for inquiring. The forum's here for players to ask (any) questions, and we should respect the fact that someone felt comfortable enough to share their thoughts on this subject.

While to some it comes across like the OP is trying to discover something we didn't already know (with no proof or data), to me it feels like they want to learn how Treasure Hunter works exactly. I believe they got the necessary information and it sure helped me to understand it a little more .. so thanks for the post Chanceikin! And everyone else for the details.
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 Quetzalcoatl.Chanceikin
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By Quetzalcoatl.Chanceikin 2017-01-27 12:57:11  
Asura.Bloodlusty said: »
Quetzalcoatl.Chanceikin said: »
Having done a lot of testing for a college class on Empyrean Mobs in abyssea back in the day(


Did you fail the course?

No.

Asura.Saevel said: »
Quetzalcoatl.Chanceikin said: »
I agree that TH may have no effect at all, and this conversation is really just to kind of get people's observations on it.

We've personally tried lots of TH vs no TH and there was absolutely zero difference.
Code
I did a statistics project on TH on Empyrean mobs, the control was 100 glavoids and 100 chloris. Keeping in mind that this is prior to the TH update.. wherein you used to only be able to proc 12 and TH had a stronger effect than it does now. At that time, my understanding was that TH had different effects on different mobs.

The experiment was TH effects on Chloris Buds and Glavoid Fangs, specifically the second drop, since the first is guaranteed. With few outliers (3-5 per mob), TH after 4 roughly gave a 10.1% increase in your chance that you got a second drop. I understand that this could apply specifically to empyrean mob drops only and nothing else in the game.. but is it not possible to apply to slot 2 in this situation?


Umm you just agreed with me...

The second drop is a different drop slot with it's own table, it doesn't share with any other item.
Code
100% [Table 1]
10% [Table 1] / 100% [Table 1] [Yellow Proc]
10% [Table 2] / 100% [Table 2] [Blue Proc]


Then a few more table 3's which were some random items. This is just an example not the actual data but it's how Emp NM's were designed. Procing RYB had the same effect as TH but on a much larger scale. The Proc didn't change the individual drop distributions.


Your mistake is assuming all possible drops are existing in the same table and open to all slots, which is incorrect. Some tables consist of only a single item.

To be fair, I wasn't trying to disprove your point. You are literally doing what I set out to do with this post - help me eliminate or invalidate theories.
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By Cerberus.Kylos 2017-01-27 13:03:21  
What theories have you got left to be eliminated?
 Quetzalcoatl.Chanceikin
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By Quetzalcoatl.Chanceikin 2017-01-27 13:13:41  
Cerberus.Kylos said: »
I don't think it's right to insult the OP for inquiring. The forum's here for players to ask (any) questions, and we should respect the fact that someone felt comfortable enough to share their thoughts on this subject.

While to some it comes across like the OP is trying to discover something we didn't already know (with no proof or data), to me it feels like they want to learn how Treasure Hunter works exactly. I believe they got the necessary information and it sure helped me to understand it a little more .. so thanks for the post Chanceikin! And everyone else for the details.

To be honest, last time I experimented with Treasure Hunter, most people had no real ideas how it worked. I'm super surprised to learn that there are definitive facts out there now.

Appreciate the kind words, I'm trying to legitimately flesh some things out when I can for the benefit of the group.. had no idea the research was finally done.
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 Cerberus.Kylos
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By Cerberus.Kylos 2017-01-27 13:26:00  
No problem! Clearly you missed it and there's no shame in asking, that's what the forum is here for after all. Would've been nice if those who responded realized you were nothing more than curious and looking for confirmation. There didn't need to be any insults but I guess that's the nature of this forum sometimes .. good luck with your group and Omen, some of us ain't even got that far yet.
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By Fenrir.Nightfyre 2017-01-27 13:31:09  
Cerberus.Kylos said: »
I don't think it's right to insult the OP for inquiring. The forum's here for players to ask (any) questions, and we should respect the fact that someone felt comfortable enough to share their thoughts on this subject.
Advancing a theory with no data to back it up and then expecting everyone else to provide data for you is extremely poor form. Criticism follows accordingly. Inquiring without inserting an unsupported theory would naturally have garnered a different response.
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By Asura.Saevel 2017-01-27 13:31:11  
Quetzalcoatl.Chanceikin said: »
Cerberus.Kylos said: »
I don't think it's right to insult the OP for inquiring. The forum's here for players to ask (any) questions, and we should respect the fact that someone felt comfortable enough to share their thoughts on this subject.

While to some it comes across like the OP is trying to discover something we didn't already know (with no proof or data), to me it feels like they want to learn how Treasure Hunter works exactly. I believe they got the necessary information and it sure helped me to understand it a little more .. so thanks for the post Chanceikin! And everyone else for the details.

To be honest, last time I experimented with Treasure Hunter, most people had no real ideas how it worked. I'm super surprised to learn that there are definitive facts out there now.

Appreciate the kind words, I'm trying to legitimately flesh some things out when I can for the benefit of the group.. had no idea the research was finally done.

There's been info since ToAU era. Some people tested or the Roc birds outside Tav. Tested as THF main, THF sub and no TH. It's how we figured out the slot system. Data was buried though and not spread around much.
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By Cerberus.Kylos 2017-01-27 13:33:16  
Fenrir.Nightfyre said: »
Cerberus.Kylos said: »
I don't think it's right to insult the OP for inquiring. The forum's here for players to ask (any) questions, and we should respect the fact that someone felt comfortable enough to share their thoughts on this subject.
Advancing a theory with no data to back it up and then expecting everyone else to provide data for you is extremely poor form. Criticism follows accordingly. Inquiring without inserting an unsupported theory would naturally have garnered a different response.

I agree they could've provided more of their own data to back up what they were suggesting, but it's not grounds for insult. Or is it? Can we justify why that is? Insulting his intelligence is petty and unnecessary.
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By veddertehtaco 2017-02-01 18:25:24  
Is it possible to get that TH info/example stickier somewhere appropriate as I have never seen it confirmed but always thought it worked like that and ty saevel for posting it
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