While we’re on the topic of the merit discussion, I ran some calculations to simulate how’d merit affect roll potency. And here is the result:

Roll used: Chaos roll Lucky 4 Unlucky 8

Roll behavior used in this calculation:

To make things simple, both merit setup uses same roll behavior to make calculation easier, which is “no bust and fold, but aim for max potency” roll behavior.

Double up on: 1, 2, 5

Snake eye on: 3(to get lucky 4), 6 (for a chance to proc 11, and enhances roll potency without proc), 8 (to get rid of Unlucky), 9 (enhance roll potency and chance for 11), 10(for No.11)

Stop on: 4, 7, 11

No random deal used to reset snake eye, otherwise I’d go insane trying to simulate random deal in the calculation too ._.

Note that in game this isn’t by all end all the best roll behavior in all situations, and it’s quite conservative compare with a more risky approach to double up aggressively.

That being said, I choose this roll behavior to calculate roll potency because:

1) It’s easier for me to calculate potency without having to model bust and fold

2) It’s still situationally a great roll strategy to avoid wasting time on busting and rerolling.

Since there's a lot of calculation going on I put them in spoilers, if you don't like math and numbers skip to last result.

Assuming equal distribution for all rolls, there’s roughly 16.7% of chance to hit each number.

At 5/5 snake eye:

16.7% to hit 1

16.7% to hit 2

16.7% hit 5

For total of 50.1% to double up on 1st roll.

16.7% to hit 3 and snake eye

16.7% to hit 4

For total of 33.4% to get a lucky number on 1st roll

16.7% to hit 6 and use snake eye

6.7% (40% of 16.7%) chance to proc and hit No.11

10% chance not proc and hit No.7

**Result after 1st roll @ 5/5 SE:**

50.1% double up (No.1, 2, 5)

33.4% land on lucky number

6.7% hit No.11

10% hit No.7

If you go 3/5 snake eye then you get:

16.7% to hit 6 and use snake eye

3.3% to proc and hit No.11

13.4% not proc and hit No.7

**Result after 1st roll @ 3/5 SE:**

50.1% double up (No.1, 2, 5)

33.4 land on lucky number

3.3% hit No.11

13.4% hit No.7

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After 1st roll, you have 16.7% of chance to hit No.1. If you double up on 1, the possible attainable numbers are 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.

16.7% to hit 3 and snake eye

16.7% to hit 4

33.4% to land on lucky number = 5.6% of chance to get a lucky number after rolling a 1 on 1st roll.

33.4% to hit 2 or 5 = 5.6% of chance to roll a 1 then double up

16.7% to hit 6 then snake eye, 6.7% proc and hit 11, 10% not proc and hit 7 = 1.1% to roll a 1 then 6 then SE to 11, 1.7% to roll a 1 then 6 then SE to 7.

16.7% to hit 7 and stop = 2.8% to hit 1 then 7

**Result after 2nd roll @ 5/5 SE:**

Lucky number: 33.4% + 5.6% = 39%

No.11: 6.7% + 1.1% = 7.8%

No.7: 10%+1.7% + 2.8%= 14.5%

If you go 3/5 SE then you get:

16.7% to hit 6 then snake eye, 3.3% proc and hit 11, 13.4% not proc and hit 7 = 0.6% to roll a 1 then 6 then SE to 11, 2.2% to roll a 1 then 6 then SE to 7.

**Result after 2nd roll @ 3/5 SE:**

Lucky number: 33.4% + 5.6% = 39%

No.11: 3.3% + 0.6%= 3.9%

No.7: 13.4% + 2.2% + 2.8%= 18.4%

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19.5% of chance to hit No.2 either by landing No.2 on 1st roll (16.7%) or roll a No.1 then double up and get 1 (16.7% of 16.7% = 2.8% of chance)

16.7% + 2.8%=19.5%

If you double up on 2 then you get a chance to land on 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.

33.4% of chance to land on lucky number by landing on 3 then snake eye or land on 4 = 6.5% of chance to land on 2 then lucky

16.7% of chance to hit 5 = 3.3% more chance to hit 5

33.4% of chance to land on 6 or 8 then snake eye. 13.4% to proc on 11, 20% no proc = +2.6% to hit 11, + 2% to hit 7, + 2% to hit 9

16.7% to stop at 7= 3.3% chance to hit 2 then 7

**Result @ 5/5 SE:**

Lucky number: 39% + 6.5% = 45.5%

No.11: 7.8% + 2.6% = 10.4%

No.7: 14.5% + 2% + 3.3% = 19.8%

No.9: 2%

If you go 3/5 SE you got:

33.4% of chance to land on 6 or 8 then snake eye. 6.7% to proc on 11, 26.7% no proc = +1.3% to hit 11, + 2.6% to hit 7, + 2.6% to hit 9

**Result @ 3/5 SE:**

Lucky number: 39% + 6.5% = 45.5%

No.11: 3.9% + 1.3% = 5.2%

No.7: 18.4% + 2.6% + 3.3% = 24.3%

No.9: 2.6%

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22.8% of chance to hit No.5 either by hitting No.5 on 1st try (16.7%) or hit a 1 then double up to 5 (2.8%) or hit a 2 then double up to 5 (3.3%)

16.7% + 2.8% + 3.3% = 22.8%

The possible number obtainable after double up from 5 are: 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11,

50.1% of chance to hit 6, 8, 9 and snake eye = 20% of chance to proc and get 11. 10% chance of no proc and get No.7, 10% chance to get No.9, 10% chance to get No.10.

22.8% x 20%=+4.6% for No.11

22.8% x 10%= + 2.3% for 7, 9 and 10.

16.7% of chance to stop at 7 = +3.8% for 7

16.7% for 10 then snake eye to 11= + 3.8% for 11

16.7% for 11 = + 3.8% for 11

@ 3/5 SE:

50.1% of chance to hit 6, 8, 9 and snake eye = 10% of chance to proc and get 11. 13.4% chance of no proc and get No.7, 13.4% chance to get No.9, 13.4% chance to get No.10.

22.8% x 10% = + 2.3% for No.11

22.8% x 13.4% = + 3.1% for 7, 9 and 10

**Final Result for 5/5 snake eye roll distribution:**
Lucky Number: 45.5%

No.11: 10.4% + 4.6% + 3.8% + 3.8% = 22.6%

No.7: 19.8% + 2.3% + 3.8% = 25.9%

No.9: 2% + 2.3% = 4.3%

No.10: 2.3%

**Final Result for 3/5 snake eye roll distribution:**
Lucky Number: 45.5%

No.11: 5.2% + 2.3% + 3.8% + 3.8% = 15.1%

No.7: 24.3% + 3.1% + 3.8% = 31.2%

No.9: 2.6% + 3.1% + 5.7%

No.10: 3.1%

Chaos roll potency with job bonus:

Lucky: 55.7% attack

No.11: 61.9% attack

No.7: 46.3% attack

No.9: 47.9% attack

No.10: 49.5% attack

**Average chaos roll potency with 5/5 snake eye and all roll potency gears: 54.5%**
(2534.4+ 1399+ 1199+ 206+ 113.9)/100

**Average chaos roll potency with 3/5 snake eye and roll potency gears: 53.4%**
(2534.4+ 934.7+ 1444.6 + 273 + 153.5)/100

Average chaos roll with 5/5 SE and crooked card:

**65.4%**
Avg chaos roll with 3/5 SE and crooked card:

**64.1%**
I’m not sure if my way to calculate roll distribution is ideal or not, or if I calculate anything wrong. If anyone has better way to model roll distribution and avg roll potency, feel free to point it out.

If not then it seems that full time CC bonus with 5/5 WS 3/5 SE has higher avg roll potency than 5/5 SE 3/5 WS.